What The Numbers Say

[Dawg Bawls]

On 11/14/2023 at 9:36 PM, 5fouls said:

Keep this in mind as I present these next numbers.  There are 362 D1 teams.

• Indiana ranks 327th in 3-point FGS made.  Only 35 teams worse
• Indiana ranks 356th in 3-point FG attempts.  Only 6 teams worse
• Indiana ranks 359th in total field go attempts.  Only 3 teams worse
• Indiana ranks 342nd in offensive rebounds per game.  Only 20 teams worse
• Indiana ranks 322nd in total rebounds.  Only 40 teams worse
• Indiana ranks in the bottom half in both Assists and Steals
• Indiana ranks 357th in 3-pointers allowed per game.  Only 5 teams worse
• Indiana ranks 359th in 3-point attempts allowed per game.  Only 3 teams worse.
• Our opponents have the 35th best number of steals per game
• On the positive side, we have a darn good FT defense.

[5fouls]

Player Efficiency Rating Leaderboard for Big Ten Conference.  Barnhizer for Northwestern is an interesting name.  Been a solid Big Ten player over his career.  Both IU and Purdue let him get out of Indiana.

 

[Purdue7]

Purdue let him get out of Tippecanoe county….

 

[rico]

On 11/18/2023 at 10:49 PM, Purdue7 said:

Purdue let him get out of Tippecanoe county….

 

Everybody wants out of Tippecanoe county.

[5fouls]

Updated Player Efficiency after UConn.  Ware's off game hurt his PER.  Reneau still looking solid.  Mgbako, for all his struggles, ranks ahead of everyone coming off the bench.

[Hoosier987]

19 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Updated Player Efficiency after UConn.  Ware's off game hurt his PER.  Reneau still looking solid.  Mgbako, for all his struggles, ranks ahead of everyone coming off the bench.

What's our 3 point defense rank and 3 point field goals rank?

[5fouls]

Rebounding has been concerning, no more so than what we saw yesterday.  When compared to last season, it's not so much the frontcourt.  Ware and Reneau are in the neighborhood of what TJD and race gave us on a per game basis last season.

The issue is with the guards.  Both XJ and Trey are below what they did last year.  And, JHS rebounded very well from the guard spot last season.  Cupps has more total rebounds than Galloway despite playing 13.5 less minutes per game. 

    

 

 

[Purdue7]

1 hour ago, rico said:

Everybody wants out of Tippecanoe county.

True….but then you realize people live in Nebraska & North Dakota 

[5fouls]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier987 said:

What's our 3 point defense rank and 3 point field goals rank?

Numbers-wise, we are in the bottom 10 in both attempts and makes on both offense and defense.  Percentage-wise, things are slightly better both offensively and defensively, but still below 300 in each (out of 362 teams).

Edited November 20, 2023 by 5fouls

[Hoosier987]

6 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Numbers-wise, we are in the bottom 10 in both attempts and makes on both offense and defense.  Percentage-wise, things are slightly better both offensively and defensively, but still below 300 in each (out of 362 teams).

Well...numbers don't lie. Figured it was bad.

[jefftheref]

On 11/18/2023 at 4:33 PM, Dawg Bawls said:

Or to put it mildly, we suck!

[5fouls]

Luckiest teams so far this season per KenPom.

[tdhoosier]

I feel like there's always going to be 1 or 2 statical categories that will haunt all programs year in and year out. Coaches can't have their 'main focus' be everything. But I'm going to go out on a limb and say one of those statistical categories can't be rebounding if you want to have above average results in a major conference. And in today's game you'll need to put up 3's. I'm not saying you have to be top 20 year in and year out, but you'll have to put up enough to can equalize your opponent, analytically speaking. Not to mention, keep them honest on defense. 

And hey, long shots lead to long rebounds, maybe you improve one while improving the other. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by tdhoosier

[kyhoosier29]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Updated Player Efficiency after UConn.  Ware's off game hurt his PER.  Reneau still looking solid.  Mgbako, for all his struggles, ranks ahead of everyone coming off the bench.

There is NO way Walker isn’t last! 😂 What the hell am I seeing!?

