2023 NFL Discussion

[IU Scott]

12 minutes ago, btownqb said:

 

The only thing is they got worse in the only catagory that matters W/L

[btownqb]

Just now, IU Scott said:

The only thing is they got worse in the only catagory that matters W/L

Scott, we replaced our QB, LT, and TWO DEs. 

Now, our 2020 schedule is regarded as the weakest schedule in the league.. this year, not the case, or even close. Actually, our first 5 games this season were against 5 teams that won 10 or more games in 2020... thats only happened like 3 or 4 other times. 

Next, we played 17 games in 2021 and 16 in 2020, right? Guess who we got with that 17th game? Tampa Bay. They were the "added" game. Never before did you play one random team from the opposite conference, that wasn't already in the crossover division from the other conference that you're assigned. 

And finally, in what world would ANYONE say we were better last year than this year? 😳😳... just watch the games, it's evident. 

We improved considerably from 2019 to 2020 and we did it again from last year to this year. 

[btownqb]

The idea is to set yourself up for sustained success. The Colts are doing that in bunches. 

Flat out the Colts overachieved last year. This is our true self, for the time being, I hope. 

Division crown should be considered an absolute must, next year. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by btownqb

[IU Scott]

28 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Scott, we replaced our QB, LT, and TWO DEs. 

Now, our 2020 schedule is regarded as the weakest schedule in the league.. this year, not the case, or even close. Actually, our first 5 games this season were against 5 teams that won 10 or more games in 2020... thats only happened like 3 or 4 other times. 

Next, we played 17 games in 2021 and 16 in 2020, right? Guess who we got with that 17th game? Tampa Bay. They were the "added" game. Never before did you play one random team from the opposite conference, that wasn't already in the crossover division from the other conference that you're assigned. 

And finally, in what world would ANYONE say we were better last year than this year? 😳😳... just watch the games, it's evident. 

We improved considerably from 2019 to 2020 and we did it again from last year to this year. 

Was pretty much just making fun of this guy since I have no idea what those stats are

 

[btownqb]

1 minute ago, IU Scott said:

Was pretty much just making fun of this guy since I have no idea what those stats are

 

Defensive value over average. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Scott, you'd love this stuff if you gave it a chance.

Yes, I agree, I think the Colts should have been 11-6 this year.. no doubt. Can't lose Oakland, Rams, TEN, and TB allllll at home. I understand losing Seattle first game, whatever. Ravens on the road, K issues and DB injuries. But, I mean Divisional champ from year prior on the road 🤷‍♂️. So, yes, should have been 11-6 (maybe at least). 

But you have to at least say, we shouldn't have been 11-5 last year.. no business beating GB and @TEN. We beat no other good teams. Next best win was like Minnesota at home. 

All I'm saying. Last year we had much more "luck". That schedule was poop. 

 

[FritzIam4IU]

2 hours ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

There’s a rumor that Jim Harbaugh may reappear in the NFL 

Yep...Some smoke around Raiders or Bears...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/04/report-jim-harbaugh-might-be-tempted-to-leave-michigan-for-nfl/

[btownqb]

All advanced metrics do is use what your eyes are already telling you.. and keeping track of it. That's it. 

Not all three yard runs are the same. 

[IU Scott]

2 minutes ago, btownqb said:

Defensive value over average. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods

Scott, you'd love this stuff if you gave it a chance.

Yes, I agree, I think the Colts should have been 11-6 this year.. no doubt. Can't lose Oakland, Rams, TEN, and TB allllll at home. I understand losing Seattle first game, whatever. Ravens on the road, K issues and DB injuries. But, I mean Divisional champ from year prior on the road 🤷‍♂️. So, yes, should have been 11-6 (maybe at least). 

But you have to at least say, we shouldn't have been 11-5 last year.. no business beating GB and @TEN. We beat no other good teams. Next best win was like Minnesota at home. 

All I'm saying. Last year we had much more "luck". That schedule was poop. 

 

I am just a basic stat guy that all I care about is PPG on offense and defense and W/L.  I know we are better this year but just saying it with these new analytics just rubs me the wrong way 

[btownqb]

Just now, IU Scott said:

I am just a basic stat guy that all I care about is PPG on offense and defense and W/L.  I know we are better this year but just saying it with these new analytics just rubs me the wrong way 

This is going to be a very long response.. no problem if you want to tell me "whatever" lol (for real) but maybe you can see my perspective, some... 

Advancing the game of football is a good thing. If not, we'd still be running the Power T. 

But, the great part about football (or any sport), there are STILL power T concepts that are used in the game today, we've just added a WHOLE lot more and a better athlete. Pre snap reads, thousands of route combos, audibles, RPOs, etc. There's 40 different offenses you can run out of the Gun, alone. 

