Miller looking for more production -- and that starts with Rob and Al

[The Daily Hoosier]

On the degree of their slumps, why they are slumping, and how they work through it.

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/iu-basketball-archie-miller-looking-for-more-production-and-it-starts-with-his-two-veteran-guards/

[DWB]

Personally I'd rather see Rob start and Al come off the bench if Archie is so dead set on playing them. Rob isn't 0 for the season on FT's like Al, and plays better defense, even in his "slump", compared to Al.

PS. Hey Archie...news flash....Al is a Senior. You don't have time to wait him out, when every game can decide if you make the dance or not.  We're already in one helluva deep hole now. But that's OK, let's wait for Al to come around...SMH

[KoB2011]

4 minutes ago, DWB said:

Personally I'd rather see Rob start and Al come off the bench if Archie is so dead set on playing them. Rob isn't 0 for the season on FT's like Al, and plays better defense, even in his "slump", compared to Al.

PS. Hey Archie...news flash....Al is a Senior. You don't have time to wait him out, when every game can decide if you make the dance or not.  We're already in one helluva deep hole now. But that's OK, let's wait for Al to come around...SMH

Why do you think we are in a hole?

[DWB]

2 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Why do you think we are in a hole?

O-2 in the Big, with one of (if not the toughest) schedule. We haven't shown the toughness needed (IMO, and Archie said so on his Radio show) to go up against the real physical teams, which is just about everybody in the B1G. We got out-toughed with FSU, TX, NW of all schools, and IL. And we have 12-15 more tough, physical games ahead of us.

Hope I'm wrong.

 

 

[NCHoosier32]

see, i sort of disagree with more production out of those guys.  i just want them to play good bball.  to me they dribble too much, make bad decisions, and just generally make us look ugly.  i definitely don't want to see Al force more to be more productive.  wouldn't mind RP shooting more, but i'm gonna keep saying Al was #230 coming into college.  i'd actually say he's overachieving by even being a starter.  RP was around 150.  i'm not sure starting as a junior and doing what he is doing isn't about his ceiling.  the tough thing is that they hurt us offensively and at the minimum we could expect them to make good decisions and not hurt us.  add to that that our 5 star recruit isn't ready and our next highest rated recruit other than TJD isn't performing where we was projected.  

[Euroclydon]

Al is what he is and there are no secrets to his game. He will flash moments of brilliance but never give you a complete game or be a reliable shooter/scorer. The only consistent features of Al's game through this point in his career is how the ball bounces off his hands, how easy he loses the handle on his dribble, and how often he ends up on the floor. Al is on target to go down as one of the most likable players in team history but his limited game will fade from memory quickly barring a big game winning moment.

Rob is the guy that has the most potential to make this team better. I said in the last post game thread, Archie needs to have a discussion with Rob about his career and whether continuing with IU is right for him. Either Rob is committed to going hard all the time and being a presence on the court, or he sits the pine and then moves on after the season. Frankly, his minutes are more useful to the young guys than watching Rob wallow through another game. Yes, he does a decent job on D more often than not but he is invisible on offense. He is content to be an after-thought. He passes up shots. He rarely attacks the basket. He does not get to the FT line. He looked glad to just sit on the bench last time out. It really feels like he would be just as happy not playing as long as he is in the team photo. No fire. No competitive drive. No pride in his game. It is sad because I defended him through the past two years of injuries. He really has no excuse for his level of play this season.

In all fairness, it is not all about Rob and Al. The lack of size keeps getting exposed. That's on the coaches. Virtually every power 5 team has multiple guys 6'9 or bigger that can play. The better teams have 3 - 5 guys in that range who can play or are waiting in the wings developing. Why is it IU cannot figure this out? Even if they landed  Kaufman they would need at least 2 more bigs to go with him assuming TJD leaves and Brunk graduates and decides to move on. There isn't a project that can be found anywhere willing to come in and redshirt for a season to be depth down the road? Somehow Nortwestern can find a 6'9, two 6'10s and a 7'0 but IU cannot? What are you doing coaching staff? Why can't you see it?

