What The Numbers Say

[Drroogh]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Well, only if you consider fewest attempts and 2nd worst percentage to be an 'outlier'.  

An optimist would consider IU to be the norm and all other teams to be the 'outliers'.

I prefer opportunistic, plenty of room for improvement!🙂

[13th&Jackson]

3 hours ago, Hoosier987 said:

Speaking of 3 point shots…we are an incredibly extreme outlier

Credit to IU, I guess for self awareness. 

Man, Baylor's just about perfect. They are averaging 9-21 threes per game. Four players playing 23-28 minutes, each shooting over 40% from three. A fifth, playing 27 minutes, averaging 38%. They shoot 57% from two. 

[Hoosier987]

1 hour ago, 13th&Jackson said:

Credit to IU, I guess for self awareness. 

Man, Baylor's just about perfect. They are averaging 9-21 threes per game. Four players playing 23-28 minutes, each shooting over 40% from three. A fifth, playing 27 minutes, averaging 38%. They shoot 57% from two. 

Yup. I suppose the one positive of this graph is that we at least know we suck at shooting (looking at you Maryland)...Anyways, as I think you're aware, and many other board members have mentioned -- this isn't sustainable and unfortunately we're a 1/3 of the way into the season, so this isn't some small one-off sample...but this shouldn't come to a surprise to anyone. Everyone knew we needed perimeter/shooting help going into this season....but lets bring in more raw athletes who have difficulty making free throws let alone a shot in live action.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Hoosier987

[Seeking6]

5 hours ago, 5fouls said:

You know who isn't rebounding?  Our Guards.

Last season our top 5 guards (X, Gallo, JHS, Bates, and Gunn) averaged a combined 20.8 rebounds per 40 minutes.

This year our top 5 guards (X, Gallo, Gunn, Cupps, and Leal) are averaging only 15.9 rebounds per 40.  

Both X and Gallo are way down.  Cupps is doing OK for his size, but he's not JHS.  Gunn/Leal this year is fairly equal to Gunn/Bates last year.  

 

 

Do these stats take into consideration of minutes on court per player or it just the sum of the unit? Reason I ask is  deep down I believe Trey is just getting spent early on covering opposing teams best player while also having to assume PG roles. I'd love to keep track of how these stats play out once X gets back. Whenever that is. 

[Hoosierdave]

4 hours ago, Hoosier987 said:

Speaking of 3 point shots…we are an incredibly extreme outlier

CC’ing Coach Woodson 

[MSHoosier]

Wow, that graphic says it all. Does anybody expect this to change this year ?  next year ?

[5fouls]

46 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Do these stats take into consideration of minutes on court per player or it just the sum of the unit? Reason I ask is  deep down I believe Trey is just getting spent early on covering opposing teams best player while also having to assume PG roles. I'd love to keep track of how these stats play out once X gets back. Whenever that is. 

It's per 40 minutes.  So, whether Trey is playing the 1, the 2, the 3, the 4, or the 5, it's his number per 40 minutes.

[kyhoosier29]

2 minutes ago, MSHoosier said:

Wow, that graphic says it all. Does anybody expect this to change this year ?  next year ?

No and no…. 🤷🏻‍♂️. 

[Hoosier987]

20 minutes ago, MSHoosier said:

Wow, that graphic says it all. Does anybody expect this to change this year ?  next year ?

I thought we were going to see a more perimeter oriented offense with Woodson but it appears as though he’s doubled down on this style…if only the three point line would be discontinued!  

Edited December 12, 2023 by Hoosier987

[5fouls]

I'm going to be interested in seeing where we rank in KenPom on Non-Conference SOS when we finish up this month.  Currently sitting at 145th, which is significantly higher than we have been ranking over the last several years.  

That's something that ultimately could help us before it's all said and done.  

Edited December 12, 2023 by 5fouls

[NotIThatLives]

35 minutes ago, MSHoosier said:

Wow, that graphic says it all. Does anybody expect this to change this year ?  next year ?

I mean.  I'm no nba scout but what exactly does Mbako do that says he's near an NBA guy?  I'd gladly eat a plate of crow.  Not nearly the awareness nor the athleticism to bring the d to be a 3 and d guy.  So he should come back, run Reneau as a college 5 and MM at the 4 where he should be.  

Liam at the 3, mm 4, Malik the 5.  I mean, I watch the NBA some.  Few guys are out here acting like traditional 5s.  And half the guys playing the 5 are strong atheltic 4s.  Pacers were playing Toppin at the 5 a little last night.  6'9" 220.  Reneau  6'9" 233.  Still needs to half another off season like this past to keep working that body.  

[13th&Jackson]

7 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I mean.  I'm no nba scout but what exactly does Mbako do that says he's near an NBA guy?  I'd gladly eat a plate of crow.  Not nearly the awareness nor the athleticism to bring the d to be a 3 and d guy.  So he should come back, run Reneau as a college 5 and MM at the 4 where he should be.  