In basketball, a good PnR is always useful, but we have added a ton of variations to it, plus we've added a more talented offensively player, on the perimeter catching that pass, generally speaking. That's just a very quick example. 

And I know you think the kids aren't as skilled now, as then, but I'm 31(turned it last week), I'm in darn good shape and played in a very successful program in HS (both sports), I flat out cannot hold a candle to the kids coming through.. neither athletically and skilled wise Not even in the same realm skill wise. And not just at my school. 

Growing the game is a GOOD thing, mostly. There are some minor things we will always miss, some for the good, some for the bad. Embrace it just a little bit more.. heck, you might even enjoy it. 

[rico]

Do the Browns move on from Baker?

[btownqb]

 

And he's 90-45 @ Michigan. 

[Seeking6]

We all expect the Colts to win Sunday but here's a quirk. If they don't the Chargers and Raiders could both make playoffs if they kneeled the entire game and ended up 0-0 tie. Haha. 

[Seeking6]

3 hours ago, rico said:

Do the Browns move on from Baker?

He's in that category of you haven't shown us enough to make you our franchise qb but you've also shown glimpses when healthy you are. Of course I don't watch enough Browns games to know what their staff is like.

Look at Wentz. Philly let him go...but a good staff/line and I think the Colts can roll with him for the future with no problems. 

 

[rico]

10 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

He's in that category of you haven't shown us enough to make you our franchise qb but you've also shown glimpses when healthy you are. Of course I don't watch enough Browns games to know what their staff is like.

Look at Wentz. Philly let him go...but a good staff/line and I think the Colts can roll with him for the future with no problems. 

 

Philly's and Cleveland's situations are different.  The Eagles won a Super Bowl and now the Browns are trying to get to one.  

[BobSaccamanno]

12 hours ago, FritzIam4IU said:

Yep...Some smoke around Raiders or Bears...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2022/01/04/report-jim-harbaugh-might-be-tempted-to-leave-michigan-for-nfl/

Both teams make sense.  If I am the Bear's FO, though, I would throw the bank at Pat Fitzgerald.  Northwestern has a nice little program but it's basically capped.  He can keep banging his head against the wall there or stay in his hometown and go to the big boy league.

[btownqb]

31 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

He's in that category of you haven't shown us enough to make you our franchise qb but you've also shown glimpses when healthy you are. Of course I don't watch enough Browns games to know what their staff is like.

Look at Wentz. Philly let him go...but a good staff/line and I think the Colts can roll with him for the future with no problems. 

 

If you're going to pay Chubb, Garrett, that OL, and a couple more defensive players... maybe going with Baker at a cheaper price at QB is the route? I really don't know. 

I have buddies that every time Wentz doesn't play well, "oh god, I'm glad we're spending 30m on a QB that sucks" blah blah. 30m is the 9th paid QB salary in the league, and basically, Wentz has performed at basically that level all year long. So, whatever Baker's value is, I would offer that and if he doesn't like it, I would move on. 

Also... how in the world does Jimmy G make 28million a year!?! There are sooo many QBs on rookie contracts right now- Murray, Burrow, Herbert, Fields, Wilson, Lawrence, Jones, Baker, Tua, Darnold, Lamar, Hurts. 1/3 of the league's QB are on rookie contracts. 

[Steubenhoosier]

22 hours ago, btownqb said:

QB play and criticism of it just wears me out. 

For example: I've had multiple people tell me how absolutely pathetic Carson was on Sunday, and ok, he obviously wasn't good. But... look at some of these numbers

Player A- 13/18 120 yards 1TD W

Player B- 17/26 214 yards OTDs W 

Player C- 24/46 123 yards 1TD 1INT W

Wentz- 17/28 148 yards 1TD 

 

How are Carson's #s THAT much different and those teams found a way to win? Why couldn't we? Now, our D has given up two game winning drives at home, to lose a game. I love our defense, they weren't perfect Sunday, no one was. I just get fed up with people not understanding the way the Colts are built, everything has to function together, no one part can be "weak". The only facet of the game that we "won" on Sunday was the turnover battle, literally that's it. 

I think coming into the season if someone would have said through 16 games Carson Wentz was going to play 99% of the snaps, be 26/6 TD/INT ratio, and his QBR be in the top 10. I think any fan should be more than pleased with that. 

 

 

I have followed your line of thinking and it took me a bit of thought myself to come up with a response. I understand what the stats show, that he is a top 10 quarterback. I think the Raiders game is an example of how relying on statistics can be misleading. 

