How do we catch the offense up to the defense?

[JWoolsey]

I've been doing a lot of thinking lately thanks to the feedback and suggestions from some of you guys. @Bobhad me questioning some of the things that I thought I was sure of and @Billingsley99reminded me that I don't put enough effort / thought on the defense. I paid for the subscription to kenpom and I have been fooling around with data that I've never used before and there's definitely some interesting stuff in there. The thing that's really stood out to me is just how close our Defense is to the standards required to win a title. That's a pretty crazy tool that we have in the bag just sitting there while we question weather or not Archie is on the hot seat. As always, take it or leave it with the analytics. These posts don't necessarily reflect my views and sometimes they're just thought experiments for the fun of it. 

So the defense is the easy one. I think it's fair to say that as of now if you have a top 15 defense then you can compete for winning the title. Archie's teams have hit 15, 30, 32, and 34 so it's getting close. We landed at 32 last year. I'm not going to dig deep into that right now though.

Let's get some opinion out of the way first. I knew archie was a good coach but I didn't know his systems very well. I did the research and it was depressing because his style goes against everything that I value and enjoy watching. The data suggested that he might run into some issues for us and personally I was prepared and also anticipating that to happen. It did happen and I'm glad that it did. He'll either double down on what he was doing and succeed his way / get fired, it'll be par for the course and we'll be a little bit better, or he'll adjust and we'll be a much better program. I'm confident that he'll adapt and learn.

The data has been extremely rough in many ways and yet we've still managed to put up mildly decent seasons. This is great news! Buy low / Sell high type of thing. The data on the system is faulty as hell if you ask me but that's only part of the reason why I'm optimistic moving forward...the data on a few of our players indicates that a serious jump is likely to occur and if you couple that with some potential adjustments to some gameplay changes then you could easily get the type of boost that we had in 2012 where we came in unranked and jumped all the way up to 7th. I'm not at all saying that's going to happen but I've got a strong vibe about next season.  

We know what type of team we are on the defensive end but who are we on the offensive end? We've been a lot better than I gave us credit for but we're still very flawed. I ran some data on two different sets. The first is Archie's last four years at Dayton and the other set is our two years under him. I ignored the first two years at dayton. You guys probably won't want to hear this but the numbers are already much closer than many might have expected which indicates that we're pretty close to establishing what the system is. Yes, the personnel and culture is missing among other things but still...this is how he plays.

In a generic since we're an inside out team that doesn't shoot many 3's and tries to make getting to the line a big priority. We play a system with a point distribution of 26% from 3, 56% from 2, and 19% from the line. Archie's last 4 seasons averaged 29%, 49% and 21%. The 25% from 3 is on the far end of the scale and that's incorporated by coaches like Cal, Cronin, Barnes, and Roy. Obviously that system wins big but for that to work as well as it possibly can then you'll need elite talent / elite athletes like UK or have great talent / great athletes that play at a crazy tempo who rebound at crazy rates.

I think if we played a style more similar to UVA than UT then we could see big improvements quickly. They played a 36 / 48 / 16 style which was a massive jump up for Tony Bennett in utilizing the 3 ball. They used to play in the lower 30's and 20's.

We player a slower tempo which is fine. Archie's offense has always been efficient and it ranks in the 70's. That's solid but not great. There's three significant areas that stand out for improvement. 1) His teams always rebound offensively poorly (no long shots, no long rebounds, no wide open looks). 2) His teams always rank terribly at the FT line. 3) His teams turn in the ball over year in and year out. The average rank at dayton was 133rd.

I suspect that is just naturally part of the system because the team turns down open looks trying to get the ball inside for a wide open shot at the rim and because his teams attack the basket which result in charges and errant passes more frequently.

The assist rates, the effective FG rates, and the free throw rates average out in the 60's which is pretty good and helps get that offensive ranking. 

I've been trying to figure out for two years how Archie has managed to do as well as he did running a system like the one that we're running now and an advanced stat showed a big reason why. His teams ranked 4th, 10, and 75th at free throw rates. I'm not sure if that translates as well in this league. I suspect not.

