Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 With political discussion finding its way into other topics thought I would give it a home I am a big fan of fivethirtyeight myself although RCP is usually pretty “accurate” they do so by calling 3 times as many as it’s ups I do disagree with their senate map I think the Florida Gov race will turn Florida Blue. Possible their model doesn’t have the ability to factor that in North Dakota looks to be the State that matters My gut says the state stays Blue if the Kavanaugh vote gets delayed. Probably goes red if she is forced to vote Senate Forecast https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/ Not much to talk about with the House almost certainly going to Democrats and that even with NCs lines being unconstitutional but still being used Seems odd. This trade war is really hurting the GOP. Reminds me of the WGA strike in that we are losing more than we ever hope to gain https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/ On our state level the house will continue to be a 7-2 I personally dislike both candidates for District 4. One just wants to be a yes man for the president which is not congresses job. And the other has no clue. Senate I just don’t see Braun winning I can’t remember the last time I saw one of his ads and without the power of incumbency. Plus last I looked he was basically out of money with the Koch Foundation not helping. I think the state stays split Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Rico's thoughts on this? Constitutional amendment. Term limits for both the House and Senate. Both sides are the problem. You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, rico said: Rico's thoughts on this? Constitutional amendment. Term limits for both the House and Senate. Both sides are the problem. You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp. I think Senators should have 1 term. That way they would vote their beliefs not with their party. House I’m ok with being unlimited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said: I think Senators should have 1 term. That way they would vote their beliefs not with their party. House I’m ok with being unlimited. I could live with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proud2BAHoosier Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Don't know how much I put in to polls, we know how that worked a couple of years ago? I see a red wave, Trump is still popular, economy is booming and this is what people want...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 5 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said: Don't know how much I put in to polls, we know how that worked a couple of years ago? I see a red wave, Trump is still popular, economy is booming and this is what people want...... I honestly can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proud2BAHoosier Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said: I honestly can’t tell if this is sarcasm or not About the polls or Trump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CauseThatsMyDJ Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said: About the polls or Trump? Trump might be popular with his base, which there is literally nothing he could do to lose that approval, but he isn't popular overall. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trumps-approval-rating-is-down-muellers-is-up-is-there-a-connection/ https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/#historical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 And Polls weren’t really wrong. I think only one out of 50 was wrong outside the margin of error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrflynn03 Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 hours ago, rico said: Rico's thoughts on this? Constitutional amendment. Term limits for both the House and Senate. Both sides are the problem. You might dislike Trump and his policies but he was dead right on one thing...........DC is a swamp. And one 6 year term for president. Time to work on an agenda and not going into campaign mode after 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 26 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said: And one 6 year term for president. Time to work on an agenda and not going into campaign mode after 2 years. I don't know if I like that idea. Let me chew on it for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proud2BAHoosier Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 According to this, Trumps approval numbers were equal to Obama https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-approval-rating-gallup-poll-obama-popularity/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Not a fan. A president facing re-election is a great way for a referendum on the policy and not the person. Gives them a chance to pivot away from mistakes. I would say that Bush and Obama had better second terms for example Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, Proud2BAHoosier said: According to this, Trumps approval numbers were equal to Obama https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/trump-approval-rating-gallup-poll-obama-popularity/ Well A that poll was from 3 months ago and B there’s a reason polls also track disapproval Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 On 9/17 of 2010. Obama had 45 percent approval to 49 disapproval. Trump is at 38 and 56 respectively. -4 versus -18. And let’s not forget 2010 was the largest swing that resulted in a change of control since 1948. So no Trump is not popular and yes that is going to matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Brass Cannon said: On 9/17 of 2010. Obama had 45 percent approval to 49 disapproval. Trump is at 38 and 56 respectively. -4 versus -18. And let’s not forget 2010 was the largest swing that resulted in a change of control since 1948. So no Trump is not popular and yes that is going to matter Ummmmmmm.....where are these polls coming from? Think about that for a moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 2 minutes ago, rico said: Ummmmmmm.....where are these polls coming from? Think about that for a moment. Gallup the pretty well recognized leader in impartial polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 And where are the pollsters from? I lay odds they are from urban areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, rico said: And where are the pollsters from? I lay odds they are from urban areas. You obviously don’t understand how polling works.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 1 minute ago, Brass Cannon said: You obviously don’t understand how polling works.... Yeah, I do. But take a shot to explain it to me from your point of view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, rico said: Yeah, I do. But take a shot to explain it to me from your point of view. Well good pollsters get a variety of data points sort them by demographics then use these data points weighed appropriately by the voter bases demographics. Gallup calls random phone numbers. Using a random distribution with regards to area codes. The rating is based on about 1500 adults. Random distribution with 1500 data points give a relatively high degree of accuracy. And after doing some research it appears that recently Gallup has become right leaning if anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CauseThatsMyDJ Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 17 minutes ago, Brass Cannon said: Gallup the pretty well recognized leader in impartial polling. When you don't like the data, just pretend like it isn't valid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 4 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said: When you don't like the data, just pretend like it isn't valid! Yep in for a rude awakening on November 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted September 17, 2018 Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 15 minutes ago, CauseThatsMyDJ said: When you don't like the data, just pretend like it isn't valid! Just like the last Presidential election? Refresh my memory on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brass Cannon Posted September 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted September 17, 2018 Just now, rico said: Just like the last Presidential election? Refresh my memory on that one. Lol still celebrating losing by 2 million votes? 1 out of 50 polls were wrong outside the margin of error IIRC in 2016. Yep obviously polling is complete guesswork Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.