Ten Game Season - What does IU have to do to make the NCAA tournament?

[kyhoosier29]

2 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

How the heck is Duke still ranked 9th?  They have beaten 1 ranked team (Gonzaga) and lost most of their road games to ranked opponents.  

I know we’re probably about where we should be (31), but why does it seem every other team gets a massive boost with a big win (similar records) and we seem to get no respect. Alabama is back on the brink with a lot of head-scratching losses. I know they have some good wins, but they’ve played mediocre basketball of late. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by kyhoosier29

[SpiderMonkey]

We have followed up the big wins with a loss shortly thereafter. 

• Beat Ohio State and then 7 days later lost to Iowa after a really ugly second half. 
• Beat Purdue and then 3 days later got ran out of our own gym by Michigan.

Follow up big wins with more wins and then you'll see that jump in respect with the voters.

Edited January 31, 2022 by SpiderMonkey

[Hoosier51]

The fact that the Hoosiers still aren't ranked is a joke. LSU, ISU and even Alabama who is closer to be ranked then IU have no better of a resume then the Hoosiers LATELY. In fact, LSU has lost three out of four. Pre-season polls cloud people's judgement on these rankings.

When the Hoosiers beat the Illini Saturday, they will probably drop in the rankings lol. 😁

[GaloisGroupe]

We do not need a real upset to finish the year with a solid regular season record of 22-7.

If we take care of business, i.e., win home games and road game against MD caliber or worse, we will go 6-3 (I have 7-2 below, because I cannot bring myself to put an L next to the Purdue game 😉).

1. Sat, Feb 5 vs 18 Illinois: W (home)
2. Tue, Feb 8 @ Northwestern: W (non-elite)
3. Sat, Feb 12 @ 13 Michigan State: L (elite road)
4. Tue, Feb 15 vs 11 Wisconsin: W (home)
5. Sat, Feb 19 @ 16 Ohio State: L (elite road)
6. Thu, Feb 24 vs Maryland: W (home and non-elite)
7. Sun, Feb 27 @ Minnesota: W (non-elite)
8. Wed, Mar 2 vs Rutgers: W (home)
9. Sat, Mar 5 @ 4 Purdue: W (Purdue, I cannot pick against us)

NOTE: We have 2 losses that violate this home and less than MD on the road right now (Michigan and PSU), so probably will wind up with an extra loss. 

[NotIThatLives]

45 minutes ago, kyhoosier29 said:

I know we’re probably about where we should be (31), but why does it seem every other team gets a massive boost with a big win (similar records) and we seem to get no respect. Alabama is back on the brink with a lot of head-scratching losses. I know they have some good wins, but they’ve played mediocre basketball of late. 

Alabama just skunked Baylor a few days ago with Quinerly looking like his old self.  

But we don't get the respect because of meltdowns like at Wisconsin and Iowa and losing to penn st.  We already know this.  This team is so close to having one loss but voters don't pay as much attention to those details as we do, knowing our own team inside and out.  And of course, preseason rankings are still boosting a team like Texas.

If we can find a way yo keep winning, we will look great come selection Sunday.  Some of the computer rankings will start to really shape up the next few weeks as well.  Doesn't kenpom taper out all preseason stuff by early February?  They may already be out of it by now.     

[GaloisGroupe]

1 hour ago, NotIThatLives said:

Alabama just skunked Baylor a few days ago with Quinerly looking like his old self.  

But we don't get the respect because of meltdowns like at Wisconsin and Iowa and losing to penn st.  We already know this.  This team is so close to having one loss but voters don't pay as much attention to those details as we do, knowing our own team inside and out.  And of course, preseason rankings are still boosting a team like Texas.

If we can find a way yo keep winning, we will look great come selection Sunday.  Some of the computer rankings will start to really shape up the next few weeks as well.  Doesn't kenpom taper out all preseason stuff by early February?  They may already be out of it by now.     

Agreed. 

I am quite sure that later season rankings are associated with preseason rankings, even after controlling for in season record. 

