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Rothstein's Big Ten Forecast


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11 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Talk of Archie not surviving a 10th place finish this year is silly.  His seat will begin to get warm, but he absolutely will get a 4th year.  Another quick coaching change and IU has officially crossed a line, and is just another program at that point.    

Let's put it this way.  The most direct path to success is to give Archie some time.  I would rather it take Archie 5-6 years to get us there than to start over yet again.

I would say instead of just giving Archie time, I would say what can we do to help!

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I view last season differently.

Certainly, I am not happy with the results, and sure CAM isn’t either. However, I am of the opinion that he did some of his best coaching in keeping the team intact and not letting them completely go off the rails. For the most part, the kids played hard and didn’t quit. They played some of their best ball in the NIT, without Romeo, and with the label of being “ not invited “ hanging over their heads. He didn’t publicly blame, or rip into his team, something that the previous regime had a tendency to do. He knew his team underperformed, and I sensed he was extremely pissed about it, but maintained a persona of remaining in control throughout. Never, did I get the impression that this job was too big for him.

Looking forward to the upcoming season and this team, and this staff showing that last year was an anomaly and that we are a program that is trending up, regardless of what the so-called “experts “ think 

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12 hours ago, Parakeet Jones said:

How could he win quickly without his own players?  That’s expecting too much, or so I’ve read. 

Here's how: He steps into a program that plays the pack line defense and a similar style on offense and had little to no impact from injuries or transfers out.

That's how.

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12 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

I view last season differently.

Certainly, I am not happy with the results, and sure CAM isn’t either. However, I am of the opinion that he did some of his best coaching in keeping the team intact and not letting them completely go off the rails. For the most part, the kids played hard and didn’t quit. They played some of their best ball in the NIT, without Romeo, and with the label of being “ not invited “ hanging over their heads. He didn’t publicly blame, or rip into his team, something that the previous regime had a tendency to do. He knew his team underperformed, and I sensed he was extremely pissed about it, but maintained a persona of remaining in control throughout. Never, did I get the impression that this job was too big for him.

Looking forward to the upcoming season and this team, and this staff showing that last year was an anomaly and that we are a program that is trending up, regardless of what the so-called “experts “ think 

I can agree some.  We finished the season stronger than i expected and put up some fight in the NIT.  What worries me about CAM, was his inability to flex his way of doing things during the 2 months of losing streak.  It was the same line-up, the same plan, and same depth from the bench.  At no point did he say lets try something completely different and see if that gets us out of the muck. That is what concerns me most.  Is he flexible enough to say my way isn't working, lets try something else.

Just my opinion, feel free to tell me i am wrong, i probably am

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14 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I can agree some.  We finished the season stronger than i expected and put up some fight in the NIT.  What worries me about CAM, was his inability to flex his way of doing things during the 2 months of losing streak.  It was the same line-up, the same plan, and same depth from the bench.  At no point did he say lets try something completely different and see if that gets us out of the muck. That is what concerns me most.  Is he flexible enough to say my way isn't working, lets try something else.

Just my opinion, feel free to tell me i am wrong, i probably am

I thought he changed things up a little late but I don't think he went the whole 13 game stretch without changing.  I saw changes starting with the Purdue and Iowa losses because they came out with a different mind set.

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1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I can agree some.  We finished the season stronger than i expected and put up some fight in the NIT.  What worries me about CAM, was his inability to flex his way of doing things during the 2 months of losing streak.  It was the same line-up, the same plan, and same depth from the bench.  At no point did he say lets try something completely different and see if that gets us out of the muck. That is what concerns me most.  Is he flexible enough to say my way isn't working, lets try something else.

Just my opinion, feel free to tell me i am wrong, i probably am

Have to remember during that long losing streak IU was crippled with players who were unavailable. Phinisee missed some games with a concussion and took almost a month+ to get re-acclimated to the speed of the game. Green was suspended for a crucial 3 game stretch including losses at Northwestern and Rutgers were IU got absolutely nothing out of their bench and went on stone cold scoring droughts after building up solid leads. There was an 8 game stretch that overlapped Green's suspension where Davis had 5 DNP's (including the 3 games Green was suspended NW, Mich, Rutg) and only played 11 total minutes in the 3 games he was available.

I don't believe it was an issue of flexibility, rather he played who he had. Both Green and Davis came on very strong after their respective time off and you saw the difference in the way the Hoosiers played down the stretch. 

