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What The Numbers Say


5fouls

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On 11/14/2023 at 9:36 PM, 5fouls said:

Keep this in mind as I present these next numbers.  There are 362 D1 teams.

  • Indiana ranks 327th in 3-point FGS made.  Only 35 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks 356th in 3-point FG attempts.  Only 6 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks 359th in total field go attempts.  Only 3 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks 342nd in offensive rebounds per game.  Only 20 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks 322nd in total rebounds.  Only 40 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks in the bottom half in both Assists and Steals
  • Indiana ranks 357th in 3-pointers allowed per game.  Only 5 teams worse
  • Indiana ranks 359th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.  Only 3 teams worse.
  • Our opponents have the 35th best number of steals per game
  • On the positive side, we have a darn good FT defense.

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To quote Bob Seger…”I’m not a number.  Dammit, I’m a man.”

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I probably trust individual player defensive metrics the least. 

As an example, and this isn't to knock CJ Gunn, but how are steals factored in? What I mean by that is I'm guessing Gunn is getting positive metrics partly because of his steals. 

But often times steals aren't an indicator of consistently good defense. Many players with high steal numbers also gamble a lot and get burned (ie. Allen Iverson). 

If a player gambles and forces everyone one to scramble who's metrics get dinged more for being scored on? The guy that gambled or the guy that had to scramble and maybe got scored on?

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30 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

It is also influenced heavily by who is in the game for both teams. 

If TG gets screened and calls switch and nobody listens 

TG helps because somebody messed up 

Guarantee a 4th year TG knows the scouting report & defense 

He’s easily the best defensive guard on the team….probably underrated in the conference 

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43 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I probably trust individual player defensive metrics the least. 

As an example, and this isn't to knock CJ Gunn, but how are steals factored in? What I mean by that is I'm guessing Gunn is getting positive metrics partly because of his steals. 

But often times steals aren't an indicator of consistently good defense. Many players with high steal numbers also gamble a lot and get burned (ie. Allen Iverson). 

If a player gambles and forces everyone one to scramble who's metrics get dinged more for being scored on? The guy that gambled or the guy that had to scramble and maybe got scored on?

If you watch CJ on the ball, he's really good about sticking in front of his man...

I think it's the team defensive scheme he has a problem with...

38 minutes ago, Purdue7 said:

He’s easily the best defensive guard on the team

Over XJ? I'm not so sure about that... Again, on the ball I think XJ is better... Maybe Trey as far as team defense goes... 

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25 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

If you watch CJ on the ball, he's really good about sticking in front of his man...

I think it's the team defensive scheme he has a problem with...

Agree! I wasn't trying to knock Gunn or anything. Just using that as an example of why I trust individual defensive analytics the least. 

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24 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Agree! I wasn't trying to knock Gunn or anything. Just using that as an example of why I trust individual defensive analytics the least. 

I know... It's kinda the opposite of Miller Kopp...

I thought Miller was at least acceptable on the ball with the right matchup (ask Matthew Mayer 😁) but excelled at team defense... 

And to be honest, I'm not sure how you measure those either...

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52 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I know... It's kinda the opposite of Miller Kopp...

I thought Miller was at least acceptable on the ball with the right matchup (ask Matthew Mayer 😁) but excelled at team defense... 

And to be honest, I'm not sure how you measure those either...

I thought Kopp one of our best defenders last year. 

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2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

If you watch CJ on the ball, he's really good about sticking in front of his man...

I think it's the team defensive scheme he has a problem with...

Over XJ? I'm not so sure about that... Again, on the ball I think XJ is better... Maybe Trey as far as team defense goes... 

I watched TG blow up some Purdue sets with physical defense & quick hands 

XJ does a great job fighting through pick n roll & DHO 

CMW coaches a more physical approach on the perimeter than previous CAM set up 

 

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On 12/4/2023 at 9:30 PM, KoB2011 said:

They mean something. They can and will change throughout the year as sample sizes grow, but to ignore them and think we’ve had a good start to the year seems silly.

