Ten Game Season - What does IU have to do to make the NCAA tournament?

[Euroclydon]

It's crunch time. There are ten games remaining with six road games and four at home including Illinois and Wisconsin. Five of the games are against currently ranked teams. Currently #36 Net and #58 RPI. 

The "easiest" games would likely be @ Maryland, @ Northwestern, Maryland and Rutgers. That said, there are seemingly no easy B1G games on the road for IU. Saturday's game at Maryland could be considered a must win. In fact, lose any one of those four games and getting to 20 wins becomes very challenging.

As of today, CBS has IU (11) in the tournament playing Xavier (6) in the East with Kansas (1), Duke (3), Kentucky (4), along with Wis (2), UConn, Miami, Alabama, etc. That would be a tough region.

How many wins does IU need to get in? I think it depends on who they beat but with the right combination of wins they could make it with 18/19 wins and not getting punked by a lesser team in the B1G tournament.

What games will they win? I think they have to get at least 4 out of @ Maryland, @Northwestern, Maryland, @Minny, Rutgers games and then at least one of the two homes games (Illinois and/or Wisconsin). It would be asking a lot to beat either of MSU, OSU or Purdue on the road especially if Rob and Lander are not playing.

On the plus side - when you have a shot at that many ranked teams you can significantly improve your resume.

 

[GaloisGroupe]

25 minutes ago, Euroclydon said:

As of today, CBS has IU (11) in the tournament playing Xavier (6) in the East with Kansas (1), Duke (3), Kentucky (4), along with Wis (2), UConn, Miami, Alabama, etc. That would be a tough region.

I like that match-up. I think our defense would drive them nuts. Nunge has had some moments though. 

5-5 gets it done. 4-6 maybe? But I would not bet on it. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by GaloisGroupe

[Parakeet Jones]

I think we need four more wins. 10-10 in B1G should do it. 

[5fouls]

When I see a 14-5 Xavier team seeded that much higher than a 15-5 Indiana team, it burns me up.  Why is it like that?  It's like that because they scheduled their non-conference a lot better.  I've pasted their non-conference schedule results below.  Instead of playing a bunch of sub-300 ranked teams, they played WINNABLE games against good, but not great competition.   Our non-conference schedule needs to look more like that.  KenPom rates their non-conference schedule at 150 and ours at 326.  

[Hippopotamo]

I think our metrics are a lot better than the eye test of the media and non-IU fans. If we started the season ranked #15, we’d still be in the top 25 with the exact same wins and losses. 

[tdhoosier]

3 hours ago, Euroclydon said:

It's crunch time. There are ten games remaining with six road games and four at home including Illinois and Wisconsin. Five of the games are against currently ranked teams. Currently #36 Net and #58 RPI. 

The "easiest" games would likely be @ Maryland, @ Northwestern, Maryland and Rutgers. That said, there are seemingly no easy B1G games on the road for IU. Saturday's game at Maryland could be considered a must win. In fact, lose any one of those four games and getting to 20 wins becomes very challenging.

As of today, CBS has IU (11) in the tournament playing Xavier (6) in the East with Kansas (1), Duke (3), Kentucky (4), along with Wis (2), UConn, Miami, Alabama, etc. That would be a tough region.

How many wins does IU need to get in? I think it depends on who they beat but with the right combination of wins they could make it with 18/19 wins and not getting punked by a lesser team in the B1G tournament.

What games will they win? I think they have to get at least 4 out of @ Maryland, @Northwestern, Maryland, @Minny, Rutgers games and then at least one of the two homes games (Illinois and/or Wisconsin). It would be asking a lot to beat either of MSU, OSU or Purdue on the road especially if Rob and Lander are not playing.

On the plus side - when you have a shot at that many ranked teams you can significantly improve your resume.

 

I’ll bet money we lose a few of the ones we’re supposed to win and win a few that we are supposed to lose. That’s our M.O. 

[5fouls]

6 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

I’ll bet money we lose a few of the ones we’re supposed to win and win a few that we are supposed to lose. That’s our M.O. 

Be careful with that kind of talk, I think @bluegrassIU is an agent with the Treasury Department.  Either that or he is a full time Manny that takes care of his cousin's/sister's kids. 

Edited January 28, 2022 by 5fouls

[IUfaninIllinois]

2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

When I see a 14-5 Xavier team seeded that much higher than a 15-5 Indiana team, it burns me up.  Why is it like that?  It's like that because they scheduled their non-conference a lot better.  I've pasted their non-conference schedule results below.  Instead of playing a bunch of sub-300 ranked teams, they played WINNABLE games against good, but not great competition.   Our non-conference schedule needs to look more like that.  KenPom rates their non-conference schedule at 150 and ours at 326.  

