What The Numbers Say

[KoB2011]

13 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

• Unguarded Catch and Shoot Jump Shots - On the year, the Hoosiers are just 14/52 on unguarded jump shots. That means they are shooting 26.9% when they are wide open. This is in the 2nd percentile in all of college basketball. (That’s almost ludicrously bad, and it may actually be a perverse reason for hope if you believe Indiana can’t possibly shoot that badly across a larger sample size moving forward.)

As odd as it may be, it is why we need to shoot more. There is almost no possible way a team with this makeup is as bad at shooting as we've seen, but it is now in their head. They need to shoot freely and confidently.

They're getting almost 6 wide open catch and shoot jumpers per game, plus however many they are passing up. Shoot confidently and start hitting those and it's a game changer. Guys like Cupps, Trey, X, MM, Ware, and even Gunn, need to shoot in catch and shoot situations every single time it's there. 

[Drroogh]

Sometimes I feel like a dead horse?!

[Hoosier987]

1 hour ago, 13th&Jackson said:

• Unguarded Catch and Shoot Jump Shots - On the year, the Hoosiers are just 14/52 on unguarded jump shots. That means they are shooting 26.9% when they are wide open. This is in the 2nd percentile in all of college basketball. (That’s almost ludicrously bad, and it may actually be a perverse reason for hope if you believe Indiana can’t possibly shoot that badly across a larger sample size moving forward.)

26.9%, 2nd percentile? LOL. This is historically bad. I suppose this proves the point when another board member mentioned he didn’t think it would be possible for us to hit 3 point shots at a 35% clip in a practice unguarded. Maybe that was @5fouls or @BGleas? Anyways, you can’t win when you can’t score.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Hoosier987

[rogue3542]

Honestly, do you think it will be that bad all year? I don’t.

Again, which is why I’m not concerned about the metrics yet. Let’s get at least halfway through our conference schedule before we deem it a problem.

[5fouls]

[Steubenhoosier]

17 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Not to go unmentioned, but a player from Montana State is better 

[KoB2011]

23 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Mack is really coming on. I hope we use these next three games to start focusing more of the offense through him. I think we are playing way too much through Reneau and he just isn't producing where we need him to be. 

[BGleas]

14 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Mack is really coming on. I hope we use these next three games to start focusing more of the offense through him. I think we are playing way too much through Reneau and he just isn't producing where we need him to be. 

Not expecting it at all, but would love the see spurts tonight with a true 4-out/1-in with Mgbako getting some minutes at the 4. 

Would love to see Ware/Reneau in the paint, Mgbako picking and popping on the perimeter, etc. 

Good big in the paint, guard coming off an Mgbako ball screen with an open lane and Mgbako popping to the 3pt line. 

Again, for some stretches it would be interesting to see how that works. 

[Hoosier987]

23 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Mack is really coming on. I hope we use these next three games to start focusing more of the offense through him. I think we are playing way too much through Reneau and he just isn't producing where we need him to be. 

Agreed. I think Mack is only going to get better. Not sure where he is on our scoring option...maybe 3rd? I'd like to get him more looks and eventually be our 1st or 2nd scoring option. His defense continues to improve as well -- Woodson noted this in last nights radio show.

MM is definitely becoming a very important player for us. If he continues to develop defensively and continues to gain confidence in his shot, he has the potential to have a special conference season. Picking up his 4th foul against Kansas turned out to be a pivotal moment in the game. It seemed like Kansas knew it too. In hindsight, I don't think we lose that game if he doesn't pick up that foul and or if he stays in the game.

Edited December 19, 2023 by Hoosier987

[Hoosier987]

3 minutes ago, BGleas said:

 

Would love to see Ware/Reneau in the paint, Mgbako picking and popping on the perimeter, etc. 

Good big in the paint, guard coming off an Mgbako ball screen with an open lane and Mgbako popping to the 3pt line. 

My favorite moment of the KU game was when MM stopped and popped from 3 point line in the first half. Also if I recall, in the 2nd half, he was set a pick at the top of the key and knocked down another 3...MM's got a height advantage more often than not. He's capable of shooting over just about anyone.

