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Big Ten Roster Changes and Predictions


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Now that the May 30 NBA Draft deadline has passed, we go through the key players leaving and returning + recruiting rankings and key transfers for all 14 teams.

We also make an attempt at predicting the conference standings.  That exercise was not fun at all, as there is really no clear cut favorite in my mind and a bunch of teams that seem fairly similar.

Let me know your thoughts/predictions.

https://www.thedailyhoosier.com/big-ten-basketball-2018-19-key-roster-changes-and-first-prediction/

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I think this is one of the tougher years to rank the Big Ten pre-season.  Agree with you that the league champ could literally come from the top 8.  About the only thing I'm pretty confident about is that Purdue isn't going to be nearly as good as the GBI idiots think they're going to be.  Just about a guarantee that Carson's efficiency drops noticeably and Harms is going to discover just how much tougher taking the lead is after having Syphillis Man soaking up a lot of minutes in the middle last year. Unless he puts on 25-30 pounds over the summer, he's too skinny for starter minutes over a full Big Ten season.  It's a lot harder to replace four senior starters than those idiots seem to think.

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13 hours ago, FKIM01 said:

I think this is one of the tougher years to rank the Big Ten pre-season.  Agree with you that the league champ could literally come from the top 8.  About the only thing I'm pretty confident about is that Purdue isn't going to be nearly as good as the GBI idiots think they're going to be.  Just about a guarantee that Carson's efficiency drops noticeably and Harms is going to discover just how much tougher taking the lead is after having Syphillis Man soaking up a lot of minutes in the middle last year. Unless he puts on 25-30 pounds over the summer, he's too skinny for starter minutes over a full Big Ten season.  It's a lot harder to replace four senior starters than those idiots seem to think.

Come on man, it is herpes, get it right ;) 

I agree with you.  Defenses are not going to have to double Haarms like they did Haas.  Instead the focus is going to be on stopping Edwards.  He's a great player, and I'm sure he'll do fine, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a drop-off.  IMO he should have ridden the wave of momentum to the NBA.

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15 minutes ago, The Daily Hoosier said:

Come on man, it is herpes, get it right ;) 

I agree with you.  Defenses are not going to have to double Haarms like they did Haas.  Instead the focus is going to be on stopping Edwards.  He's a great player, and I'm sure he'll do fine, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a drop-off.  IMO he should have ridden the wave of momentum to the NBA.

I can't help but feel Edwards made a huge mistake, but I don't know what he was told.

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5 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I think IU at the top is a stretch.  I think Mich at the 9 is too low and Wisc at the 5 is too high.  I like Iowa at 3. If they can play defense like you said, could be a big year for them.  The rest seems pretty good

Who has more talent than IU to be above us? As he says, MSU is the only team on paper that would be considered close to us.

We have Archie now, so I don't feel we will be easily outcoached anytime soon. 

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32 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

I think IU at the top is a stretch.  I think Mich at the 9 is too low and Wisc at the 5 is too high.  I like Iowa at 3. If they can play defense like you said, could be a big year for them.  The rest seems pretty good

I think there are legit arguments for most teams 1-9.  On Michigan, I think they really lost the core of who they are with Wagner, MAAR, and Robinson.  I think with their perimeter shooting gone they won't be the same.  But as a acknowledged, it is probably a mistake to doubt Beilein.  Wisconsin will be interesting.  Was last year a fluke or are they a program in decline.  I think their starting 5 will be pretty solid.  Not sure they have any depth, which is what killed them last year.

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1 hour ago, The Daily Hoosier said:

Come on man, it is herpes, get it right ;) 

I agree with you.  Defenses are not going to have to double Haarms like they did Haas.  Instead the focus is going to be on stopping Edwards.  He's a great player, and I'm sure he'll do fine, but I wouldn't be surprised if there is a drop-off.  IMO he should have ridden the wave of momentum to the NBA.

What type of drop-off do you expect Carsen will have?

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53 minutes ago, IUaic said:

Who has more talent than IU to be above us? As he says, MSU is the only team on paper that would be considered close to us.