I think you are 1000% spot on. I think as our team gets better Woody schedules better. I’m sure the non conference had to be close to 70-80% done when he took the job. 
 

[02Hoosier]

1 hour ago, IUfaninIllinois said:

I think you are 1000% spot on. I think as our team gets better Woody schedules better. I’m sure the non conference had to be close to 70-80% done when he took the job. 
 

I specifically remember CMW getting a little upset about a question(s) on the schedule early on in the season and him basically saying he’s not in charge of the schedule and he just plays who is in front of him. That being said I’m sure he’ll have more of a say in future schedules now that he is here and established.

[FKIM01]

5 hours ago, Parakeet Jones said:

I think we need four more wins. 10-10 in B1G should do it. 

This.  Would love to see more but with what is coming, 4-6 I think is fairly safe unless the losses are terrible.

[GaloisGroupe]

9 game season

[KoB2011]

First of all, the notion that we are an 11 seed is a joke IMO. We are top 30 in most metrics and around 35 in NET.

That said, the final 9 games will determine a lot and I’m bullish on this team shutting up a lot of people who still doubt us. We could very, very easily only have one loss currently and we have absolutely continued to improve. I think it’s incredibly possible we finish with something like 12-13 conference wins, a good BTT seed that enables us to win a couple games, and something in the 4-7 seed range.

Thats obviously projecting, but I don’t think you could justify making us an 11 today. I think we would be more in the 7-9 range right now.

For us to miss the tournament would take a bit of a collapse at this point, IMO. 

[BruceDouglas]

IMO IU should get in barring a disaster. What would improve their seed is a good road win because right now they haven't beaten any likely tournament teams away from AH and have a losing road record. Combine that with the weak SOS and that's not going to look good to the committee.

[5fouls]

7 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

IMO IU should get in barring a disaster. What would improve their seed is a good road win because right now they haven't beaten any likely tournament teams away from AH and have a losing road record. Combine that with the weak SOS and that's not going to look good to the committee.

I get tired of hearing about lack of road wins.  We have more road wins than Gonzaga, LSU, Alabama, and Texas Tech.  We have just as many road wins as Duke, Texas, Tennessee, and Iowa State.  Why would IU's road losses be a bigger deal than Illinois' home losses?  

[IUFLA]

39 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

IMO IU should get in barring a disaster. What would improve their seed is a good road win because right now they haven't beaten any likely tournament teams away from AH and have a losing road record. Combine that with the weak SOS and that's not going to look good to the committee.

So what sparkling road win do the Illini have, or am I missing something....

You've beaten Iowa (4-5 in the Big 10), Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and got your asses kicked at Maryland...what "likely tournament team" have you beaten on the road?

[BruceDouglas]

18 hours ago, IUFLA said:

So what sparkling road win do the Illini have, or am I missing something....

You've beaten Iowa (4-5 in the Big 10), Minnesota, Nebraska, and Northwestern, and got your asses kicked at Maryland...what "likely tournament team" have you beaten on the road?

 

18 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I get tired of hearing about lack of road wins.  We have more road wins than Gonzaga, LSU, Alabama, and Texas Tech.  We have just as many road wins as Duke, Texas, Tennessee, and Iowa State.  Why would IU's road losses be a bigger deal than Illinois' home losses?  

Guys trying to stay on topic, this is about IU's chances.

And you're not competing just against Illinois but 356 other programs as well.

Sure, Illinois (and most teams) would benefit with more road wins as well but there's a reason the Illini are projected as a 5 seed or so right now vs IU's 8.

[IUFLA]

2 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

 

Guys trying to stay on topic, this is about IU's chances.

And you're not competing just against Illinois but 356 other programs as well.

Sure, Illinois (and most teams) would benefit with more road wins as well but there's a reason the Illini are projected as a 5 seed or so right now vs IU's 8.

No, currently we ARE competing with Illinois...we finish higher in the Big 10, we'll get a better seed...simple as that...

Your team is about to run into the "strength" in your strength of schedule...We'll see how that goes...

 

[BruceDouglas]

Just now, IUFLA said:

No, currently we ARE competing with Illinois...we finish higher in the Big 10, we'll get a better seed...simple as that...

Your team is about to run into the "strength" in your strength of schedule...We'll see how that goes...

 

Conference standings/record aren't (and can't be) a criteria. Unbalanced scheduling means you can't compare conference records within the same league, much less between other leagues.