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I'm not at all saying that what Archie doing is definitely wrong or that what I'm saying is definitely right. Offensive Ranks of 82, 82, 53, 146, 75, and 37 are clear indicators that things could be adjusted. I think we start off by fixing the ratio of scoring distribution. I think 30% from 3 and 50% from two should be the minimum benchmark and we should shoot for 32-34. You can win playing a 25% style but I'll give you three coaches....Cal, Roy, and Mick Cronin. They all play that way and Mick Can't find his way out of the second round and Barnes always gets upset. I think it's smarter to play a more balanced game. 

I also think you need a gimmick to give yourself the best shot at winning and we don't have one. We just do it all kind of well. Nova with all the 3's, UNC with the rebounding and tempo, UVA has the slowest pace in the nation, louisville had the press and defense. What you're doing here is effectively giving yourself a chance to press whatever unique thing that you do well as far as it can go which is key to winning a tournament. Duke and UK have the best class every season for their gimmick. 

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What are we trying to do here and what's the game plan? 

Doubling down and continuing the course isn't awful. I think there are better ways to do things rather than staying on course and blaming it on shooting, culture, and personnel. 

Could be a whole lot of something here and could be a whole lot of nothing but either way I'm loving the situation we're in and the opportunity we have. 

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I can't wait to see how he plays it next season. It's going to be a lot of fun. 

 

Edit: A little rough on the edges and there's so many other things to look into that I'm not typing up but the whole premise of the post is that our defense is top 30 and the offense under his systems is around the 80's. I think he could be really close to making some big leaps if some changes are made and the post is bringing up a few of those possibilities. 

[JWoolsey]

We'll see how much time and energy I have into writing it up but there's specific reasons why things are jumping out and looking good to me going into next season. I'll have to do some research on Jerome and Trayce to get a better feel or that and to see if that changes anything. It could be fun and it might bring some optimism to some of you guys. 

 

 

[tdhoosier]

I’m not sure I completely mind the point distribution as long as we don’t commit  turn overs and make free throws. Where do Cal, Barnes, Roy, etc rank in turnovers?

i know this season adds up to a bunch of ‘what if’s’, but if we were a top 50 team in FT% and TOs I believe we would’ve had 4 or 5 more wins. 

[IU Scott]

I don't think his offense is that bad because I thought it got a lot of open looks but we just could not make the shots.

[hoosier_exotics]

We didnt have all those quad 1 wins because our offense sucks.  Streaky shooting killed us

[tdhoosier]

14 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I don't think his offense is that bad because I thought it got a lot of open looks but we just could not make the shots.

But...were we left open on purpose? Haha 

Justin Smith had a ton of open looks. 

[rico]

Missed perimeter shots and brick laying at the line.  Oh, and guarding the three on the defensive end.  Solve those issues and we win.

[FKIM01]

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

But...were we left open on purpose? Haha 

Justin Smith had a ton of open looks. 

If you spend time burrowing into the stats like @JWoolsey, there are some bizarre numbers like Devonte Green shooting 41% from 3 and 39% from 2.  I don't think I've ever been more perplexed by a season than the one that just concluded.  The encouraging thing is that there are so many negative factors that are easily reversed with a little luck, such as injuries.  Someone referenced the KenPom "luck" factor and if I recall correctly, IU was near the bottom in D1.  Neither good luck nor bad luck persists forever, so hope springs eternal...go Hoosiers!

[Steubenhoosier]

There is no way to measure this, but I think these numbers have been significantly skewed by injuries—

- 3 point numbers were affected by Romeo and Al having hand injuries 

- The 2 point numbers affected by Davis’ inability to elevate. He had many opportunities around the rim that were blocked because he couldn’t dunk.

- Harder to evaluate, but there had to be some impact on offensive performance because of the injuries to Zach and Race. Less available players = more minutes for those who can play = tired legs = poor shooting = inefficiency on offense 

I would view this year as an anomaly  from your statistics due to unforeseen circumstances- namely, injuries. I don’t know how you can view this past year any other way 

[Fiveoutofsix]

Appreciate that data and the thinking.  Bottom line shots that are open within the offense have to be made.  Both TT and UVA made shots.  We need the kid that yoh know it is going in when trying to break through or stop momentum.

