5fouls

It's most easily explained comparing it to a 'normal' average. Whereas a normal average uses the raw number for each of the last 7 days, the moving average takes the result of the raw average of the last seven days and then averages that. So, basically, an average of an average. At least, that's the way I understand it.

So, is China lying about their numbers, or do they already have a vaccine?

Not saying we've beat this thing or that it's time to take the masks off, but the 7 day moving average of cases in the U.S. is down over 20,000 since July 25th. That has to be good news regardless of your position otherwise. July 25th - 69,328 seven day moving average August 18th - 49,284 seven day moving average

How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck would chuck wood?

Yeah. Did not pick up on that initially. I get what you guys are questioning now.

I took it as a simple message that Jesus/God will help guide us through the crisis. I don't think there was anything beyond that.

I was not insinuating anything. I was sharing what I thought was positive news amongst all the bad stuff. Whether we agree or disagree with how Sweden got to where they are today, you have to be encouraged by their numbers the last couple of weeks. No?

Agreed. The article specifically states that places like Florida and Arizona should not have additional spikes either, once the current one fully ebbs.

The data to support the theory that Sweden may be close to achieving herd immunity (see linked article 2 posts above) is strong. Seven day moving average of cases - 187 Seven day moving average of deaths - 1 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Interesting quote from the Newsweek article I linked above. Sounds like what happened in the U.S. That said, the article also talks about how herd immunity can be achieved with as little as 40% of the population, making it much more achievable than the 80% that has been previously thrown out there.. "This shift is because transmission and immunity are concentrated among the most active members of a population, who are often younger and less vulnerable," the researchers wrote. "If non-pharmaceutical interventions are very strict, no herd immunity is achieved, and infections will then resurge if they are eased too quickly."

A couple of herd immunity articles. The Newseeek article indicates that 40% may be enough to achieve herd immunity. https://www.newsweek.com/herd-immunity-slowing-virus-us-1525089 https://reason.com/2020/08/14/did-sweden-accidentally-blunder-into-covid-19-herd-immunity/

I liked Mario well enough, but I never warmed up to Michael. Marco seems to be a little bit of an after-thought.

I used to not like Dixon. But, he has grown on me a little bit. He obviously is one of the all time greats and it seems to me that he has the proper respect for the track and the 500.

Splitting hairs, but I don't think it was quite 27 seconds. I say one video that attached a timer to it and it counted 24. I just re-watched the video I linked and it looked to be about 25. Is there a specific time (something like 20 seconds) that they are allotted. Or, is that impossible since the longer the putt, the longer it would take to mark or tap in.

The Koepka, Rose, Spieth feature group flopped, with Koepka and Rose missing the cut, and Spieth getting in just on the cut line.

Penalty or not? I'm glad the official let it slide. https://www.pgatour.com/video/2020/08/14/rafa-cabrera-bello-makes-birdie-on-no--7-in-round-2-at-wyndham.html

Reading this while eating Chick-fil-A.

No surprise at all with Kawhi and Warren, but I thought Pau Gasol retired?

I think Thomas Bryant is a little underappreciated by IU fans. The dude plays his tail off every minute his is on the floor. Did that at IU as well.

Dr. Fauci is not a proponent of herd immunity. https://www.ibtimes.com/death-toll-would-be-enormous-totally-unacceptable-if-us-tried-herd-immunity-fauci-3028329

Every media source is going to present data in a way that best serves the narrative they are trying to present. That includes The New York Times. That said, just because a source is not widely known does not make it a bad source. I can't help to think about the early days of this thread where the perception was that the data published by Johns Hopkins was the gold standard, while an unknown source like Worldometer could not be trusted. Turns out that Johns Hopkins was using Worldometer's data. That's a very good example of perception bias influencing the way we look at things. The reality is that two people on opposite ends of the spectrum can take the exact same data and manipulate it in a way that fits the message they want to promote. Let's take the link you provided from the Times as an example. It has graphed actual deaths against expected deaths for every state, as well as New York City on it's own. Someone that wants to isolate the terrifying possibilities of this virus needs to look no further than the graph for NYC. By contrast, someone that lives in places like Hawaii and West Virginia can look at their graph and wonder why they have to wear masks, can't go to school, and not have a football season.

The link below provides some really interesting data on a National, State, and even County level. It normally runs a couple of days behind the current date, but if nothing else, the color-coding in the maps gives a good view of the big picture. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/

On the disappointing front, Indiana is 2.5 weeks into the mandate to wear masks in public and cases are still at record or near record levels each day. Testing is up, but not to the level that would normally result in the percentage increase we have seen. I had hoped to see numbers begin to go down.

I'm curious to know how the formula for setting the baseline number. To me, that's important. The Baby Boomer generation born between 1946 and 1964 is getting older. It's only natural that deaths will begin to rise as that happens. And, maybe it's already factored into the formula used to make these projections. But, it's important to note that the median age of the U.S. population went from 28.1 in 1970 to 35.3 in 2000, to 38.4 in 2019. That's significant.

The several years prior to 2020, despite being based in Louisville I worked approximately 25% of my time in downtown Chicago. Have not been to Chicago since February, or for that matter, I've not been in the office in Louisville since March. When things settle down, I envision a world where I only go into the office in Louisville when necessary, and my trips to Chicago may be limited to once or twice per year. Both cities have been ravaged, not only because of Covid, but because of social unrest. The amount if crime in Louisville right now is unprecedented. It literally went from being one of the safest cities in the U.S. to one of the most dangerous, seemingly overnight.