[5fouls]

58 minutes ago, kyhoosier29 said:

There is NO way Walker isn’t last! 😂 What the hell am I seeing!?

I think part of it is that the stat does not factor in whether a shot was a bad shot or a good shot.  it just looks at whether it was made or not.  We've seen Walker take bad shots and miss them.  We've seen Cupps take good shots and miss them.  In addition, if Cupps gets scored on while trying to play defense, but Walker gets scored on when he totally loses his man, those count the same as well.  One appears to be worse than the other, but the stat considers them to be the same.  Cupps has a higher turnover rate, which hurts him as well.  

[KoB2011]

5 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Rebounding has been concerning, no more so than what we saw yesterday.  When compared to last season, it's not so much the frontcourt.  Ware and Reneau are in the neighborhood of what TJD and race gave us on a per game basis last season.

The issue is with the guards.  Both XJ and Trey are below what they did last year.  And, JHS rebounded very well from the guard spot last season.  Cupps has more total rebounds than Galloway despite playing 13.5 less minutes per game. 

    

 

 

Hard disagree on rebounding not being a problem with the bigs. Total rebounds don't tell the story.

 

Our bigs last year did a much better job of rebounding by percentage than what they are doing this year. When you think about the competition level of an entire season as opposed to what we've played through four games, it is more jarring.

Last year we had 4 guys that played over 10 MPG grabbing over 10% of the rebounds when they were playing, this year we have one guy averaging of 10 MPG doing that. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by KoB2011

[5fouls]

40 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Hard disagree on rebounding not being a problem with the bigs. Total rebounds don't tell the story.

 

Our bigs last year did a much better job of rebounding by percentage than what they are doing this year. When you think about the competition level of an entire season as opposed to what we've played through four games, it is more jarring.

Last year we had 4 guys that played over 10 MPG grabbing over 10% of the rebounds when they were playing, this year we have one guy averaging of 10 MPG doing that. 

There is a serious flaw in that stat you highlighted, which is defined as "An Estimate of the percentage of rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor".  

Based on the totals for last year, IU, as a team grabbed 127.6% of the AVAILABLE rebounds.  While impressive, that is also a statistical impossibility.  It says if there were 100 rebounds available, IU grabbed 127 of them.  And, by association, our opponents must have grabbed negative 27 (-27).

Even for this year's team, which is getting outrebounded by it's opponents, the stat has them grabbing 83.5% of the available rebounds.  So, for every 100 available rebounds, IU is getting 83 of them, leaving 17 for our opponents 17, yet we're getting outrebounded on the year?  

Now that we know the stat is flawed, we can still do a year by year comparison of individual players.  Both X and Galloway were much more proficient getting rebounds last season than through the first 4 games this year.   

 

Edited November 20, 2023 by 5fouls

[KoB2011]

10 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

There is a serious flaw in that stat you highlighted, which is defined as "An Estimate of the percentage of rebounds a player grabbed while they were on the floor".  

Based on the totals for last year, IU, as a team grabbed 127.6% of the AVAILABLE rebounds.  While impressive, that is also a statistical impossibility.  It says if there were 100 rebounds available, IU grabbed 127 of them.  And, by association, our opponents must have grabbed negative 27 (-27).

Even for this year's team, which is getting outrebounded by it's opponents, the stat has them grabbing 83.5% of the available rebounds.  So, for every 100 available rebounds, IU is getting 83 of them, leaving 17 for our opponents 17, yet we're getting outrebounded on the year?  

Now that we know the stat is flawed, we can still do a year by year comparison of individual players.  Both X and Galloway were much more proficient getting rebounds last season than through the first 4 games this year.   

 

That isn't what that stat reads or how it adds up - you're misunderstanding what it is.

It is saying TJD grabbed 18 out of every 100 available rebounds when he was playing; if our best rebounded grabbed 18 out of 100, how do you figure 4 other guys added up to 127? 

[KoB2011]

@5fouls - think of it like usage. That adds up to well over 100% too and it is a similar concept, except it is rebounds. 

[5fouls]

12 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

That isn't what that stat reads or how it adds up - you're misunderstanding what it is.