[BGleas]

Just now, Hoosier987 said:

My favorite moment of the KU game was when MM stopped and popped from 3 point line in the first half. Also if I recall, in the 2nd half, he was set a pick at the top of the key and knocked down another 3...MM's got a height advantage more often than not. He's capable of shooting over just about anyone.

Loved those plays too! It was shared somewhere, but I think he's at something like 35-37%ish from 3 the last 5 or so games. 

[Hoosier987]

57 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Announcer jinx. They mentioned how he was perfect from the line...next time MM was fouled he missed his first free throw. Nonetheless, super impressive and is definitely the guy we want at the line to close out games.

[KoB2011]

10 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Not expecting it at all, but would love the see spurts tonight with a true 4-out/1-in with Mgbako getting some minutes at the 4. 

Would love to see Ware/Reneau in the paint, Mgbako picking and popping on the perimeter, etc. 

Good big in the paint, guard coming off an Mgbako ball screen with an open lane and Mgbako popping to the 3pt line. 

Again, for some stretches it would be interesting to see how that works. 

I agree. I think it's tough with X out, though.

I also think Mack and Walker at the forwards, with Reneau/Ware at the 5 brings a lot of the same things in to play. I get that  Walker isn't a good shooter but he does pull the defense out of the paint a lot more than having Reneau and Ware in together, and he is one of our best defenders. 

[5fouls]

Thought it would be interesting to compare Usage #'s between the IU and Purdue rosters.  Two teams.  Same conference.  Best player on each team plays the 5.  One of the teams is #1 in the country.  the other is still working to gain respect.

Things that stand out to me:

• Edey, their best player, has the highest usage of players in the rotation.  Ware, our best player, does not have the highest usage on the team.
• Their 2 guard, Loyer, has a higher usage than any of IU's guards, including the 3 guys that play significant minutes at PG.
• We have several bench players (Sparks, Walker, Gunn) that have higher Usage than any of the regular rotation players coming off the bench for Purdue.  This is likely a consequence of Woodson's mass substitution patterns.  Guys like Edey and Smith are still on teh floor and are still getting usage when there are bench players in the game for Purdue.  IU has 4-5 bench players on the floor at the same time. 
• Purdue has the most dominant big man in college basketball. yet maintains a good balance of usage between frontcourt and backcourt players. IU's imbalance is evident in the numbers. 

Edited December 19, 2023 by 5fouls

[Kdug]

30 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Thought it would be interesting to compare Usage #'s between the IU and Purdue rosters.  Two teams.  Same conference.  Best player on each team plays the 5.  One of the teams is #1 in the country.  the other is still working to gain respect.

Things that stand out to me:

• Edey, their best player, has the highest usage of players in the rotation.  Ware, our best player, does not have the highest usage on the team.
• Their 2 guard, Loyer, has a higher usage than any of IU's guards, including the 3 guys that play significant minutes at PG.
• We have several bench players (Sparks, Walker, Gunn) that have higher Usage than any of the regular rotation players coming off the bench for Purdue.  This is likely a consequence of Woodson's mass substitution patterns.  Guys like Edey and Smith are still on teh floor and are still getting usage when there are bench players in the game for Purdue.  IU has 4-5 bench players on the floor at the same time. 
• Purdue has the most dominant big man in college basketball. yet maintains a good balance of usage between frontcourt and backcourt players. IU's imbalance is evident in the numbers. 

There’s a pretty big difference between Ware and Edey. Ware is a very good player, but he’s not at a point where he can dominate games against good competition on a consistent basis. I think that difference leads to things being easier for PU’s guards since so much attention has to be put on Edey.

I also think the comparison between guards looks much different with XJ starting vs Cupps. I like Cupps, but he’s essentially invisible on the offensive end, and you can tell teams aren’t worried about him at all. I think he’ll get better as he gets older, but he’s much better as an energy guy off the bench this year.

