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2018 Midterm Elections

Brass Cannon

By Brass Cannon
in Colonial Crester's Corner

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Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

Posted
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With political discussion finding its way into other topics thought I would give it a home

I am a big fan of fivethirtyeight myself although RCP is usually pretty “accurate” they do so by calling 3 times as many as it’s ups  I do disagree with their senate map  I think the Florida Gov race will turn Florida Blue.  Possible their model doesn’t have the ability to factor that in

North Dakota looks to be the State that matters  My gut says the state stays Blue if the Kavanaugh vote gets delayed.  Probably goes red if she is forced to vote  

Senate Forecast 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

Not much to talk about with the House  almost certainly going to Democrats  and that even with NCs lines being unconstitutional but still being used  Seems odd.  This trade war is really hurting the GOP.  Reminds me of the WGA strike  in that we are losing more than we ever hope to gain  

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

On our state level the house will continue to be a 7-2  I personally dislike both candidates for District 4.  One just wants to be a yes man for the president which is not congresses job.  And the other has no clue.  

Senate I just don’t see Braun winning  I can’t remember the last time I saw one of his ads and without the power of incumbency.  Plus last I looked he was basically out of money with the Koch Foundation not helping. I think the state stays split  

 

 

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rico

rico

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Rico's thoughts on this?  Constitutional amendment.  Term limits for both the House and Senate.  Both sides are the problem.  You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp.

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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13 minutes ago, rico said:

Rico's thoughts on this?  Constitutional amendment.  Term limits for both the House and Senate.  Both sides are the problem.  You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp.

I think Senators should have 1 term. That way they would vote their beliefs not with their party. House I’m ok with being unlimited. 

 

rico

rico

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4 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said:

I think Senators should have 1 term. That way they would vote their beliefs not with their party. House I’m ok with being unlimited. 

 

I could live with that.

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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5 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said:

Don't know how much I put in to polls, we know how that worked a couple of years ago?

I see a red wave, Trump is still popular, economy is booming and this is what people want......

I honestly can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not

mrflynn03

mrflynn03

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4 hours ago, rico said:

Rico's thoughts on this?  Constitutional amendment.  Term limits for both the House and Senate.  Both sides are the problem.  You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp.

And one 6 year term for president.  Time to work on an agenda and not going into campaign mode after 2 years. 

rico

rico

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26 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

And one 6 year term for president.  Time to work on an agenda and not going into campaign mode after 2 years. 

I don't know if I like that idea.  Let me chew on it for awhile.

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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Not a fan. A president facing re-election is a great way for a referendum on the policy and not the person. Gives them a chance to pivot away from mistakes. I would say that Bush and Obama had better second terms for example 

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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On 9/17 of 2010. Obama had 45 percent approval to 49 disapproval. Trump is at 38 and 56 respectively. -4 versus -18. 

And let’s not forget 2010 was the largest swing that resulted in a change of control since 1948. 

So no Trump is not popular and yes that is going to matter

rico

rico

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Posted
2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said:

On 9/17 of 2010. Obama had 45 percent approval to 49 disapproval. Trump is at 38 and 56 respectively. -4 versus -18. 

And let’s not forget 2010 was the largest swing that resulted in a change of control since 1948. 

So no Trump is not popular and yes that is going to matter

Ummmmmmm.....where are these polls coming from?  Think about that for a moment.

rico

rico

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1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said:

You obviously don’t understand how polling works....

Yeah, I do.  But take a shot to explain it to me from your point of view.

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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4 minutes ago, rico said:

Yeah, I do.  But take a shot to explain it to me from your point of view.

Well good pollsters get a variety of data points sort them by demographics then use these data points weighed appropriately by the voter bases demographics. 

Gallup calls random phone numbers. Using a random distribution with regards to area codes. The rating is based on about 1500 adults. Random distribution with 1500 data points give a relatively high degree of accuracy. 

And after doing some research it appears that recently Gallup has become right leaning if anything 

rico

rico

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15 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said:

When you don't like the data, just pretend like it isn't valid!

Just like the last Presidential election?  Refresh my memory on that one.

Brass Cannon

Brass Cannon

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Just now, rico said:

Just like the last Presidential election?  Refresh my memory on that one.

Lol still celebrating losing by 2 million votes?

1 out of 50 polls were wrong outside the margin of error IIRC in 2016. Yep obviously polling is complete guesswork 

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