Northwestern Pregame

[Hoosierhoopster]

6 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I agree water will find it's level with Franklin, we just all hope that level is high 30s/low 40s. I also think water will find it's level with Al, which is that same range, so it may be a net neutral? I'm hoping and trying to talk myself into that, because Franklin isn't going 5/7 every game. Seeing him do it back to back games is VERY encouraging, though. 

100% agreed on all points.

[IUFLA]

11 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

^^ Could be, to me, it's hard to tell right now.

Brunk adds a lot to our front court play and depth, losing him is a real loss. I was pretty confident he would come off the bench with Race starting, but that's just a who starts discussion, there is no doubt he is important and a significant contributor, while Race has made a real jump. On Race, he has not been as aggressive offensively recently but I think that will change, the kid can ball.

On the other hand, most (myself included) did not see AF contributing as much as he has offensively, particularly from deep, this season. I do not mean to discount that at all, but I don't think he will maintain that kind of production from deep, I think he is shooting at the top end of his averages and they will come down. I don't think it's a good idea to assume he will continue to be a major 3-point shooter, the sample size is very small. If I am wrong, fantastic. But I think we'll need a lot more scoring from outside than we've had so far to compete well in the B1G, and that means getting Rob to hit, getting Al to hit, and getting Hunter minutes and shooting. 

Yeah, I don't expect 46% but I think 40% is attainable for 4 reasons...

He has nice consistent form, his confidence level is high, his shot selection is good, and he's in great physical shape...

 

[KoB2011]

1 minute ago, IUFLA said:

Yeah, I don't expect 46% but I think 40% is attainable for 4 reasons...

He has nice consistent form, his confidence level is high, his shot selection is good, and he's in great physical shape...

 

Supposedly he made 39% of his threes his senior year in high school. Obviously college you have better defense and a deeper line, but it isn't crazy to think that after a year of adjusting he could return to that type of mark. 

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Yeah, I don't expect 46% but I think 40% is attainable for 4 reasons...

He has nice consistent form, his confidence level is high, his shot selection is good, and he's in great physical shape...

 

On phone and can’t tell. If we’re talking AF a 40 percent average would be a huge jump from his college numbers, and immediately make him the best or one of the best deep shooters on the team. Might he get there? Sure it’s possible but I’d be surprised. 40 percent shooting is elite. CAM and the other players say Al, Rob and Hunter are the best deep shooters on the team. No one says AF is, again we’re just a few games in and his early games be shot poorly. I think we’ll see his numbers drop but again if I’m wrong then fantastic 

[GaloisGroupe]

I expect defenses to adapt if AF keeps shooting the three at a high level - should open things up for TJD.

[TheWatShot]

9 hours ago, Bob said:

They play up tempo, and shoot the ball very well. Like to drive then kick it out for threes. Score very quick. 

"I hope we can score enough to keep up with Northwestern!"

 

-Things I never thought I'd say in the Archie Miller era, Volume 4

[Seeking6]

4 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Supposedly he made 39% of his threes his senior year in high school. Obviously college you have better defense and a deeper line, but it isn't crazy to think that after a year of adjusting he could return to that type of mark. 

I watched him in high school many times. Those shots he was draining vs Butler are the same one's I saw him drop 30+ multiple times on the kid from Zionsville/Purdue. I've always thought Franklin was drastically underrated rankings wise. I think we might just be scratching the surface on Armaan but again....a ton of bias from my side. 

[GaloisGroupe]

3 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I watched him in high school many times. Those shots he was draining vs Butler are the same one's I saw him drop 30+ multiple times on the kid from Zionsville/Purdue. I've always thought Franklin was drastically underrated rankings wise. I think we might just be scratching the surface on Armaan but again....a ton of bias from my side. 

I did not see him in high-school, but I have the same "scratching the surface feeling" - I feel he looks a little better every time I see him play.

[KoB2011]

2 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I watched him in high school many times. Those shots he was draining vs Butler are the same one's I saw him drop 30+ multiple times on the kid from Zionsville/Purdue. I've always thought Franklin was drastically underrated rankings wise. I think we might just be scratching the surface on Armaan but again....a ton of bias from my side. 

Oh there were definitely a handful of posters that saw him a lot in high school that thought he was drastically underrated. 

[Seeking6]

10 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Oh there were definitely a handful of posters that saw him a lot in high school that thought he was drastically underrated. 

And I don't like to play he reminds me of this guy....but I guess I'm getting ready to do it. Stronger more athletic version of Greg Graham is the best one I can think of. 