[KoB2011]

1 hour ago, Kdug said:

There’s a pretty big difference between Ware and Edey. Ware is a very good player, but he’s not at a point where he can dominate games against good competition on a consistent basis. I think that difference leads to things being easier for PU’s guards since so much attention has to be put on Edey.

I also think the comparison between guards looks much different with XJ starting vs Cupps. I like Cupps, but he’s essentially invisible on the offensive end, and you can tell teams aren’t worried about him at all. I think he’ll get better as he gets older, but he’s much better as an energy guy off the bench this year.

We also play through Reneau at a more similar rate to Edey than we play through Ware. While it's true that Edey is a considerably better college player than Ware, the gap between Edey and Reneau is even bigger.

I agree XJ is a big upgrade over Cupps, but even with a healthy XJ, I don't think anyone outside of Bloomington is going to put XJ on par with Smith at this point. I have been a huge fan of X in his time at IU, but outside of a very short stretch at the end of 2022 when has he ever played at a comparable level to smith? 

[13th&Jackson]

2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Thought it would be interesting to compare Usage #'s between the IU and Purdue rosters.  Two teams.  Same conference.  Best player on each team plays the 5.  One of the teams is #1 in the country.  the other is still working to gain respect.

Things that stand out to me:

• Edey, their best player, has the highest usage of players in the rotation.  Ware, our best player, does not have the highest usage on the team.
• Their 2 guard, Loyer, has a higher usage than any of IU's guards, including the 3 guys that play significant minutes at PG.
• We have several bench players (Sparks, Walker, Gunn) that have higher Usage than any of the regular rotation players coming off the bench for Purdue.  This is likely a consequence of Woodson's mass substitution patterns.  Guys like Edey and Smith are still on teh floor and are still getting usage when there are bench players in the game for Purdue.  IU has 4-5 bench players on the floor at the same time. 
• Purdue has the most dominant big man in college basketball. yet maintains a good balance of usage between frontcourt and backcourt players. IU's imbalance is evident in the numbers. 

Sam King's a ball hog

[Purdue7]

Love to see MM at the 4 

TG pick n roll with KW 

MM roll and replace at top of the key 

TG downhill is a nightmare 

 

[Hoosier987]

Current Player ratings below. X will clearly provide a major boost when he comes back... and at this time is quite frankly a substantial upgrade over Cupps. 

[5fouls]

KenPom remains mediocre.  #87 through Kennesaw State.  13th in the Big Ten.  Ahead of only Penn State.

 

[Seeking6]

34 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

KenPom remains mediocre.  #87 through Kennesaw State.  13th in the Big Ten.  Ahead of only Penn State.

 

I think I put as much faith in KenPom as I do Yahoo's fantasy football draft grades.

[Drroogh]

41 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

KenPom remains mediocre.  #87 through Kennesaw State.  13th in the Big Ten.  Ahead of only Penn State.

 

Someone needs to let Maryland and Michigan know!

[KoB2011]

18 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I think I put as much faith in KenPom as I do Yahoo's fantasy football draft grades.

Difference of course is one of them impacts making the postseason and seeding, one doesn’t.

[Hoosier987]

3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

KenPom remains mediocre.  #87 through Kennesaw State.  13th in the Big Ten.  Ahead of only Penn State.

 

updated players stats from Barttorvik

[5fouls]

3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

KenPom remains mediocre.  #87 through Kennesaw State.  13th in the Big Ten.  Ahead of only Penn State.

 

You guys can discount this if you wish, but the fact is IU has dug a hole in the KenPom and NET ratings that will be hard to totally wash away. 

Let's assume for a minute that a Top 40 KenPom and Top 50 NET are needed to feel comfortable going into Selection Sunday with a 20-12 record.  With where IU is at now, are both of those, or even one, achievable? 

IU is in a position were a 12-8 conference record, even if it ties for 2nd, may not be enough.  13 and a game or two in the BTT, or 14 by itself should be enough, but even then, a lot depends on the strength of the bubble,

Does a 20 win IU team get in over a 24 win Indiana State team if ISU has the higher NET?