 

 

[IUFLA]

28 minutes ago, Euroclydon said:

Al is what he is and there are no secrets to his game. He will flash moments of brilliance but never give you a complete game or be a reliable shooter/scorer. The only consistent features of Al's game through this point in his career is how the ball bounces off his hands, how easy he loses the handle on his dribble, and how often he ends up on the floor. Al is on target to go down as one of the most likable players in team history but his limited game will fade from memory quickly barring a big game winning moment.

Rob is the guy that has the most potential to make this team better. I said in the last post game thread, Archie needs to have a discussion with Rob about his career and whether continuing with IU is right for him. Either Rob is committed to going hard all the time and being a presence on the court, or he sits the pine and then moves on after the season. Frankly, his minutes are more useful to the young guys than watching Rob wallow through another game. Yes, he does a decent job on D more often than not but he is invisible on offense. He is content to be an after-thought. He passes up shots. He rarely attacks the basket. He does not get to the FT line. He looked glad to just sit on the bench last time out. It really feels like he would be just as happy not playing as long as he is in the team photo. No fire. No competitive drive. No pride in his game. It is sad because I defended him through the past two years of injuries. He really has no excuse for his level of play this season.

In all fairness, it is not all about Rob and Al. The lack of size keeps getting exposed. That's on the coaches. Virtually every power 5 team has multiple guys 6'9 or bigger that can play. The better teams have 3 - 5 guys in that range who an play or are waiting in the wings developing. Why is it IU cannot figure this out? Even if they landed  Kaufman they would need at least 2 more bigs to go with him assuming TJD leaves and Brunk graduates and decides to move on. There isn't a project that can be found anywhere willing to come in and redshirt for a season to be depth down the road? Somehow Nortwestern can find a 6'9, two 6'10s and a 7'0 but IU cannot? What are you doing coaching staff? Why can't you see it?

 

 

Agree with what you said 100% until the bolded part...

We DID have 3 lined up for this year...Even through Hoosier Hysteria...For next year, we'll have Race, Duncomb, and probably either TJD or Brunk...and there's a possibility, however slim, that both stay...that'd be 4...

I never did like the "projects." Not April, not Jurkin, and not Priller...I liked seeing Priller get into a game, because it meant we were winning by 30...but he took up a scholarship for 4 years...Good for the kid, but not for the program...

As for Northwestern, of there 3 bigs, none were top 50 kids...Nance was a 6'8 forward that was ranked a 3 star and behind Jerome Hunter in Ohio rankings...he grew 2 inches and now is a good player on a good team...

Sometimes the margin is thin in recruiting, and with Brunk's injury we're hurting a little up front...But to panic and start recruiting projects? Seen that movie before...

[Hoosierhoopster]

Some pretty harsh things said here about Al and Rob. JMO, too harsh.

Al came into the season a 38% outside shooter, who has improved his shooting and game every year. It's not fair to him to label him an inconsistent shooter, he's not. He hasn't shot well this season and everything really went south after his ankle injury, maybe he's just not 100% and can't get lift on his shots, or maybe he's just in a slump, the team needs him to come out of it, but labeling him inconsistent or unreliable isn't right, imo.

Rob is a strong defender, not just an OK defender, but he is clearly not being aggressive with his shot and isn't finding his rhythm and consistency. CAM came into the year calling him one of the team's top 3 shooters. We haven't seen that, but it must be there. He's clearly not being aggressive enough offensively, he lost his spot in the starting lineup because of that, CAM is sending him the message, he needs to respond -- he can help the team offensively a lot more than he is doing, imo.

