5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 IU sitting at 1-1. In reviewing the remaining conference games on the schedule, I can find 4 guaranteed losses. Purdue Michigan State X 2 @ Minnesota I can find only 1 game that I would consider a guaranteed win Home against Illinois Other Home games we should win Penn State Northwestern Ohio State Other Road games we likely lose Wisconsin Ohio State Games I would define as 'swing' Maryland - Home Minnesota - Home Illinois - Road Iowa - Road Nebraska - Road Rutgers - Road If the games I've identified as 'guaranteed' and 'should' play out as I have listed, and we split the swing games, that's 7 more conference wins and 9 more conference losses, for a 8-10 conference record. Assuming we beat Youngstown next week, that would give us an overall regular season record of 15-15. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierhoopster Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, 5fouls said: IU sitting at 1-1. In reviewing the remaining conference games on the schedule, I can find 4 guaranteed losses. Purdue Michigan State X 2 @ Minnesota I can find only 1 game that I would consider a guaranteed win Home against Illinois Other Home games we should win Penn State Northwestern Ohio State Other Road games we likely lose Wisconsin Ohio State Games I would define as 'swing' Maryland - Home Minnesota - Home Illinois - Road Iowa - Road Nebraska - Road Rutgers - Road If the games I've identified as 'guaranteed' and 'should' play out as I have listed, and we split the swing games, that's 7 more conference wins and 9 more conference losses, for a 8-10 conference record. Assuming we beat Youngstown next week, that would give us an overall regular season record of 15-15. Yuck. have you watched Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CauseThatsMyDJ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 At Michigan State is the only game I’m willing to call a guaranteed loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, CauseThatsMyDJ said: At Michigan State is the only game I’m willing to call a guaranteed loss. I would say the Purdue game is pretty much a loss as well. To me I think Purdue is the best team in the conference and will win it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CauseThatsMyDJ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Just now, IU Scott said: I would say the Purdue game is pretty much a loss as well. To me I think Purdue is the best team in the conference and will win it. They aren’t Duke. It’s certainly not a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said: have you watched Wisconsin? I have watched Wisconsin. I've also watched us play in the Kohl Center the last 20 years. That's a likely loss this early in the conference season. If it was later in the schedule, I may have considered it a swing game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 It all depends. The story of this season is going to be consistency. Will guys like Davis, Johnson, Newkirk and Green develop any, or is this who they are? If we can get consistency, then IU could surprise, if the roller coaster is who they are then we probably end up a couple games over .500 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 The only glimmer of hope IU has against Purdue is that it is a rivalry game. That said, we do not match up with them well at all. They are very big and they shoot the 3 pointer well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Proud2BAHoosier Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 I'm resigned to the fact this is a throw away season and I also see a .500 record too..... Hate to say it even though I'm Proud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 11 minutes ago, BGleas said: It all depends. The story of this season is going to be consistency. Will guys like Davis, Johnson, Newkirk and Green develop any, or is this who they are? If we can get consistency, then IU could surprise, if the roller coaster is who they are then we probably end up a couple games over .500 or so. I'm not sure the schedule allows for us to remain inconsistent and finish over .500 in the conference. Maybe if we played MSU only once, and Purdue (a loss) was a road game while Rutgers/Nebraska (swing) were home games, I could buy a 10-8 record while still being inconsistent. But, the way it is, we MUST become more consistent to have dreams of 10-8 or 11-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, 5fouls said: I'm not sure the schedule allows for us to remain inconsistent and finish over .500 in the conference. Maybe if we played MSU only once, and Purdue (a loss) was a road game while Rutgers/Nebraska (swing) were home games, I could buy a 10-8 record while still being inconsistent. But, the way it is, we MUST become more consistent to have dreams of 10-8 or 11-7. I meant maybe a couple games over .500 overall if IU remains inconsistent, which would be .500 in conference probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 minute ago, BGleas said: I meant maybe a couple games over .500 overall if IU remains inconsistent, which would be .500 in conference probably. Unfortunately, I see a losing record as a higher probability than any scenario that gets us to 17-13 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 22, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 KenPom currently has us 12th in the BIG. Ranked ahead of only Illinois and Rutgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 As bad as ISU and FW where, surely we can agree those were anomolies and the team we've seen the other 11 games is more so who we are? If