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41 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

Have to remember during that long losing streak IU was crippled with players who were unavailable. Phinisee missed some games with a concussion and took almost a month+ to get re-acclimated to the speed of the game. Green was suspended for a crucial 3 game stretch including losses at Northwestern and Rutgers were IU got absolutely nothing out of their bench and went on stone cold scoring droughts after building up solid leads. There was an 8 game stretch that overlapped Green's suspension where Davis had 5 DNP's (including the 3 games Green was suspended NW, Mich, Rutg) and only played 11 total minutes in the 3 games he was available.

I don't believe it was an issue of flexibility, rather he played who he had. Both Green and Davis came on very strong after their respective time off and you saw the difference in the way the Hoosiers played down the stretch. 

Welcome to Hoosier Sports Nation.  First post ! Hope it is just the first of many to come. 

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One thing is for sure, I’m ready to get this season rolling so we can get past the speculation of what will happen and actually see what happens. 

I’ll say this too, if we exceed expectations (which I think is likely making most of our angst moot) those types of seasons are some of the most fun and enjoyable. 

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5 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

One thing is for sure, I’m ready to get this season rolling so we can get past the speculation of what will happen and actually see what happens. 

I’ll say this too, if we exceed expectations (which I think is likely making most of our angst moot) those types is seasons are some of the most fun and enjoyable. 

I agree because to me one of the most fulfilling season as a fan was the 88-89 season because that team started so bad and finished winning the Big Ten.

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6 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I agree because to me one of the most fulfilling season as a fan was the 88-89 season because that team started so bad and finished winning the Big Ten.

Agree 100% about 88-89. I feel similarly about 15-16 when we stunk up the joint in Maui and went on to win the B1G. 

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1 hour ago, IndyResident16 said:

Have to remember during that long losing streak IU was crippled with players who were unavailable. Phinisee missed some games with a concussion and took almost a month+ to get re-acclimated to the speed of the game. Green was suspended for a crucial 3 game stretch including losses at Northwestern and Rutgers were IU got absolutely nothing out of their bench and went on stone cold scoring droughts after building up solid leads. There was an 8 game stretch that overlapped Green's suspension where Davis had 5 DNP's (including the 3 games Green was suspended NW, Mich, Rutg) and only played 11 total minutes in the 3 games he was available.

I don't believe it was an issue of flexibility, rather he played who he had. Both Green and Davis came on very strong after their respective time off and you saw the difference in the way the Hoosiers played down the stretch. 

I agree but during the same time frame he only used like 7 guys.  Many of the bench guys never saw more than maybe a couple minutes.  I am not saying he wasn't ham stringed with some injuries but that doesn't change the fact that there were 4 guys down the bench who could have seen more playing time.  

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16 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I agree but during the same time frame he only used like 7 guys.  Many of the bench guys never saw more than maybe a couple minutes.  I am not saying he wasn't ham stringed with some injuries but that doesn't change the fact that there were 4 guys down the bench who could have seen more playing time.  

You trust Anderson, Moore, or Forrester playing extended minutes in a meaningful game? They did for a stretch of period and it wasn't pretty.

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1 minute ago, IndyResident16 said:

You trust Anderson, Moore, or Forrester playing extended minutes in a meaningful game? They did for a stretch of period and it wasn't pretty.

Just wondering if you are the same guy from Rivals with this user name. I hope you coming here to get away from that cesspool and come to a real board like this one.  There are some of us who use to post over there but left once guys like Fepaugh? and Ordfan or whatever his user name is now took over.

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16 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Just wondering if you are the same guy from Rivals with this user name. I hope you coming here to get away from that cesspool and come to a real board like this one.  There are some of us who use to post over there but left once guys like Fepaugh? and Ordfan or whatever his user name is now took over.

I am and that's the plan.

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3 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

You trust Anderson, Moore, or Forrester playing extended minutes in a meaningful game? They did for a stretch of period and it wasn't pretty.

We lost for 2 months straight.  I trust trying anything.  Sitting your starters to prove a point.  Using the bench to show that careless turnovers and stupid plays will no make the cut.  I trust trying anything different if what you're currently doing isn't working.  At least if you're going to lose your guys get experience and you get to evaluate them more in a live game scenario.  Would it have change the outcome, probably not, but you never know unless you try, which is my point.  CAM didn't try anything different.  Green coming alive at the end of the season is what change our outcome.  Had he not been as hot as he was the last 3 game or so, we would have lost them too. 

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15 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

However, I am of the opinion that he did some of his best coaching in keeping the team intact and not letting them completely go off the rails. For the most part, the kids played hard and didn’t quit.

I agree with most of your post except for the playing hard comment. The injuries were a huge punch in the gut but on the other hand I found it worrisome how many games we seemed to not care, nor play aggressive and start games very, very slowly. The lack of consistently playing hard reached its zenith at the end of the season when we did not come out to play against OSU in the virtual play-in game for the tourney. In the post game interviews players stated they did not come out with fire, etc.....In a game to get into the tourney!!