But I also think @NCHoosier32 makes a point about just having them play good ball (I don't agree with the whole post but jmo, that's a good point). Going to keep flogging the dead horse, there are other guys who I think should be emphasized more for the offense we're clearly lacking, instead of trying to get more blood out of the proverbial turnip. Run sets for Galloway baseline or downhill, get Lander and Hunter more minutes. Yes, we're risking some D, but you can't win without scoring, we need more offense.

[go_iu_bb]

37 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Some pretty harsh things said here about Al and Rob. JMO, too harsh.

Al came into the season a 38% outside shooter, who has improved his shooting and game every year. It's not fair to him to label him an inconsistent shooter, he's not. He hasn't shot well this season and everything really went south after his ankle injury, maybe he's just not 100% and can't get lift on his shots, or maybe he's just in a slump, the team needs him to come out of it, but labeling him inconsistent or unreliable isn't right, imo.

Rob is a strong defender, not just an OK defender, but he is clearly not being aggressive with his shot and isn't finding his rhythm and consistency. CAM came into the year calling him one of the team's top 3 shooters. We haven't seen that, but it must be there. He's clearly not being aggressive enough offensively, he lost his spot in the starting lineup because of that, CAM is sending him the message, he needs to respond -- he can help the team offensively a lot more than he is doing, imo.

But I also think @NCHoosier32 makes a point about just having them play good ball (I don't agree with the whole post but jmo, that's a good point). Going to keep flogging the dead horse, there are other guys who I think should be emphasized more for the offense we're clearly lacking, instead of trying to get more blood out of the proverbial turnip. Run sets for Galloway baseline or downhill, get Lander and Hunter more minutes. Yes, we're risking some D, but you can't win without scoring, we need more offense.

Regarding Durham, I think it's a slump and not injury. I say that because his FT shooting has also gone south so far this season and has been poor since before the injury. I think it's all mental for him and the basket looks very small to him at the moment. I hope he can break out, and soon. As a senior and one who has put in a lot of work the last few years to improve his game, I imagine he's frustrated and disappointed in how this season has gone so far.

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

It's not fair to him to label him an inconsistent shooter, he's not.

It's very fair to label him an inconsistent shooter...Last year, after the games against lesser competition, he went into a 3 month slump...Don't believe me? Here's the numbers...

Barely 30% over a 3 month span...He started strong (53% in our first 4 games) and did finish strong (38% in our last 4 games), but isn't that the very definition of inconsistent?

in·con·sist·ent

not staying the same throughout...

And I don't think there's anything too harsh with the facts...We know Al...We've seen Al...and he's just not a starting guard on a B1G champion caliber team...Love the kid and his commitment to IU, but he's just not...

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

It's very fair to label him an inconsistent shooter...Last year, after the games against lesser competition, he went into a 3 month slump...Don't believe me? Here's the numbers...

Barely 30% over a 3 month span...He started strong (53% in our first 4 games) and did finish strong (38% in our last 4 games), but isn't that the very definition of inconsistent?

in·con·sist·ent

not staying the same throughout...

And I don't think there's anything too harsh with the facts...We know Al...We've seen Al...and he's just not a starting guard on a B1G champion caliber team...Love the kid and his commitment to IU, but he's just not...

Oh for crying out loud. 38% over last year. Every year his percentages have gone up -- over the course of three years. Thanks for the definition and spelling on inconsistent. Come on already.

https://iuhoosiers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20

 

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, go_iu_bb said:

Regarding Durham, I think it's a slump and not injury. I say that because his FT shooting has also gone south so far this season and has been poor since before the injury. I think it's all mental for him and the basket looks very small to him at the moment. I hope he can break out, and soon. As a senior and one who has put in a lot of work the last few years to improve his game, I imagine he's frustrated and disappointed in how this season has gone so far.

Very well could be. Shooters go through slumps. 

[IUFLA]

10 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Oh for crying out loud. 38% over last year. Every year his percentages have gone up -- over the course of three years. Thanks for the definition and spelling on inconsistent. Come on already.

https://iuhoosiers.com/sports/mens-basketball/stats/2019-20

 

Not quite sure what you're trying to show me with the link...I understand he shot 38% for the year (I had obviously looked at the overall stats before I carved out what I did)...And I showed you that for a full 3 month stretch he was well under that...