That being said, I am ok with us not being ranked yet. We need to beat a good team and then not follow-up with a bad loss. Luckily, if we beat UI on Saturday, we will not have an opportunity to screw it up on the road against Northwestern (before the poll) and MAYBE that will be good enough to get us into the poll. 

Edited January 31, 2022 by GaloisGroupe

[Hoosierfan1215]

4 hours ago, GaloisGroupe said:

We do not need a real upset to finish the year with a solid regular season record of 22-7.

If we take care of business, i.e., win home games and road game against MD caliber or worse, we will go 6-3 (I have 7-2 below, because I cannot bring myself to put an L next to the Purdue game 😉).

1. Sat, Feb 5 vs 18 Illinois: W (home)
2. Tue, Feb 8 @ Northwestern: W (non-elite)
3. Sat, Feb 12 @ 13 Michigan State: L (elite road)
4. Tue, Feb 15 vs 11 Wisconsin: W (home)
5. Sat, Feb 19 @ 16 Ohio State: L (elite road)
6. Thu, Feb 24 vs Maryland: W (home and non-elite)
7. Sun, Feb 27 @ Minnesota: W (non-elite)
8. Wed, Mar 2 vs Rutgers: W (home)
9. Sat, Mar 5 @ 4 Purdue: W (Purdue, I cannot pick against us)

NOTE: We have 2 losses that violate this home and less than MD on the road right now (Michigan and PSU), so probably will wind up with an extra loss. 

We do this we are a top 15 team in polls. 

[kyhoosier29]

7 hours ago, GaloisGroupe said:

We do not need a real upset to finish the year with a solid regular season record of 22-7.

If we take care of business, i.e., win home games and road game against MD caliber or worse, we will go 6-3 (I have 7-2 below, because I cannot bring myself to put an L next to the Purdue game 😉).

1. Sat, Feb 5 vs 18 Illinois: W (home)
2. Tue, Feb 8 @ Northwestern: W (non-elite)
3. Sat, Feb 12 @ 13 Michigan State: L (elite road)
4. Tue, Feb 15 vs 11 Wisconsin: W (home)
5. Sat, Feb 19 @ 16 Ohio State: L (elite road)
6. Thu, Feb 24 vs Maryland: W (home and non-elite)
7. Sun, Feb 27 @ Minnesota: W (non-elite)
8. Wed, Mar 2 vs Rutgers: W (home)
9. Sat, Mar 5 @ 4 Purdue: W (Purdue, I cannot pick against us)

NOTE: We have 2 losses that violate this home and less than MD on the road right now (Michigan and PSU), so probably will wind up with an extra loss. 

I would be thrilled with 5-4 in that stretch. Although 7-2 is realistic I think that is a little too optimistic. I hope like hell I’m wrong but I’d be pretty surprised if we beat both Nwestern and Minny on the road, and beating Purdue on the road ….. well 🧐. 

[tdhoosier]

18 hours ago, GaloisGroupe said:

We do not need a real upset to finish the year with a solid regular season record of 22-7.

If we take care of business, i.e., win home games and road game against MD caliber or worse, we will go 6-3 (I have 7-2 below, because I cannot bring myself to put an L next to the Purdue game 😉).

1. Sat, Feb 5 vs 18 Illinois: W (home)
2. Tue, Feb 8 @ Northwestern: W (non-elite)
3. Sat, Feb 12 @ 13 Michigan State: L (elite road)
4. Tue, Feb 15 vs 11 Wisconsin: W (home)
5. Sat, Feb 19 @ 16 Ohio State: L (elite road)
6. Thu, Feb 24 vs Maryland: W (home and non-elite)
7. Sun, Feb 27 @ Minnesota: W (non-elite)
8. Wed, Mar 2 vs Rutgers: W (home)
9. Sat, Mar 5 @ 4 Purdue: W (Purdue, I cannot pick against us)

NOTE: We have 2 losses that violate this home and less than MD on the road right now (Michigan and PSU), so probably will wind up with an extra loss. 