In spite of the injuries we beat MSU twice. If we consistently played like that we would have easily made the tourney.

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31 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

Every day, all day

Welcome to this board and you will find that fans here are a lot more cordial even if you have a differing opinion.  I stopped posting there in Feb. after the loss at Iowa because it just got to out of control.  I went back some to that site to read the front page for news but will not post there any longer.

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24 minutes ago, IU878176 said:

I agree with most of your post except for the playing hard comment. The injuries were a huge punch in the gut but on the other hand I found it worrisome how many games we seemed to not care, nor play aggressive and start games very, very slowly. The lack of consistently playing hard reached its zenith at the end of the season when we did not come out to play against OSU in the virtual play-in game for the tourney. In the post game interviews players stated they did not come out with fire, etc.....In a game to get into the tourney!!

In spite of the injuries we beat MSU twice. If we consistently played like that we would have easily made the tourney.

The starting slow lost us more games than the lack of shooting or injuries.  We spotted almost every team 12-15 points almost every half.  If we don't do that, we win 75% of those games

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5 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

The starting slow lost us more games than the lack of shooting or injuries.  We spotted almost every team 12-15 points almost every half.  If we don't do that, we win 75% of those games

But lack of shooting and injuries are a huge reason for those slow starts, not the only reasons, but definitely a big part of it. If Justin Smith was throwing up bricks early, Archie didn't have the luxury of turning to a Jerome Hunter. During most of Jan through mid-Feb if we were getting killed inside early, Archie didn't have the luxury of throwing a healthy De'Ron out there. If we were getting 'bad Devonte', Archie didn't have a healthy Phinisee to throw out there. Once Phinisee was back to full-go, if he was having freshmen struggles there were 3 games where Archie couldn't turn to Green. While Langford certainly put up decent numbers, we didn't have a full-throttle Langford to just turn the game over to if the offense was bogged down early. 

Those things weren't happening in isolation either, all of those things were happening at the same time, and coincidentally other than the season long ones (Langford, Hunter, Race), they all lineup with the losing streak. 

The options were so limited, and not normal overcome some nagging injuries limited, but derail the season limited. 

We can certainly talk about why Smith did develop really at all last season, why Juwan never developed a consistent outside shot, or why Fitzner was so bad, and yes those things would have bought us a couple more games and made IU potentially a tournament team, but my bottomline is if you cut the injuries even in half then IU is probably a top 4-5 Big Ten team and solidly in the tournament with a chance to advance maybe to the Sweet Sixteen. 

I'm really not trying to be an Archie apologist, I'm not. I just think the injuries last season were crazy. IMO they really were more than a team in IU's situation (young team, second year coach, still learning system, etc.) can overcome. I think Archie can be the real deal, but the other reality is that those injuries did happen and they did derail the season and now unfortunately Archie is going to have to overcome that, and it's not going to be easy. Some program momentum was lost with what happened last season, so it's going to be a challenge to get it back. 

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1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

The starting slow lost us more games than the lack of shooting or injuries.  We spotted almost every team 12-15 points almost every half.  If we don't do that, we win 75% of those games

We were up double digits on the road to start the game against Maryland, Northwestern, and Rutgers. Two of those games, NW and Rutgers, were without Davis and Green. IU lead NW 20-13 with 9 minutes to go in the half and scored 4 pts the remainder of the half and IU lead Rutgers 29-19 with 4 minutes left in the 1st half and didn’t score a point until there was 14 minutes left in the game. Guys like Anderson saw extended minutes in those contests.

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14 minutes ago, IndyResident16 said:

We were up double digits on the road to start the game against Maryland, Northwestern, and Rutgers. Two of those games, NW and Rutgers, were without Davis and Green. IU lead NW 20-13 with 9 minutes to go in the half and didn’t score another point and scored 4 pts the remainder of the half and IU lead Rutgers 29-19 with 4 minutes left in the 1st half and didn’t score a point until there was 14 minutes left in the game. Guys like Anderson saw extended minutes in those contests.

Good point. Fans and media criticized a lot for the slow start, so the team responded but it turned out that the team was not built for 40 minutes. First 10-minute spotlight followed by the next 25-minute misery, and we tried to close the gap in the last 5 minutes but didn't work. I thought we didn't have enough depth. I thought we did at the beginning of the season but due to multitude of reasons (injuries, lack of development, Fizner experiment didn't pan out, etc.), our bench was shorter than everybody thought. 

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