He does well against lesser competition, and he had some late that picked up his conference average, but you're saying he's a consistent 38% shooter...I showed you a wide swath of last season where he most decidedly wasn't...

Cutting through all of the stats though, do you think Al Durham could be a starting guard on a B1G title contending team?

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

Not quite sure what you're trying to show me with the link...I understand he shot 38% for the year (I had obviously looked at the overall stats before I carved out what I did)...And I showed you that for a full 3 month stretch he was well under that...

He does well against lesser competition, and he had some late that picked up his conference average, but you're saying he's a consistent 38% shooter...I showed you a wide swath of last season where he most decidedly wasn't...

Cutting through all of the stats though, do you think Al Durham could be a starting guard on a B1G title contending team?

When assessing a player’s shooting, you don’t get to carve out a short period of time to fit your narrative, that is what you’re doing. You don’t get to selectively pull a limited sample size and say see, he’s inconsistent. I can do that with just about any player. Every single shooter out there goes through slumps - and when any player shoots 3 to 5 shots a game there will be 0’fer games and 1-5 games, etc, for ANYONE. You assess a player’s shooting AVERAGE by looking at the full period, and he shot 38 percent on the year, including his generally good shooting down the stretch in B1G play and his off-shooting games etc. This is basic stuff.

If you are inclined, you could just look at B1G games through the B1G tourney. I don’t know what that average is but that also would be a fair approach, though the idea that a guy’s shooting in non-conference play against the good teams shouldn’t be considered or is somehow lesser play is silly. 
 

Not sure why you feel the need to try to cast Al as inconsistent. On a full year’s shooting he shot a very respectable 38 percent and as CAM notes he’s one of the 3 best shooters on the team. I guess it fits your narrative to ignore CAM’s assessment?  Seriously, don’t see any good reason to play with games to try to lessen his overall shooting, other than to suit your narrative.

[IUFLA]

19 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

When assessing a player’s shooting, you don’t get to carve out a short period of time to fit your narrative, that is what you’re doing.

24 games over 3 months is "a short period of time"?

It's 3/4 of the season...

[HoosierDom]

4 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

24 games over 3 months is "a short period of time"?

It's 3/4 of the season...

Flip a coin 50 times and you will have heads go into a slump. I think you're reading too much into it.

[IUFLA]

19 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

Flip a coin 50 times and you will have heads go into a slump. I think you're reading too much into it.

Reading too much into what?

@Hoosierhoopster asserts that Al is a "consistent" shooter, citing the 38% figure for the season.

I showed, statistically, that for 24 consecutive games in the middle of the season he shot 30%. He started hot, stocking up against lesser competition at the beginning...cooled off for a long period, then the last 4 games shot it at a 43% clip...

That's neither a small sample size nor cherry picked. It's a statistical fact.

[IUFLA]

58 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Not sure why you feel the need to try to cast Al as inconsistent.

A surprising statement from someone who, like me, thinks we need more offense... I'd think that answer would be readily apparent...

[NotIThatLives]

I hope Al hits 6 from 7 and Rob goes 3 of 3 tonight

[HoosierDom]

24 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Reading too much into what?

@Hoosierhoopster asserts that Al is a "consistent" shooter, citing the 38% figure for the season.

I showed, statistically, that for 24 consecutive games in the middle of the season he shot 30%. He started hot, stocking up against lesser competition at the beginning...cooled off for a long period, then the last 4 games shot it at a 43% clip...

That's neither a small sample size nor cherry picked. It's a statistical fact.

That's the definition of cherry picked. You picked an arbitrary amount of time and attributed special significance to it. Not only that, but he was less than 8% below his average - barely a blip. 