[go_iu_bb]

6 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

And I don't like to play he reminds me of this guy....but I guess I'm getting ready to do it. Stronger more athletic version of Greg Graham is the best one I can think of. 

G. Graham is my favorite player from my favorite IU teams. If Franklin can get to that level I'd be very happy.

[H00sier]

34 minutes ago, go_iu_bb said:

G. Graham is my favorite player from my favorite IU teams. If Franklin can get to that level I'd be very happy.

Oh I agree, while not favorite from those squads, Greg G was a heck of ballplayer. 

Just thinking about those early 90’s squads brings back a ton of fond memories. 

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, Seeking6 said:

And I don't like to play he reminds me of this guy....but I guess I'm getting ready to do it. Stronger more athletic version of Greg Graham is the best one I can think of. 

He's built a bit like Quinn Buckner...and his defense is getting close...better jump shot, but not near the leadership... yet...

[IowaHoosierFan]

46 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

He's built a bit like Quinn Buckner...and his defense is getting close...better jump shot, but not near the leadership... yet...

i am not sure i would use those 2 names in the same sentence.

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

i am not sure i would use those 2 names in the same sentence.

Then don't...

I have no issue comparing certain physical traits and games of 2 IU players past and present...

And I saw Buckner play plenty...did you?

[Hoosierfan1901]

Archie’s comments 

https://twitter.com/jon_blau/status/1341174683627122689?s=21

[DWB]

4 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

I watched him in high school many times. Those shots he was draining vs Butler are the same one's I saw him drop 30+ multiple times on the kid from Zionsville/Purdue. I've always thought Franklin was drastically underrated rankings wise. I think we might just be scratching the surface on Armaan but again....a ton of bias from my side. 

According to Archie on last week's radio show, he mentioned a couple of times that the Armaan we're watching now, is the "normal" Armaan in practice. His confidence is way up, he's comfortable, and coachable. We shouldn't look for 20/8/5 every night, but Arch thinks he'll be much more consistent than last year.

Also mentioned tonite that Leal is on the cusp of getting some game minutes. Guess we'll see.

[Hoosierfan1215]

12 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

And I think every fanbase in Champaign, Iowa City, East Lansing, and on and on.....is saying the same thing. No one is going 16-4 in the conference slate. 15-5 should get you title and the difference between 15-5 and 11-9 this year is the single game plays. That's how tight things will be. 

Agree 100 percent. We have 12 conference games against ranked teams. Purdue has 7. That’s a big difference. Just an example. I don’t need justification from boiler on any of it. Just making a statement.But it will matter in final standings.

[Hippopotamo]

26 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1215 said:

Agree 100 percent. We have 12 conference games against ranked teams. Purdue has 7. That’s a big difference. Just an example. I don’t need justification from boiler on any of it. Just making a statement.But it will matter in final standings.

That’s why I get annoyed when people talk about conference record and rankings as a way to say the program isn’t improving. Yeah obviously finishing top 4 or winning the big ten is the goal but what matters more is getting a good seed in the Tournament. If a team finished 12-8 while playing Northwestern, Maryland and Nebraska twice while IU goes 10-10 with a much harder schedule it makes it tough to compare and say IU was really worse than the 12-8 team. 

[Hoosierhoopster]

10 minutes ago, Hippopotamo said:

That’s why I get annoyed when people talk about conference record and rankings as a way to say the program isn’t improving. Yeah obviously finishing top 4 or winning the big ten is the goal but what matters more is getting a good seed in the Tournament. If a team finished 12-8 while playing Northwestern, Maryland and Nebraska twice while IU goes 10-10 with a much harder schedule it makes it tough to compare and say IU was really worse than the 12-8 team. 

Well said 

[go_iu_bb]

59 minutes ago, Hippopotamo said:

That’s why I get annoyed when people talk about conference record and rankings as a way to say the program isn’t improving. Yeah obviously finishing top 4 or winning the big ten is the goal but what matters more is getting a good seed in the Tournament. If a team finished 12-8 while playing Northwestern, Maryland and Nebraska twice while IU goes 10-10 with a much harder schedule it makes it tough to compare and say IU was really worse than the 12-8 team. 

The problem is that 2/3 of the regular season games are played against conference opponents. If you don't do well against them your chances of making the NCAAT diminishes and can hurt your seed if you do make it.

There are also several teams that compete at a high level within the conference regardless of the unbalanced schedules.

Sure, the unbalanced schedule means that you can't necessarily look at one team's (or season's) record and compare it directly to another to say one team was definitely better than the other unless one record is significantly better than the other.