We have Archie now, so I don't feel we will be easily outcoached anytime soon. 

I would say MSU, IU, IOWA, NEBRASKA all have the talent to play for the title. There have been many years i thought IU was more talented, but that doesn't mean we will win the championship.  I just don't think we're the best team in the league at this point.  But that could change once we have played our Non-Con and are ready for Conference play.  I reserve the right to change me mind then :) 

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20 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

What type of drop-off do you expect Carsen will have?

I wouldn't be surprised if there is a drop off in his offensive efficiency, field goal %, turnovers -- those kind of things, as a result of a focus by defenses on stopping him.  He'll probably still get his points, but it will come at a cost.

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I don't know....I think some of you guys are sleeping on Wisconsin.

As much as I hate to say it, I think Bucky is going to be a lot better than what they are being given credit for. Getting Happ back was huge, but imo the return of Trice (especially) and King are going to be just as important. Losing those two guards had a big impact on their record last year, but the silver lining for them is that other kids who probably wouldn't have played as much--Davison in particular--got valuable experience. 

I don't like Wisconsin, and I don't know if Gard is a good coach or not. I do know that, last year as the exception, they have built a culture of winning  basketball over the last 15 years or so. They have a team full of kids that stay the course for 3-4  years, and that continuity and maturity have a good deal to do with their success. They play a style of basketball that most teams don't often see in a season, thus they often times win just because they can get their opponents out of their comforts zones, and they can then dictate the tempo and speed of the game.

I hope not, but I think that Wisconsin is a top 4 team in conference this season. 

 

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Good analysis...the biggest takeaway I got after reading is how much parity there will be next year. I mean I kind of knew that before reading at a high level, but after reading your piece I have to agree you can make solid arguments for 1-8 being able to be the top dog. The next tier is really nothing to slouch at either. No game for us next year will be "unwinable" on the road or at home, but we'll need to fight almost every game tooth and nail to get the W's...especially those road games. 

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1 hour ago, Jerry Lundergaard said:

I don't know....I think some of you guys are sleeping on Wisconsin.

As much as I hate to say it, I think Bucky is going to be a lot better than what they are being given credit for. Getting Happ back was huge, but imo the return of Trice (especially) and King are going to be just as important. Losing those two guards had a big impact on their record last year, but the silver lining for them is that other kids who probably wouldn't have played as much--Davison in particular--got valuable experience. 

I don't like Wisconsin, and I don't know if Gard is a good coach or not. I do know that, last year as the exception, they have built a culture of winning  basketball over the last 15 years or so. They have a team full of kids that stay the course for 3-4  years, and that continuity and maturity have a good deal to do with their success. They play a style of basketball that most teams don't often see in a season, thus they often times win just because they can get their opponents out of their comforts zones, and they can then dictate the tempo and speed of the game.

I hope not, but I think that Wisconsin is a top 4 team in conference this season. 

 

Gard is not Bo.

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3 hours ago, Stlboiler23 said:

What type of drop-off do you expect Carsen will have?

An efficiency drop off. It's almost unfathomable to think a guy who wasn't good enough to go pro would magically get better when he goes from being the best of 5 good players to having next to no help. 

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39 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

I think his efficiency will go down but I still expect him to be an All-B1G performer who has a chance to win POY

The question will be is if Purdue is something like 10-10 in conference, will he get penalized because of the team record, or will he make it because he has the reputation coming in?  I can see that costing him first team much like it did Morgan IMO.  Love his game though no matter what.  He's a stud.

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54 minutes ago, Stlboiler23 said:

I think his efficiency will go down but I still expect him to be an All-B1G performer who has a chance to win POY

Carson Edwards is Tony Carr. Good player, won't even sniff POY discussions though. Too inefficient on a mediocre team. 

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19 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Carson Edwards is Tony Carr. Good player, won't even sniff POY discussions though. Too inefficient on a mediocre team. 

I see that as a real possibility.  Maybe he's good enough to overcome it, but every game plan will be stopping Carson.  I'd make Harms and Noel beat me.

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