It’s so hard looking past the next game, let alone the next 3 games.  

If we beat IL, that NW game is a trap. I’m tellin’ ya. I have a feeling we come into that game lacking urgency. Not because Woody is a bad coach, but because the team is still learning how to win consistently and that every single game in B1G play requires urgency. 

That said, I wouldn’t be surprised that we could follow up a potential NW loss with a MSU win. As we’ve learned, many of these guys aren’t afraid to play at the Breslin center.  Whether that scenario plays out or not, going 2-3 in that stretch will be a huge success, but 1-3 is a very likely outcome (and we shouldn’t freak out if this happens).

 

[GaloisGroupe]

11 hours ago, kyhoosier29 said:

I would be thrilled with 5-4 in that stretch. Although 7-2 is realistic I think that is a little too optimistic. I hope like hell I’m wrong but I’d be pretty surprised if we beat both Nwestern and Minny on the road, and beating Purdue on the road ….. well 🧐. 

I can't shake this feeling that we will beat Purdue again. I know it defies all logic, but... 🙂

I would also be thrilled with 5-4. Honestly, 4-5 should get it done (tournament). I just do not like the idea of "backing" into the tourney. 

[KoB2011]

11 hours ago, kyhoosier29 said:

I would be thrilled with 5-4 in that stretch. Although 7-2 is realistic I think that is a little too optimistic. I hope like hell I’m wrong but I’d be pretty surprised if we beat both Nwestern and Minny on the road, and beating Purdue on the road ….. well 🧐. 

Agreed. 5-4 is the benchmark in this stretch IMO. There's definitely upside for better as you said, but I think expecting that is putting unfair expectations on this team at this point. 

[IUFLA]

Why not us?

Why not now?

[southsidehoosier]

1 hour ago, GaloisGroupe said:

I can't shake this feeling that we will beat Purdue again. I know it defies all logic, but... 🙂

I would also be thrilled with 5-4. Honestly, 4-5 should get it done (tournament). I just do not like the idea of "backing" into the tourney. 

2012 the last season sweep?

[kyhoosier29]

33 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

Why not us?

Why not now?

Cautiously, sure, but I need to see it. NWestern to me will be a much tougher road win. We’re better, but we’ve struggled at that place. Neb didn’t do much for me bc they are really bad. MD has got me thinking we might be turning the corner from a “road” standpoint. Beat Nwestern and I start thinking anything is possible moving forward. 

[IUFLA]

1 hour ago, kyhoosier29 said:

Cautiously, sure, but I need to see it. NWestern to me will be a much tougher road win. We’re better, but we’ve struggled at that place. Neb didn’t do much for me bc they are really bad. MD has got me thinking we might be turning the corner from a “road” standpoint. Beat Nwestern and I start thinking anything is possible moving forward. 

I understand the trepidation...previous years have conditioned us all...

But Coach Woodson, despite that cool, laid back demeanor, is first and foremost a competitor...I can almost guarantee he's not saying "top half" or "top 5."

He wants to wIn, and he wants to win NOW. And he has these kids believing...

He has ME believing...we've beaten 2 of the teams ahead of us, and had a 3rd on the ropes...and we have another shot at them...at home this time...and we have the other 2 coming up soon...

No team in this league is going to win 18 league games...16 is a stretch...

So we're right there...take them one at a time as Coach Woodson says, and let's see what happens...

Edited February 1, 2022 by IUFLA

[Fundamentals]

This bunch will always be ready for the big game.  Improvement needs to come with the middling teams of the conference.   

[IowaHoosierFan]

Going to be honest here. 

I don't have faith in this team or coach yet.  I know we have been playing good ball.  I know we're pretty close to a 1 loss team.  I know all this.  I see the talent.  I see how we're playing.  I watch the same games you do.  I just can't.  I can't bring myself to think we're not going to go 2-7 down this stretch and stumble into the B1G tourney and lose the first round.

