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Updating Predictions? Next 12 Conf Games


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So picking up on other threads, the last 3 games have been promising -- and now we have some tough games coming -- as of now, what do you think our B1G record will be?

Sitting at 4-2, Next 12: 

I'm going with 10-8, and am somewhat thinking 11-7 (rosy glasses?)

Fri, Jan 19 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1  
Mon, Jan 22 7:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1  
Wed, Jan 24 9:00 PM ET Big Ten Network  
Sun, Jan 28 3:30 PM ET FOX  
Tue, Jan 30 7:00 PM ET  
Sat, Feb 3 TBD  
Mon, Feb 5 7:00 PM ET Big Ten Network  
Fri, Feb 9 7:30 PM ET FOX Sports 1  
Wed, Feb 14 8:30 PM ET Big Ten Network  
Sat, Feb 17 2:00 PM ET  
Tue, Feb 20 9:00 PM ET Big Ten Network  
Fri, Feb 23 8:00 PM ET FOX Sports 1  
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7-5 or 8-4. We could very well be a bubble team sweating it out on selection Sunday.

btw - Based on last years talent (and other years for that matter) and what we lost, I’m very confident in saying this same team with Crean as coach wouldn’t have won more than 12 games. It truly shows how good Archie is.

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The way I see it, if we lose every game we “should” lose (@MSU, Purdue, @OSU, MSU, OSU) and win every game we “should” win (the rest), we’d finish 11-7.  Considering it’s likely we win 1 or 2 we “shouldn’t” and lose 1 or 2 we “shouldn’t,” I think 10-8 is most likely and 9-9 or 11-7 is possible.  But that prediction could also be overly optimistic when you consider that the teams we’ve played during this three game win streak are pretty bad.

I’d be pretty happy with 10-8 considering how we struggled at first.

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8-4 to finish the year, leaving us at 12-6 with good wins over ND, Purdue, MSU, OSU. Great timing for a hopefully highly ranked OSU to come to Assembly and grab a real good win with the selection committee watching at the end of the year. Maybe we lose one of our big 3 games...but gotta have that OSU game.

Not sure on the B1G tournament setup, but we will get at least 1 win.

20 wins, trending up...would think they would love to put an Archie Miller-led IU team in the dance.

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37 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Wins:

  • Maryland
  • @ Illinois
  • OSU
  • @ Rutgers
  • Minnesota
  • Illinois
  • @ Iowa

Losses

  • @ MSU
  • Purdue
  • MSU
  • @ Nebraska
  • @ Ohio State
 
4-2 plus 7-5 equals 11-7 equals NIT unless we do something special in the BTT.

What would you think "something special" in the BTT would be? 2 wins? 3 wins?

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Wins:

  • Maryland
  • @ Illinois
  • OSU
  • @ Rutgers
  • Minnesota
  • Illinois
  • @ Iowa

Losses

  • @ MSU
  • Purdue
  • MSU
  • @ Nebraska
  • @ Ohio State
 
4-2 plus 7-5 equals 11-7 equals NIT unless we do something special in the BTT.

I see this much like you. However I think a twist might be we lose to OSU at home (OSU is flat out good right now) and beat Neb on the road.

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I kind of look at these 12 games in sets of 3. Not sure why, it's just how I grouped them in my mind when looking at the schedule. 

@MSU, UMD, @Ill - Need to go 2-1 here. The Maryland game scares me because of the quick turnaround, and Illinois because it's a road game and they're going to win a conference game at some point. But, a top half Big Ten Team should go 2-1 in this stretch. Whether IU is a top half team, I guess we'll find out. 

Purdue, @OSU, MSU - Need to go 1-2 here. IU has to find a win somewhere against one of these teams. 

@Rutgers, Minn, Illinois - This needs to be 3-0. Again, if we're a top 5ish Big Ten team, we go 3-0 here. We might not be though. 

@Iowa, @Neb, OSU - This may be the defining stretch. All road games in this conference are difficult. There are rarely gimme's on the road. Both these road games could go either way and are winnable. I could see 0-3 here, and I could see 3-0, but let's say 2-1. 

If this team has really turned a corner and the improved play is sustainable, I think the above is realistic, which would be 12-6 overall. I'm not predicting that though. I think the probable outcome is either 10-8 or 11-7. 

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I fall into the 11-7 or 10-8 camp  What is amazing for me to think about is that the B1G is so down that 11-7 is no guarantee of making the tournament.  I know we have the two bad losses, but most years a winning conference record gets you in no questions asked.  9-9 does it a lot as well.  I can remember before all the dilution due to expansion 8-10 teams making in or a rare occasion.  

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10 minutes ago, Parakeet Jones said:

I fall into the 11-7 or 10-8 camp  What is amazing for me to think about is that the B1G is so down that 11-7 is no guarantee of making the tournament.  I know we have the two bad losses, but most years a winning conference record gets you in no questions asked.  9-9 does it a lot as well.  I can remember before all the dilution due to expansion 8-10 teams making in or a rare occasion.  

I think you nailed it with the conference being down. The selection committee doesn't take conference into account AT ALL when it comes to selection. They simply look at the teams you played. Normally a winning record in conference means you beat a lot of quality teams. Unfortunately, that is not the case this year. Outside of the top four, Maryland is really our only shot for a plus victory.

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On 1/18/2018 at 9:32 AM, BGleas said:

I kind of look at these 12 games in sets of 3. Not sure why, it's just how I grouped them in my mind when looking at the schedule. 

 

I read just yesterday, that Steve Alford, when he was playing... grouped games into fours. Just to let you know you are not alone, when grouping games. And when the B1G goes to 20 games, four  or five game sets make sense once again.

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27 minutes ago, milehiiu said:

I read just yesterday, that Steve Alford, when he was playing... grouped games into fours. Just to let you know you are not alone, when grouping games. And when the B1G goes to 20 games, four  or five game sets make sense once again.

Memory is getting a little fuzzy, but I think I did it (groups of 3) as a player too once we hit league/conference play. Interesting how the mind works like that. 

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