It is saying TJD grabbed 18 out of every 100 available rebounds when he was playing; if our best rebounded grabbed 18 out of 100, how do you figure 4 other guys added up to 127? 

 

3 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

@5fouls - think of it like usage. That adds up to well over 100% too and it is a similar concept, except it is rebounds. 

If you hover over the column, what I wrote in my post is exactly what it says.  And, I agree it does not make sense.  But if the words are taken literally, it mean IU grabbed 127 out of 100 possible rebounds.  Regardless, this year's team is much less proficient rebounding the ball and I think we all can agree to that.  Where we may differ is that I think the backcourt is the main culprit, where you believe it to be the frontcourt.  The reality i they both are worse than last season.  I just see the backcourt as being more guilty, possibly because we have actual comparative players in X and Galloway.

 I do think Usage can add up to 100%.  I may be wrong, but a player gets Usage points for not only shooting/scoring, but for assisting or setting up the shot in some way.  

[KoB2011]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

 

If you hover over the column, what I wrote in my post is exactly what it says.  And, I agree it does not make sense.  But if the words are taken literally, it mean IU grabbed 127 out of 100 possible rebounds.  Regardless, this year's team is much less proficient rebounding the ball and I think we all can agree to that.  Where we may differ is that I think the backcourt is the main culprit, where you believe it to be the frontcourt.  The reality i they both are worse than last season.  I just see the backcourt as being more guilty, possibly because we have actual comparative players in X and Galloway.

 I do think Usage can add up to 100%.  I may be wrong, but a player gets Usage points for not only shooting/scoring, but for assisting or setting up the shot in some way.  

It does say exactly what you said, but it doesn't mean what you said it means. There are only 5 guys on the court at a time, they don't all play equal minutes.

A walk-on could play 20 seconds all year, grab a rebound on the only missed shot, and his rebound percentage would be 100%. It is a measure of what percentage of rebounds a guy grabs when they are on the court. The words in the description are to be taken literally, they just literally don't mean what you are saying they mean because  of that tricky "while they are on the floor" line. Our entire roster isn't on the floor at a given time, but perhaps if they could be that would fix both our rebounding and our perimeter defense. 

Reneau is grabbing less than 10% of the available rebounds when he is on the floor. Last year he grabbed nearly 5% more rebounds and Race grabbed 3% more rebounds than Malik is getting this year. TJD grabbed a higher percentage of rebounds than Ware. This isn't even controlling for the easier competition we've faced this season vs the total season last year. 

To your point about the guards, I agree they're also doing a putrid job and have a similar percentage drop off from our guards last season. We are a bad rebounding team, not bad rebounding guards. 

EDIT: A teams usage adds up to significantly higher than 100%. For example, this year our usage adds up to 190% so far and that isn't because we are getting an assist on nearly every field goal attempt. 

Edited November 20, 2023 by KoB2011

[5fouls]

Yesterday's win did not move the needle on Kenpom.  If anything, the fact our overall shooting percentage was lower than it has been may have hurt our offensive efficiency.  In my opinion, if there is not improvement in our 3-point shooting, our offensive efficiency, and by association, our KenPom rating will be negatively affected all year.  

 

[5fouls]

On 11/20/2023 at 8:50 AM, 5fouls said:

Updated Player Efficiency after UConn.  Ware's off game hurt his PER.  Reneau still looking solid.  Mgbako, for all his struggles, ranks ahead of everyone coming off the bench.

Thought it would be interesting to see the impacts on PER of yesterday' game.  I've quoted where the team was at after UConn and posted below what it looks like after Louisville.  Some things that stand out:

• Significant improvement from Banks, Sparks, and to a lesser degree Walker.  It can't be understated how good Banks was yesterday.
• I think Ware and Reneau have probably settled into the general area they will hang out in this season.  Could also possibly say the same for XJ.
• I'm most concerned about Galloway.  He just doesn't seem to be contributing the 'little' things he is know for like he has in the past.

 

 

Edited November 21, 2023 by 5fouls

[5fouls]

A familiar name on the national scoring leader board.

[5fouls]

Who, on the team, is looking to score?  Who should look more aggressively to get a shot up?

Field Goal Attempts per 40 minutes.