When you consistently finish in the middle of the pack or worse, that means you're not improving versus the majority of your competition.

What does concern me is that we've started season 4 under Miller and while he's recruited very well compared to the rest of the conference, the expectation entering the season was still only 7th place. This means that Miller is doing a poor job of evaluating players and now they'll fit within his system regardless of terror ranking, don't a poor job of developing those players, or doing a poor job of coaching them so they learn the system and become a team greater than the sum of its parts.

It's B1G recruiting class rankings (247) under Miller:

2017: 3

2018: 2

2019: 6 (low mostly because it was only 2 players)

2020: 2

[Hippopotamo]

Idk man, if you think improving 4 straight years is bad then I’m not sure what you’re looking for here. I think the improvement has been slightly slower than expected, but I think he’s recruiting exactly the right players, developing them well, and has proven to be an effective coach. Armaan Franklin was a 3 star recruit and he looks like our second best player as a sophomore. That has to be some combination of scouting, recruiting, and development for that to happen. As for coaching, I think the halftime adjustments against Butler are a testament to his abilities. The system is also developing the way you would want. We now have a bonafide top 20 defense that is not going anywhere now, and the offense as ugly as it may look sometimes has improved every single year. I think it is also an encouraging sign that the freshmen and sophomores have looked at least as good as our upperclassmen. To me that shows our future is bright and the recruiting has improved over time. 

[FKIM01]

31 minutes ago, go_iu_bb said:

It's B1G recruiting class rankings (247) under Miller:

2017: 3

2018: 2

2019: 6 (low mostly because it was only 2 players)

2020: 2

You are ignoring (1) the first class was recruited by the former coach for a completely different system and (2) that these are the first four classes at IU for this coach.  I feel like I'm wasting my breath telling you that it's not at all uncommon for even good coaches to need a few seasons to fully implement their systems.  If this were years 5-8, you'd have an argument.

You're also conveniently ignoring the consistent measurable improvement year over year over year over year.  I feel like a broken record, but it's frustrating to see the improvement ignored when people have an agenda.

[snowling]

https://www.thehoosiernetwork.com/2020/12/21/indiana-basketball-podcast-let-the-big-ten-begin/

Go Hoosiers!

[go_iu_bb]

9 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

You are ignoring (1) the first class was recruited by the former coach for a completely different system and (2) that these are the first four classes at IU for this coach.  I feel like I'm wasting my breath telling you that it's not at all uncommon for even good coaches to need a few seasons to fully implement their systems.  If this were years 5-8, you'd have an argument.

You're also conveniently ignoring the consistent measurable improvement year over year over year over year.  I feel like a broken record, but it's frustrating to see the improvement ignored when people have an agenda.

The first class included one of his own recruits in Race Thompson, another player (Durham) who has started 75% of his games while at IU, and Justin Smith who started over 74% of his games at IU. Sure, Durham and Smith where "recruited by the former coach for a completely different system" but they were never coached or taught that other system. 

However, by even bringing that up it's clear you're missing my point completely. IU has been recruiting as well or better than anyone in the B1G yet are still middle of the pack at best when it comes to actually winning games. And that is with a stud pre-season All-America player who is being talked about as a NPOY candidate. Is your only explanation for this that it takes 5-8 years to implement a system? In that case, it's the wrong system since players are in college for 4 years or less. But it doesn't take that long to implement one. Many of the coaches that have been used as examples have typically shown a marked improvement by years 3 or 4. For Miller, year 3 saw a tie for 10th in the B1G and squeaking in to the NCAAT.

Sure, the team has made incremental improvements in stats but that hasn't translated into wins, particularly in conference. At some point it needs to. And, again, 2/3 of the season is played in conference which is why doing well against conference opponents is very important. 

My "agenda" is wanting to see IU win games. I'm tired of hearing how tough the B1G is and how we should be satisfied with a 6th or 7th place finish, or that conference standing doesn't matter. From the recruiting classes it looks like they should be better than that and how you perform against 2/3 of your schedule does matter.

I would also point out that NCAA selection is done by a committee which is comprised of people. They make mistakes and have biases. When you're finishing 8 or 9 or 10th (or worse, tied for 10th but get 11th seed in your conference's tournament) you're leaving open the possibility of being left out because they don't want that many teams from the same conference in the tournament. Sometimes SOS matters to the committee and in those years playing in the B1G but having a not great record might be okay. In other years they don't really care about SOS and look more at win totals so in those years not having a great record in conference could really hurt. Last example of this was 2019.