Play my game, flip a coin 50 times. I guarantee you there will be a 20 flip stretch where heads comes up more than 8% less than it's actual average. Is heads inconsistent?

He's not a great player (he's not bad either) but a 30% stretch of shooting doesn't tell us much of anything.

[Hoosierhoopster]

15 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

That's the definition of cherry picked. You picked an arbitrary amount of time and attributed special significance to it. Not only that, but he was less than 8% below his average - barely a blip. 

Play my game, flip a coin 50 times. I guarantee you there will be a 20 flip stretch where heads comes up more than 8% less than it's actual average. Is heads inconsistent?

He's not a great player (he's not bad either) but a 30% stretch of shooting doesn't tell us much of anything.

Exactly 

[NCHoosier32]

53 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I hope Al hits 6 from 7 and Rob goes 3 of 3 tonight

me too!  what's your point though?  don't we all hope that?  we just don't think it will happen.

[IUFLA]

41 minutes ago, HoosierDom said:

That's the definition of cherry picked. You picked an arbitrary amount of time and attributed special significance to it. Not only that, but he was less than 8% below his average - barely a blip. 

Play my game, flip a coin 50 times. I guarantee you there will be a 20 flip stretch where heads comes up more than 8% less than it's actual average. Is heads inconsistent?

He's not a great player (he's not bad either) but a 30% stretch of shooting doesn't tell us much of anything.

How can you compare a game of chance to an acquired skill? The only thing that's even close to being true is that there are 2 outcomes to both. In flipping a coin, chance dictates that 50%of the time it will be heads, and 50 % of the time it will be tails. In shooting a basketball, such is not the case. The percentage you make is dictated by your skill, not luck.

If I had gone through and only selected the games where Al shot poorly, THAT would be cherry picking. I picked 24 consecutive games in the middle of the season, after we (and Al) had feasted on cupcakes...his shooting did improve the final 4 games as I demonstrated...

So, to satisfy you and @Hoosierhoopster let's say this...

For the first 4 games of last season, Al consistently shot 53%

In the middle 24 games Al consistently shot 30%

In the final 4 games of the year, Al consistently shot 38%...

I'd call that consistently inconsistent...

[BGleas]

Bottom line, Durham and Phinisee both need to be much, much better for this team to get to where they need to be. 

Its disappointing not to be able to count on an experienced, veteran backcourt. 

[HoosierDom]

2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

How can you compare a game of chance to an acquired skill? The only thing that's even close to being true is that there are 2 outcomes to both. In flipping a coin, chance dictates that 50%of the time it will be heads, and 50 % of the time it will be tails. In shooting a basketball, such is not the case. The percentage you make is dictated by your skill, not luck.

If I had gone through and only selected the games where Al shot poorly, THAT would be cherry picking. I picked 24 consecutive games in the middle of the season, after we (and Al) had feasted on cupcakes...his shooting did improve the final 4 games as I demonstrated...

So, to satisfy you and @Hoosierhoopster let's say this...

For the first 4 games of last season, Al consistently shot 53%

In the middle 24 games Al consistently shot 30%

In the final 4 games of the year, Al consistently shot 38%...

I'd call that consistently inconsistent...

I should let this go, but I'm trying to avoid seeing the score so I can watch the full replay later and this thread was still up on my phone. 

The point of my coin example is to show that something that is pure probability, that is completely consistent, will still have "hot" and "cold" streaks, and that in no way implies that heads is ever doing things in a way that is better or worse. Just as AD has streaks where he makes more or less 3s and that also does not imply that AD is doing anything differently. I'm also trying to point out that a 7% drop is very minor and not at all out of the ordinary. 

You cherry picked. Start your calculation after the 2nd game instead of the 4th and you will get a different result. Start it after the 10th instead and again a different result. There is no player in the history of basketball that won't have a stretch where his numbers are higher or lower than his overall average. Just as there is no coin that won't exhibit that same pattern and that pattern does not tell us anything meaningful about past, or future performance.