[KoB2011]

I don't find this to be an unfair post and perspective, but I'll also add that I think this season wasn't as bad as we make it out to be. If we have a healthy Romeo, a healthy Hunter, a healthy Phinisee and a healthy McRoberts I saw enough to make me think this team could have made a good tournament run and won 25 games. 

I love analytics, I work for a big data company and sell it every day, but they have their limitations. I'm not sure we're ever going to see us rank number 1 in KenPom under Archie, but I do think we can win titles with him. 

[JWoolsey]

I appreciate the responses and you guys putting the time to read what wrote. @KoB2011is right and they do have their limitations. This is all just a game to me. My group of friends grew up together from K through college and we all played sports and based out friendship around competition so it's always been a battle to sort of 'know more' than they do. Silly stuff but it's part of where the absolute opinions are coming from. Come to a conclusion and then wait to find out if those were correct. If not, readjust. Kinda fun, kinda silly but at this point it's really just a game with myself.

@tdhoosier

Archie always turns it over 18-21% of the time minus one season where they ranked 60th which was by far an outlier. Rick Barnes has had some ups and downs but his teams generally do a very good job of not turning the ball over. Not elite, elite but in the 30-60th ranking mostly. Roy is similar and his teams do a very good but not elite job at turning the ball over. Ranked a little higher the past two seasons in the 60 and 80 range. Ranked 39th when they won. Cal's teams are all over the map like you would expect. It mostly alternates from the 150-165 range which is similar to where Archie is to a few years around 20-35. Cronin generally does a very consistent job and is somewhere between 20th - 70's.

The Free Throw % has always been one of the worst in the country under Archie. 328, 331, 215, 293, 208, 247, 103, and 2. It's something that's been puzzling me for two years now. What always puzzles me is how nearly everyone's shooting regressed in year 1 and in year 2 almost everyone performed under expectation of what you would think they should shoot. 

So were defend for 18.3 seconds per possession which is one of the highest rates in the country similarly to Virginia like you would expect in the pack line. My initial thinking was that it was fatigue and hard work causes the increased misses but Virginia doesn't seem to have any problem making 3's or FT's. 

@IU Scottthe offense isn't as bad as I initially made it out to be but I think it's a far less than optimal way to run the offense. We actually defended the 3 a lot better this season than we did last. Last we were one of the worst in the country and this season we were 98th.

@FKIM01We ranked 260th in luck rating and definitely deserved to make the tournament. The injuries were part of the reason why I'm optimistic, the injuries were another reason, and there's quite a few more than I'll save for a different post if I can get around to it. The two pt % is close to what you should expect from Devonte. Especially since he has no floater or midrange game and he took way more 2's then he ever would under crean. There's a boost + for Devonte btw, he had almost no midrange game last season so he should pick up some equity there. In fact it's small wins like that which add up in a big way. 

 

[JWoolsey]

2 hours ago, Steubenhoosier said:

There is no way to measure this, but I think these numbers have been significantly skewed by injuries—

- 3 point numbers were affected by Romeo and Al having hand injuries 

- The 2 point numbers affected by Davis’ inability to elevate. He had many opportunities around the rim that were blocked because he couldn’t dunk.

- Harder to evaluate, but there had to be some impact on offensive performance because of the injuries to Zach and Race. Less available players = more minutes for those who can play = tired legs = poor shooting = inefficiency on offense 

I would view this year as an anomaly  from your statistics due to unforeseen circumstances- namely, injuries. I don’t know how you can view this past year any other way 

Thanks for the response and I'm glad that you brought that up. I tried to make it a point to reference Dayton's past so that we could look past this season a little bit. To touch on a few of the things you said...I have contemplated some of the things you said and they play a part in yet another reason for why I'm optimistic about next season. There's quiiiittte a few different things that's already sprung to mind on top of the ones you brought up to help get me to the conclusion I have at the moment.