Last year Purdue was 13-6 in the B1G and got a 4 seed. Ohio St was behind them at 12-8, got a 2 seed

Similar examples almost every season.

Indiana's remaining schedule looks pretty tough as well.

Yes, you are competing with Illinois....and 356 others. Aside from the conference champs, conference affiliation means nothing to the committee.

[5fouls]

22 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

 

Guys trying to stay on topic, this is about IU's chances.

And you're not competing just against Illinois but 356 other programs as well.

Sure, Illinois (and most teams) would benefit with more road wins as well but there's a reason the Illini are projected as a 5 seed or so right now vs IU's 8.

Wasn't trying to compare against Illinois, nor specifically arguing with you directly.  The IU doesnt win on the road is a tired argument of years past.  Yet, it continues to be brought up this year when, as I pointed out, there are 8-10 schools ahead of us in the NET that have the same number or fewer road wins.

You just happened to be the one who brought the topic up.  Nothing personal to you or Illinois.

Edited January 31, 2022 by 5fouls

[IowaHoosierFan]

19 hours ago, 5fouls said:

I get tired of hearing about lack of road wins.  We have more road wins than Gonzaga, LSU, Alabama, and Texas Tech.  We have just as many road wins as Duke, Texas, Tennessee, and Iowa State.  Why would IU's road losses be a bigger deal than Illinois' home losses?  

How the heck is Duke still ranked 9th?  They have beaten 1 ranked team (Gonzaga) and lost most of their road games to ranked opponents.  

Edited January 31, 2022 by IowaHoosierFan

[5fouls]

If someone wants to disparage IU's resume this season, it has to be rooted in non-conference strength of schedule.  We played way too many games against 300+ teams.

The road win thing needs to stop now.  As does any other argument outside of non-con SOS.  No, IU is not a perfect team.  But, neither is any other team in the country. 

A 7-4 Big Ten record is a level of accomplishment that a lot of teams at the top of conferences like the WCC, Pac 12, Big East, an ACC would have difficulty matching.

[KoB2011]

6 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

If someone wants to disparage IU's resume this season, it has to be rooted in non-conference strength of schedule.  We played way too many games against 300+ teams.

The road win thing needs to stop now.  As does any other argument outside of non-con SOS.  No, IU is not a perfect team.  But, neither is any other team in the country. 

A 7-4 Big Ten record is a level of accomplishment that a lot of teams at the top of conferences like the WCC, Pac 12, Big East, an ACC would have difficulty matching.

Spot on, and I’ve seen nothing from this team to make me with our final conference record won’t be of a similar win percentage. If we win 12+ conference games that is absolutely an accomplishment to be proud of and we should be seeded appropriately.

Regardless of seed, I can’t imagine a high seed being thrilled if they see us in their bracket as a potential early opponent. We have the ingredients needed for a good run; a defense that travels, a legitimate elite player who can take over games, and the guard play needed to win in March. 

[Billingsley99]

16 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

If someone wants to disparage IU's resume this season, it has to be rooted in non-conference strength of schedule.  We played way too many games against 300+ teams.

The road win thing needs to stop now.  As does any other argument outside of non-con SOS.  No, IU is not a perfect team.  But, neither is any other team in the country. 

A 7-4 Big Ten record is a level of accomplishment that a lot of teams at the top of conferences like the WCC, Pac 12, Big East, an ACC would have difficulty matching.

Outside of Michigan IU has been in the game right to the end.  7-4 in the best league is a big accomplishment. I agree the non conferences SOS is the only thing that can be held against them and this is all with a 1st year coach. 

[fasbjd]

Perhaps the Crossroads Classic will pay off some dividends in it's last year.  Notre Dame has two huge games ahead of them - tonight versus Duke then at Miami.  They currently stand in the low 60s on the NET and would have to get to the top 50 to be a tier 1 victory so may be a stretch for that...but as it stands they have a decent chance at winning the ACC, particularly if they have a good week.

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, BruceDouglas said:

Conference standings/record aren't (and can't be) a criteria. Unbalanced scheduling means you can't compare conference records within the same league, much less between other leagues.

Last year Purdue was 13-6 in the B1G and got a 4 seed. Ohio St was behind them at 12-8, got a 2 seed

Similar examples almost every season.

This is true. I had the same discussion with someone else ( @5fouls?) last year...My bad...

But the fact remains, we indeed are competing against Illinois for position in the tournament...Illinois is in the same boat we are...they're in good position, but with the schedule you're heading into, I wouldn't be too assured that even getting in the tournament is a done deal...