Liam at the 3, mm 4, Malik the 5.  I mean, I watch the NBA some.  Few guys are out here acting like traditional 5s.  And half the guys playing the 5 are strong atheltic 4s.  Pacers were playing Toppin at the 5 a little last night.  6'9" 220.  Reneau  6'9" 233.  Still needs to half another off season like this past to keep working that body.  

Mgbako isn’t on any mock drafts that I’ve seen

[KoB2011]

12 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I mean.  I'm no nba scout but what exactly does Mbako do that says he's near an NBA guy?  I'd gladly eat a plate of crow.  Not nearly the awareness nor the athleticism to bring the d to be a 3 and d guy.  So he should come back, run Reneau as a college 5 and MM at the 4 where he should be.  

Liam at the 3, mm 4, Malik the 5.  I mean, I watch the NBA some.  Few guys are out here acting like traditional 5s.  And half the guys playing the 5 are strong atheltic 4s.  Pacers were playing Toppin at the 5 a little last night.  6'9" 220.  Reneau  6'9" 233.  Still needs to half another off season like this past to keep working that body.  

He isn't at this point but I worry a lot about a transfer. That seems to always be a risk when a highly ranked freshman underperforms. 

[NotIThatLives]

21 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

He isn't at this point but I worry a lot about a transfer. That seems to always be a risk when a highly ranked freshman underperforms. 

I'm not too worried about that.  CMW has had his back through the downs and the downs.  He is getting minutes despite underwhelming.   My bigger concern is if him and Banks don't make a big leap forward over the next year.  

[Seeking6]

2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

It's per 40 minutes.  So, whether Trey is playing the 1, the 2, the 3, the 4, or the 5, it's his number per 40 minutes.

Does it factor in where the shots occur? I've heard how bad our interior D is so curious wouldn't it make sense there are less shots from deep and not allowing for long boards? Or is it both? Our interior D is so bad and the guards can't rebound?

[Hoosier987]

58 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

I'm not too worried about that.  CMW has had his back through the downs and the downs.  He is getting minutes despite underwhelming.   My bigger concern is if him and Banks don't make a big leap forward over the next year.  

I have much more confidence in Mgbako making bigger strides…simply put, he’s more talented. We need Banks to develop into a consistent, reliable serviceable role player…I.e., 7th man on a very good team. 

[Seeking6]

Ant Wright has been on fire today but thought this was worthy of posting. 

For future scheduling, the NET can be manipulated.. just blow out bad teams Maryland jumped 27 spots for beating Alcorn St by 40 Minnesota jumped 18 spots for beating IUPUI by 36 Oregon jumped 12 spots for beating Cal Baptist by 21 NC State beats Tenn-Martin by 14, unchanged

[Hoosier987]

54 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Ant Wright has been on fire today but thought this was worthy of posting. 

For future scheduling, the NET can be manipulated.. just blow out bad teams Maryland jumped 27 spots for beating Alcorn St by 40 Minnesota jumped 18 spots for beating IUPUI by 36 Oregon jumped 12 spots for beating Cal Baptist by 21 NC State beats Tenn-Martin by 14, unchanged

Was literally posting this lol. This should put to rest the debate people had earlier this season.  Points rewarded to @BGleas on this one.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Hoosier987

[NCHoosier32]

Just now, Hoosier987 said:

Was literally posting this lol. This should put to rest the debate people had earlier this season. 

sad thing is we don't beat teams like that by a ton.  it's been close games.  

[Hoosier987]

1 minute ago, NCHoosier32 said:

sad thing is we don't beat teams like that by a ton.  it's been close games.  

Yup. Which is why our metrics took a dive.  You can't possibly almost lose to Army and not have your numbers be negatively impacted.

[13th&Jackson]

19 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

Was literally posting this lol. This should put to rest the debate people had earlier this season.  Points rewarded to @BGleas on this one.

Bingo. It isn't specifically the point spread, but it's the efficiency numbers that result. I had posted this from a Athletic article in the NET thread:

Many coaches privately say that they instruct their teams to play hard until the end of blowouts, sometimes leaving starters in longer than necessary, to protect their efficiency numbers.

[Kdug]

Interesting article about predicting offensive and defensive 3 pt percentage from kenpom: https://kenpom.substack.com/p/lets-talk-about-miami. He’s focusing on Miami, but some of the concepts apply to IU.

Doesn’t give a lot of faith in too much of a correction in IU’s 3 point percentage on offense, but does provide some hope on defense. This quote in particular is interesting:

”In fact, at this point in the season, defensive 2-point percentage is a better predictor of future 3-point percentage than defensive 3-point percentage itself.”

IU ranks top 100 in 2 point % and bottom 100 in 3 point % on defense.

[Hoosier987]

 

[NCHoosier32]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

 

Hmm...

[13th&Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

 

• Unguarded Catch and Shoot Jump Shots - On the year, the Hoosiers are just 14/52 on unguarded jump shots. That means they are shooting 26.9% when they are wide open. This is in the 2nd percentile in all of college basketball. (That’s almost ludicrously bad, and it may actually be a perverse reason for hope if you believe Indiana can’t possibly shoot that badly across a larger sample size moving forward.)