I really like what you you brought up regarding the injuries to Zach and Race. You're right about that.

I tried to make one of my main points of issue the points distribution and Archie does have a Season at 32, 46, and 22 which is pretty damn close to what I'm looking for use to shoot for. He absolutely loves that FT scoring but I think it's causing more problems than it does good trying to make that happen. I'm not set in stone on that but I'm fairly sure it's taking good looks away from shooters which compounds things. We also stink at the line which is another issue....

 

The issues that I'm really looking to bring up with you guys is the TO rates, FT problems, and to a degree the lack of rebounds on the offensive end. TO's were supposed to be what Archie excelled in and has been trying to avoid but his teams always do it. 

 

 

[JWoolsey]

The second number is the national rank. We’re shootings for the low 50s if we can get there for offense. I reckon 30-40 spots up has to translate to at least 4 more wins....

TOs and Rebounds should cover a big chunk of that.

[JWoolsey]

8 hours ago, tdhoosier said:

I’m not sure I completely mind the point distribution as long as we don’t commit  turn overs and make free throws. Where do Cal, Barnes, Roy, etc rank in turnovers?

i know this season adds up to a bunch of ‘what if’s’, but if we were a top 50 team in FT% and TOs I believe we would’ve had 4 or 5 more wins. 

I've always had fun taking shots at Few, Izzo, Bennett , Ryan, and Barnes/Cronin types for being frauds because those teams always but up pretty looking numbers but they always lose in the end because the winners almost always have a special ingredient on top of the good numbers (Nova 3's, UNC tempo + rebounding, UVA tempo + 3 point shooting, duke + uk insane talent). Look at the runner ups...Zaga, Texas Tech, Butler, Wisconsin, Butler, Michigan State. 

I completely forgot about one of the biggest reasons why I'm so adamant against the 25% from 3 style...it cost Gonzaga the title game vs UNC when they were the 'favorites'. They shot 38% from three on the season but rarely shot it....during that final game they shot 12-40 from two and 8-19 from three (42%) and lost the game by 6.

Playing inside out like that leaves room for you to get stymied in the tournament and you'll run into 3 or 4 teams that can do that...that's why I clown the Barnes and Cronin types. I guess we can cross that bridge when we get to it but it still feels like a mistake that should be adjusted.

 

 

 

 

[MSHoosier]

Agree with the inside out being  fools gold. Someone above pointed out, even Bennett adapted and used the 3.  Duke, despite so many advantages, couldn't shoot 3s or free throws.  You can win a lot of games in the regular season,  but to win a championship you have to be able to shoot.  And I would  go further and say shooting must be the focus offensively,  especially if you  want to get the free throw line. I have been critical of Virginia, and they proved me wrong. However,   my gut tells me Virginia's style is not sustainable, they had three games in the tournament they should have lost, and i believe you have to get some fast break points or early offense out of your defense.

[Billingsley99]

First, thank you for all the great info. I like numbers but my mind works differently and I appreciate someone with a talent like yours. 

2 major areas of concern for me that I think would make our offense so much better. We have to get transition points and points on out of bound plays.

Scoring early in the possession in our half court offense. I hope the days of jacking up those desperation shots as the shot click winds down are behind ys.

I believe that within the 20 to 25 seconds of a possession the offense dictates what happens and the defense is reactionary  in the last 10 seconds or so the defense dictated and forces the offense to react. I am so confused on why we would continue to give away that huge advantage. 

In a good offensive system the defense is always wrong until the final seconds of a possession 

[Hoosierinbham]

Great info. So during Archie's years at Dayton, his teams averaged a national ranking of 92.5 on 3 point %.  His two years at IU average 309 (31.7%). Assuming 92.5 is at least more representative of what his team's shooting will look like, we could expect around 37% from three.  Free throw shooting was also significantly better on average with his Dayton teams.

There are some assumptions and projecting of future events in the above paragraph, but historically Archie's teams shoot much better. Archie now has access to the elite Indiana high school shooters from whom to recruit.  Finding shooters that also fit his defensive profile should be more feasible in Hoosierland.