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Next 5 games


madmax

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The next 5 games is perhaps the easiest stretch we will have in B10 play. This team has obviously been something of an EKG graph, however this is a good chance to add some W’s to the record.

Penn State

Northwestern

@ MSU 

Maryland

@Illinois

 

What does everyone predict? And what would you be happy with?

Personally I think we get two wins this week, followed by a loss at MSU. Maryland and Illinois are toss ups in my mind.

I’d be happy with 3-2, although no one barring MSU really scares me and so I don’t think 4-1 is completely unrealistic. I hope we come out with fire at home this week. Having the students back should help.

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Honestly it just depends on which team shows up. It seems like this team can be a Dr. Jeckyl or Mr. Hyde. You can get the sloppy disengaged team that looks like they would rather be anywhere than on the court playing basketball or you get the team that actually hustles and can play fundamental basketball that almost beat Duke even with all of our roster flaws. If we play the first brand of basketball going forward I could see no wins or maybe 1 win at Illinois because they can be a dumpster fire at times. The other teams hustle too much and we play down to other teams levels too much when we play the 1st brand of basketball.  If we play the second brand of basketball going forward consistently I can see us with at least a 3 and 2 or more likely a 4 and 1 record. We would execute CAM's plan and have our defense fuel our offense. We also would be able to be engaged and out hustle the other team. I just don't see us being able to win at MSU even if we played like we played against Duke. So it is a toss up to figure out which team will show up. 

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I think we go 3-2. Pretty chalk. Win the home games. Of course I know it won't work out the way we expect until I see more of Saturday down the stretch over a period of time. If we handle our business at home maybe we steal the one at Illinois. However they've been snake bit by a combination of early season close losses, maybe not starting the right players/coaching decsions, and the scheduling folks haven't  helped them either. Only issue on Illinois game is it's a weird stretch of schedule for TV purposes. At Sparty on Friday night home with Maryland on Monday night at Illinois on Wednesday.

3 games 5 days 2 away games. We could be dead tired by the time we get to Champaign. 

Edit: just looked at Illinois schedule. They have same thing as us 3 games 5 days. Maybe they spend all of their energy for Sparty 2 days before we play them.

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28 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I'm curious what kenpom is predicting?  Anyone with access care to share?  

My hope is 4-1 sitting here thinking about how we should actually be 3-1 in conference at the moment had we not pooped the pants in the 2nd half vs wisc.  

Expectation 2-3.  

The four non-MSU games are virtual toss ups. He only likes us to beat Northwestern. 1-4. 

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Ya, Kenpom has us going 1-4, with the following:

PSU - 73-71 Loss, 42% chance to win

NW - 70-69 Win, 56% chance

Mich St - 79-61 Loss, 5% chance

Maryland - 72-69 Loss, 39% chance

Illinois - 75-71 Loss, 36% chance

I would be pleased with a 3-2, ecstatic with 4-1 and ho-hum about 2-3.  There's no reason we should only win 1.

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PSU and NW will beat us because they play ugly, grind it out basketball and we have had a tough time with them over the last few years. MSU just got the breaks beat off them by OSU so they will probably win their next 1000 in a row. Maryland and Illinois I can see us winning because of absolutly no reason at all, just think we will. 

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2 hours ago, Hoosier987 said:

I wouldn't look too much into the Kenpom predictions: 3-2 or 4-1 are my predictions.  The key is coming away this week 2-0 and finishing the first 1/3 of conference play with a record of 4-2.

Agree. 5 games is almost too much to look at with this team. Really at this point the key to the season is going 2-0 at home this week. Both of these teams are decent teams with some talent, but they're are also teams you should beat at home. Weeks like this week are the difference between finishing somewhere like 4-7 and finishing 8-11 in the conference. 

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5 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

If there was ever a year to live by the cliche "one game at at time" it is this one.  

 

While your point about the cliche is well-taken, I think the message you quoted has been even more applicable throughout many games this season.  :coffee:

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I think we beat PSU, lose to MW (Trap Game), Lose to MSU (Give them a good first half), Lose to Maryland in a close one, and beat Illinois like a bad child.

2-3 overall.  Slight disappointment in the record, but i care more about how they play than if they win or lose at this point.  If we could hold any team to less than 40% 3-point shooting, i would be happy.

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