I so want to believe but as soon as i come here or start to watch the game, I just assume we're going to lose somehow.  I am surprised when we win, happy, but surprised.  I guess the last 10 years or so really took a toll on my fandom.  I hope we finish strong this year, maybe that will re-lay the foundation and i can be more optimistic going forward. 

So if i sound skeptical in my post, its because i truly am.  And i know i shouldn't.  I should be able to just root them on and fantasize about B1G Titles and National Contentions.  But i remember losing 11 out of 12.  11 straight years of losing to Wisconsin, Never winning the B1G tourney.  Losing to teams we should beat easily and beating teams we have not reason to be competitive with.  The inconsistency has really taken its toll.

For that i apologize for my doubts and skepticism. I know I going to take alot of flak from IUScott who is going to tell me to not let the door hit me in the ass.  btownqb is going to tell me i am idiot for not seeing what is clearly there.  And KOB is going to give me all the facts to show me i am stupid.  Yeah i know.  I want to be the fan i 10 years ago.  I want to get upset with losses and ecstatic with win.  I want to schedule things around a game because its HUGE.  But i am not and i don't.  Its just a basketball game to me anymore and maybe that ok.

Anywho, Lets win Saturday and move forward.  Go Hoosiers.

[KoB2011]

4 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Going to be honest here. 

I don't have faith in this team or coach yet.  I know we have been playing good ball.  I know we're pretty close to a 1 loss team.  I know all this.  I see the talent.  I see how we're playing.  I watch the same games you do.  I just can't.  I can't bring myself to think we're not going to go 2-7 down this stretch and stumble into the B1G tourney and lose the first round.

I so want to believe but as soon as i come here or start to watch the game, I just assume we're going to lose somehow.  I am surprised when we win, happy, but surprised.  I guess the last 10 years or so really took a toll on my fandom.  I hope we finish strong this year, maybe that will re-lay the foundation and i can be more optimistic going forward. 

So if i sound skeptical in my post, its because i truly am.  And i know i shouldn't.  I should be able to just root them on and fantasize about B1G Titles and National Contentions.  But i remember losing 11 out of 12.  11 straight years of losing to Wisconsin, Never winning the B1G tourney.  Losing to teams we should beat easily and beating teams we have not reason to be competitive with.  The inconsistency has really taken its toll.

For that i apologize for my doubts and skepticism. I know I going to take alot of flak from IUScott who is going to tell me to not let the door hit me in the ass.  btownqb is going to tell me i am idiot for not seeing what is clearly there.  And KOB is going to give me all the facts to show me i am stupid.  Yeah i know.  I want to be the fan i 10 years ago.  I want to get upset with losses and ecstatic with win.  I want to schedule things around a game because its HUGE.  But i am not and i don't.  Its just a basketball game to me anymore and maybe that ok.

Anywho, Lets win Saturday and move forward.  Go Hoosiers.

I just appreciate being the facts guy 🤷‍♂️

[Hoosier51]

18 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Going to be honest here. 

I don't have faith in this team or coach yet.  I know we have been playing good ball.  I know we're pretty close to a 1 loss team.  I know all this.  I see the talent.  I see how we're playing.  I watch the same games you do.  I just can't.  I can't bring myself to think we're not going to go 2-7 down this stretch and stumble into the B1G tourney and lose the first round.

I so want to believe but as soon as i come here or start to watch the game, I just assume we're going to lose somehow.  I am surprised when we win, happy, but surprised.  I guess the last 10 years or so really took a toll on my fandom.  I hope we finish strong this year, maybe that will re-lay the foundation and i can be more optimistic going forward. 

So if i sound skeptical in my post, its because i truly am.  And i know i shouldn't.  I should be able to just root them on and fantasize about B1G Titles and National Contentions.  But i remember losing 11 out of 12.  11 straight years of losing to Wisconsin, Never winning the B1G tourney.  Losing to teams we should beat easily and beating teams we have not reason to be competitive with.  The inconsistency has really taken its toll.