that's the case, I see us winning 10 or maybe 11 more conference games. I don't know where that puts us for the season as far as postseason play, but I don't see us finishing below .500. I kinda think 12-6 and making it to Saturday of BTT gets us in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, 5fouls said: KenPom currently has us 12th in the BIG. Ranked ahead of only Illinois and Rutgers. We have two really weird games impacting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FW_Hoosier Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: As bad as ISU and FW where, surely we can agree those were anomolies and the team we've seen the other 11 games is more so who we are? If that's the case, I see us winning 10 or maybe 11 more conference games. I don't know where that puts us for the season as far as postseason play, but I don't see us finishing below .500. I kinda think 12-6 and making it to Saturday of BTT gets us in. At this point, I think you have to be looking through pretty heavily tinted cream and crimson glasses to see us getting to 10 conference wins. I guess anything is possible, but I just think this team is way too limited. Not enough talent and not enough heart. Going to be really difficult to string together wins in the Big Ten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CauseThatsMyDJ Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 13 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: As bad as ISU and FW where, surely we can agree those were anomolies and the team we've seen the other 11 games is more so who we are? If that's the case, I see us winning 10 or maybe 11 more conference games. I don't know where that puts us for the season as far as postseason play, but I don't see us finishing below .500. I kinda think 12-6 and making it to Saturday of BTT gets us in. Two bad losses and only one quality win unless we manage to knock off Sparty or Purdue. .500 in the B1G and the NIT is really the realistic goal for this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWatShot Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, Hoosierhoopster said: have you watched Wisconsin? That game isn't for another two weeks and we've already been whistled for two fouls. The Call Center is unforgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fundamentals Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 hours ago, FW_Hoosier said: At this point, I think you have to be looking through pretty heavily tinted cream and crimson glasses to see us getting to 10 conference wins. I guess anything is possible, but I just think this team is way too limited. Not enough talent and not enough heart. Going to be really difficult to string together wins in the Big Ten. Absolutely agree with this. But, I do feel we will see this team continue to improve, sometimes taking a step back, but generally improving throughout the season. Should finish pre-conference at 8-6. IF, they somehow finish 10-8 in conference, that puts them at 18-14, before the Big Ten Tournament. For a transition year, can definitely build off of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 Right now this team can tank or surprise. I have no idea which way it will fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier987 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, rico said: Right now this team can tank or surprise. I have no idea which way it will fall. Correct - a product of a new system being learned while being stuck in old habits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 47 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said: Correct - a product of a new system being learned while being stuck in old habits. Agree, though I think it’s also a product of how talented of a team we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slojoe Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 As it stands now in my opinion finishing 9-9 in B1G is the ceiling for this team. If they don't really shape up in a short period of time, they will need a flashlight to get around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 i like the optimism that some still show after a win. wait til the next loss and people will be back to realizing this is nowhere near a tourney team. .500 seems like a reasonable goal. do we forget how hard it is to win a B1G game on the road even against the weaker teams? .500 in the conference for this team would be a really nice surprise to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosierhoopster Posted December 22, 2017 Report Share Posted December 22, 2017 9 hours ago, 5fouls said: I have watched Wisconsin. I've also watched us play in the Kohl Center the last 20 years. That's a likely loss this early in the conference season. If it was later in the schedule, I may have considered it a swing game. This year's Wisconsin team is another animal. They're a bad team. I don't consider it a likely loss, more like a who knows, which for me applies for most of our games. I thought the timing of your thread here was kind of interesting. We just played a good game, really, all around. We clearly played a horrible game, all around, against FW. But the guys also have shown the ability to play well, including against teams like Duke, Louisville and ND. I said interesting because at the start of the year you were more optimistic than most on this team's chances, and discounted the loss of 3 double digit scorers to the NBA. I was not optimistic. I wouldn't say I'm really optimistic now, but I see reason to believe we can do better than this projection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.