KoB2011 Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, Kdug said: The eye test has also been proven to be just about the worst way to rank teams in just about every sport. That’s a great way to have a committee that justifies screwing good mid-majors over for mediocre P5 teams. Yes, most folks agree on that. In our case, the metrics are anywhere from mediocre to bad, and the eye test seems to back that up. This team has work to do in the last couple months to avoid a bad season. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 10 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Scott. I hate to tell you, but if IU has to rely on the 'eye test' this season, that might even be worse than our computer rankings. I am not talking about IU just college basketball in general. Take ISU and if the finish the season 25-6 and win the regular season but lose in the tournament championship. That would have them at 27-7 going I to selection Sunday. What I have seen they would deserve an at large bid but the numbers probably wouldn't agree. They are a lot better than some muddling power 6 conference teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted December 30, 2023 Report Share Posted December 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, BGleas said: It's kind of semantics. I said "mediocre to bad", you said "our efficiency metrics are bad but our resume metrics are ok." We're kind of saying the same thing. We're not in a horrible spot right now and the real important part of the season is ahead of us, but we're not in a very good spot either. IU has a lot of work to do. Fair enough, and agreed. We’re in a weird spot we’re we’ve played a lot of really bad basketball, and are very lucky to not have lost some of those games vs bad teams. But we didn’t, so our “resume” is still in an ok spot despite having similar metrics to the 16-16 Nebraska team last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 hours ago, Kdug said: Fair enough, and agreed. We’re in a weird spot we’re we’ve played a lot of really bad basketball, and are very lucky to not have lost some of those games vs bad teams. But we didn’t, so our “resume” is still in an ok spot despite having similar metrics to the 16-16 Nebraska team last year. To be fair, KenPom projects us to finish 16-15. Last seasons Nebraska team may be a good comparison if we don’t start playing better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 29 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: To be fair, KenPom projects us to finish 16-15. Last seasons Nebraska team may be a good comparison if we don’t start playing better. Ugh. That would be 6-12 to finish the season. Ugh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Ugh. That would be 6-12 to finish the season. Ugh. Yeah that would be a bummer. Here’s to playing better so that doesn’t happen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 43 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: To be fair, KenPom projects us to finish 16-15. Last seasons Nebraska team may be a good comparison if we don’t start playing better. I don't see that at all. Our next four games aren't that daunting, at Neb. OSU, at Rutgers, Minnesota I think we go at least 3-1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 I have followed this entire thread and I respect you metrics guys. But I just can’t get this quote out of my head… ”statistics are for losers.” 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 16 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: I have followed this entire thread and I respect you metrics guys. But I just can’t get this quote out of my head… ”statistics are for losers.” I'm not even really a "metrics guy", but the reality of the situation is that these metrics are used on Selection Sunday. We can ignore them, but again the reality is that they matter. They're not the entire story but they're a big part of it, especially when it comes to being on the bubble. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 21 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: I have followed this entire thread and I respect you metrics guys. But I just can’t get this quote out of my head… ”statistics are for losers.” Wins and losses are a statistic. Points scored and points given up are statistics. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, BGleas said: I'm not even really a "metrics guy", but the reality of the situation is that these metrics are used on Selection Sunday. We can ignore them, but again the reality is that they matter. They're not the entire story but they're a big part of it, especially when it comes to being on the bubble. I get that. But if they keep winning, regardless of the metrics, how do they not make the tournament? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, BGleas said: I'm not even really a "metrics guy", but the reality of the situation is that these metrics are used on Selection Sunday. We can ignore them, but again the reality is that they matter. They're not the entire story but they're a big part of it, especially when it comes to being on the bubble. The thing I don't care for is that if we won the same games but by 20+ every game we would have better numbers with the same record 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Wins and losses are a statistic. Points scored and points given up are statistics. Yep… you are right about that. You are also smart enough to know what the quote was referring to 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, Steubenhoosier said: I get that. But if they keep winning, regardless of the metrics, how do they not make the tournament? If they start beating tournament teams and pile up wins then things probably will end up with us getting in. Right now we are 0-3 against tournament teams. The eye test, and yes, the analytics, seem to back up a team that isn’t that good. I think what is getting lose in the conversation of they just have to keep winning, is that they have to start winning. They haven’t showed they can get the type of win that is going to matter 2.5 months from now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 4 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Wins and losses are a statistic. Points scored and points given up are statistics. There is a difference between stats than made up analytics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, Steubenhoosier said: I get that. But if they keep winning, regardless of the metrics, how do they not make the tournament? Depends on what you mean by "keep winning". At least as of right now, anything less than 13 Big Ten wins and we're probably sweating on Selection Sunday. Of course you still have to play the games and anybody can win on any given day, but I wouldn't say we've looked or played like a 13-14 win Big Ten team. And even if we're in, the metrics can cost you or gain you a seed line or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, IU Scott said: The thing I don't care for is that if we won the same games but by 20+ every game we would have better numbers with the same record Correct. It would be indicative of us being a better team and we’d been projected to win more games. Of course we could still win those games anyway, but right now why would we expect to win games like Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, and even Ohio State or Nebraska? Feel free to explain that with past results, metrics, or the eye test. We all know we can play better but right now that’s the rub… we have to play better to accumulate some meaningful wins. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, IU Scott said: There is a difference between stats than made up analytics Which analytics do you think are made up? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, IU Scott said: The thing I don't care for is that if we won the same games but by 20+ every game we would have better numbers with the same record I mean yeah, that's pretty obvious. A team winning by 20 every game is probably better than a team winning by 2 points every game, especially when the team winning by 20 has some wins against some good teams. How you're playing and against who matters. It should matter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, KoB2011 said: If they start beating tournament teams and pile up wins then things probably will end up with us getting in. Right now we are 0-3 against tournament teams. The eye test, and yes, the analytics, seem to back up a team that isn’t that good. I think what is getting lose in the conversation of they just have to keep winning, is that they have to start winning. They haven’t showed they can get the type of win that is going to matter 2.5 months from now. I don’t know if we are 0-3 v tournament teams. I would argue that Kennesaw will win their conference. Probably Morehead too. We are 2-0 in conference which is a great start and provides a bit of a cushion. Yes, they need to keep winning Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: Correct. It would be indicative of us being a better team and we’d been projected to win more games. Of course we could still win those games anyway, but right now why would we expect to win games like Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, and even Ohio State or Nebraska? Feel free to explain that with past results, metrics, or the eye test. We all know we can play better but right now that’s the rub… we have to play better to accumulate some meaningful wins. Well we took the #2 team to the wire after leading the whole game. I see our offense getting better and actually looking and making 3's. Well I have seen all the other big ten teams and see a lot of heatable teams. The games are played on the court and not on stats 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted December 31, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, IU Scott said: There is a difference between stats than made up analytics 4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said: Which analytics do you think are made up? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: I don’t know if we are 0-3 v tournament teams. I would argue that Kennesaw will win their conference. Probably Morehead too. We are 2-0 in conference which is a great start and provides a bit of a cushion. Yes, they need to keep winning They could win their conference and get in, but that’s the only way those two teams get in. We are 0-3 against teams that don’t need to win their conference tournament to get in, and haven’t been particularly competitive in those games. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, IU Scott said: Well we took the #2 team to the wire after leading the whole game. I see our offense getting better and actually looking and making 3's. Well I have seen all the other big ten teams and see a lot of heatable teams. The games are played on the court and not on stats Our poor metrics are the result of how we've played on the court. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, 5fouls said: I am trying to put my kids to bed and you just made me audibly laugh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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