If we played the way we should have in our wins our NET and KenPom would be higher. While a correction can happen, the early numbers shows the impact our poor start has had.

If we don’t like our seed or miss the tournament, look back at November. 

Circling back to this, our OOC is putting us in a very tough position to make the tournament. The B1G isn’t good, so we will struggle to compile a tournament worthy resume with what’s left.

We can say it comes down to wins, but if your NET and other metrics is and the number of wins you need is higher. We may need something like 21-10 regular season to get in with how this is playing out. 

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20 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Circling back to this, our OOC is putting us in a very tough position to make the tournament. The B1G isn’t good, so we will struggle to compile a tournament worthy resume with what’s left.

We can say it comes down to wins, but if your NET and other metrics is and the number of wins you need is higher. We may need something like 21-10 regular season to get in with how this is playing out. 

Beat Purdue twice like we did last year and we'll have our signature wins.

29-2 going into the BTT and we'll be fine.

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19 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

NET Rankings:

Purdue #4

Indiana ST #12

Butler #60

Purdue Fort Wayne #77

Evansville #111

IU #123

In the B1G, IU is currently 12th in the NET rankings behind #115 MN and leading PSU (#143) and MD (#180). 

Still a long way to go, but geez this team has dug itself a hole. 

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5 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Still a long way to go, but geez this team has dug itself a hole. 

I've mentioned this in a couple of other threads already, but as bad as the B1G seems like it is this year as of now, I could see up beating up on the bottom of the league to finish with a winning conference record but miss out on the tournament like Clemson, NC, and I believe it was NC St in the ACC did last year.  If we get get enough wins against the top of the conference, we can probably avoid that.  A win this Saturday sure would help.  

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2 minutes ago, BGleas said:

Still a long way to go, but geez this team has dug itself a hole. 

Especially since there are only 5 B1G teams in the NET top 50. We only have a total of eight games scheduled against those teams prior to the BTT. The best chances to move the needle will be at WI, at ILL, at OSU and at PU. Of those, at OSU is probably the most winnable. 

Current potential Quad 1 home games are PU and WI. At Rutgers (#75) and at NEB (#68) are currently barely quad 1 road games. 

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35 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

NET Rankings:

Purdue #4

Indiana ST #12

Butler #60

Purdue Fort Wayne #77

Evansville #111

IU #123

In the B1G, IU is currently 12th in the NET rankings behind #115 MN and leading PSU (#143) and MD (#180). 

The ratings for many schools will self correct once conference seadon starts.  Even if IU is middle of the pack in B1G, they will finish with a higher Net than Fort Wayne or Evansville. 

Indiana State is going to need to keep a Top 25 net to be considered a legitimate at-large candidate.

Butler would likely not get an at-large with a 60 Net, but IU just might.

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8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

The ratings for many schools will self correct once conference seadon starts.  Even if IU is middle of the pack in B1G, they will finish with a higher Net than Fort Wayne or Evansville. 

Indiana State is going to need to keep a Top 25 net to be considered a legitimate at-large candidate.

Butler would likely not get an at-large with a 60 Net, but IU just might.

Huge game for ISU will be at MSU on 12/30. Even though Sparty is down, that would look really good on their resume. 

Butler gets an opportunity with Creighton (#5), UConn (#7) and Marquette (#9) all playing at Hinkle. 

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3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

The ratings for many schools will self correct once conference seadon starts.  Even if IU is middle of the pack in B1G, they will finish with a higher Net than Fort Wayne or Evansville. 

Indiana State is going to need to keep a Top 25 net to be considered a legitimate at-large candidate.

Butler would likely not get an at-large with a 60 Net, but IU just might.

Still have a mountain to climb regardless of how you want to spin it. 

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7 hours ago, 5fouls said:

The ratings for many schools will self correct once conference seadon starts.  Even if IU is middle of the pack in B1G, they will finish with a higher Net than Fort Wayne or Evansville. 

Indiana State is going to need to keep a Top 25 net to be considered a legitimate at-large candidate.

Butler would likely not get an at-large with a 60 Net, but IU just might.

How is the Big Ten going to move up collectively in the NET... by beating each other? 

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