For that i apologize for my doubts and skepticism. I know I going to take alot of flak from IUScott who is going to tell me to not let the door hit me in the ass.  btownqb is going to tell me i am idiot for not seeing what is clearly there.  And KOB is going to give me all the facts to show me i am stupid.  Yeah i know.  I want to be the fan i 10 years ago.  I want to get upset with losses and ecstatic with win.  I want to schedule things around a game because its HUGE.  But i am not and i don't.  Its just a basketball game to me anymore and maybe that ok.

Anywho, Lets win Saturday and move forward.  Go Hoosiers.

Some people are optimist, and some are pessimist so there is nothing wrong with that. 👍

[slojoe]

IMHO second half of our B1G schedule much more difficult than the first.  Hope we've improved enough to keep up.

[13th&Jackson]

2 hours ago, Hoosier51 said:

Some people are optimist, and some are pessimist so there is nothing wrong with that. 👍

Definition of an optimist is someone who's unaware of what's really happening 😀

[Hoosier51]

22 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

Definition of an optimist is someone who's unaware of what's really happening 😀

That is kind of better than a person who sees the worst aspect of everything no matter what. 😁

Edited February 1, 2022 by Hoosier51

[bluegrassIU]

3 hours ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Going to be honest here. 

I don't have faith in this team or coach yet.  I know we have been playing good ball.  I know we're pretty close to a 1 loss team.  I know all this.  I see the talent.  I see how we're playing.  I watch the same games you do.  I just can't.  I can't bring myself to think we're not going to go 2-7 down this stretch and stumble into the B1G tourney and lose the first round.

I so want to believe but as soon as i come here or start to watch the game, I just assume we're going to lose somehow.  I am surprised when we win, happy, but surprised.  I guess the last 10 years or so really took a toll on my fandom.  I hope we finish strong this year, maybe that will re-lay the foundation and i can be more optimistic going forward. 

So if i sound skeptical in my post, its because i truly am.  And i know i shouldn't.  I should be able to just root them on and fantasize about B1G Titles and National Contentions.  But i remember losing 11 out of 12.  11 straight years of losing to Wisconsin, Never winning the B1G tourney.  Losing to teams we should beat easily and beating teams we have not reason to be competitive with.  The inconsistency has really taken its toll.

For that i apologize for my doubts and skepticism. I know I going to take alot of flak from IUScott who is going to tell me to not let the door hit me in the ass.  btownqb is going to tell me i am idiot for not seeing what is clearly there.  And KOB is going to give me all the facts to show me i am stupid.  Yeah i know.  I want to be the fan i 10 years ago.  I want to get upset with losses and ecstatic with win.  I want to schedule things around a game because its HUGE.  But i am not and i don't.  Its just a basketball game to me anymore and maybe that ok.

Anywho, Lets win Saturday and move forward.  Go Hoosiers.

This would get really boring if we all viewed things the same way.

[kyhoosier29]

7 hours ago, IUFLA said:

I understand the trepidation...previous years have conditioned us all...

But Coach Woodson, despite that cool, laid back demeanor, is first and foremost a competitor...I can almost guarantee he's not saying "top half" or "top 5."

He wants to wIn, and he wants to win NOW. And he has these kids believing...

He has ME believing...we've beaten 2 of the teams ahead of us, and had a 3rd on the ropes...and we have another shot at them...at home this time...and we have the other 2 coming up soon...

No team in this league is going to win 18 league games...16 is a stretch...

So we're right there...take them one at a time as Coach Woodson says, and let's see what happens...

Oh I agree. We have competed with everybody, so there’s zero reasons to expect otherwise. Some on here act like CMW is satisfied with this or that and he knows his team is just this or that. I call crap on that. He came saying he wasn’t rebuilding. He wanted to win from the get-go. He may know we have some limitations on the floor but that doesn’t mean we can’t get around those or he is just fine settling for being 6th or 7th. And I’m thankful for that. He has high expectations, whether some fans do or not.