For much of the game, Wentz was ineffective to bad. A big part of his stats were derived from the end of the half drive where the Raiders defense inexplicably played soft coverage. Another big chunk of his stats came on the gift touchdown to Hilton, that except for a great play by the other Colts' receiver, should have been an interception. It was a poorly thrown pass into double coverage. 

More than any stats, what concerns me about Wentz is that I have yet to see him pull out a game we are losing with a last quarter drive. Maybe the Cardinals game...maybe. From what I have seen thus far, we either get out to big leads early and then hold on for the win, or fall behind and don't catch up. I have yet to see anything from Wentz to show me he is capable of making big plays down the stretch that can turn a lost game into a fourth quarter victory.  

Stats are meaningful to a point. Making winning plays at crunch time is more important, imo. I am just not sure that Wentz is yet the guy who we could count on to drive 80 yards with two minutes left to win a game.

[rico]

33 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said:

I have followed your line of thinking and it took me a bit of thought myself to come up with a response. I understand what the stats show, that he is a top 10 quarterback. I think the Raiders game is an example of how relying on statistics can be misleading. 

For much of the game, Wentz was ineffective to bad. A big part of his stats were derived from the end of the half drive where the Raiders defense inexplicably played soft coverage. Another big chunk of his stats came on the gift touchdown to Hilton, that except for a great play by the other Colts' receiver, should have been an interception. It was a poorly thrown pass into double coverage. 

More than any stats, what concerns me about Wentz is that I have yet to see him pull out a game we are losing with a last quarter drive. Maybe the Cardinals game...maybe. From what I have seen thus far, we either get out to big leads early and then hold on for the win, or fall behind and don't catch up. I have yet to see anything from Wentz to show me he is capable of making big plays down the stretch that can turn a lost game into a fourth quarter victory.  

Stats are meaningful to a point. Making winning plays at crunch time is more important, imo. I am just not sure that Wentz is yet the guy who we could count on to drive 80 yards with two minutes left to win a game.

Good post Steuby. 👍

[btownqb]

57 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said:

I have followed your line of thinking and it took me a bit of thought myself to come up with a response. I understand what the stats show, that he is a top 10 quarterback. I think the Raiders game is an example of how relying on statistics can be misleading. 

For much of the game, Wentz was ineffective to bad. A big part of his stats were derived from the end of the half drive where the Raiders defense inexplicably played soft coverage. Another big chunk of his stats came on the gift touchdown to Hilton, that except for a great play by the other Colts' receiver, should have been an interception. It was a poorly thrown pass into double coverage. 

More than any stats, what concerns me about Wentz is that I have yet to see him pull out a game we are losing with a last quarter drive. Maybe the Cardinals game...maybe. From what I have seen thus far, we either get out to big leads early and then hold on for the win, or fall behind and don't catch up. I have yet to see anything from Wentz to show me he is capable of making big plays down the stretch that can turn a lost game into a fourth quarter victory.  

Stats are meaningful to a point. Making winning plays at crunch time is more important, imo. I am just not sure that Wentz is yet the guy who we could count on to drive 80 yards with two minutes left to win a game.

He did just that against the Titans (last drive of regulation), Ravens, and Cards. Ravens game the K missed the game winning FG, he can't kick the ball. Why is there a maybe when mentioning the Cards game? The TD drive and TD throw were incredible. Oh and the Bucs game, we drove down in the middle of the 4th and tied the game up. 

He has literally one weapon to throw to: Pittman. And again, our team is not built around him to "overly" succeed. No QB has that few of weapons and is still top 10. Mahomes, Brady, Allen, Wilson, Stafford, Herbert, Burrow, Dak, Rodgers, Murray all have immensely more weapons. Carr and Cousins do too, when healthy. Look at the WRs on some of these teams or TEs. 

Again, 99% of the snaps and 26/6 is exactly what the Colts need with how good the rest of the roster and coaching staff is. He is 2nd in the league in INT rate, 8th in QBR, 12th in passer rating. I think, since week 4 he is like top 5 in a stupid amount of categories. I have seen that multiple times on twitter but just haven't remembered to keep track of it, so I could post it here. And he did all this in his first year in Indy, after coming off a dreadful season in Philly. Of his 6 picks, I think 3 were actually on him, and I understand every QB goes through that, but he could be sitting at 26/3 right now. 

Now to Sunday: I said in another post he played like poop. So did the OL, giving up a pressure on 25 of 28 drop backs is a joke. The TY play is way over blown, TY misjudged that ball or he still would have caught the poor pass that Wentz threw. TY has only been active nine games and they got zero training camp work together, I'm pretty sure. There is obviously continuity issues there, there has to be. Unfamiliarity would be a better term, there has to be some of that there. You can see TY chop his feet to try and elevate when the ball draws near, he needed to keep going "full speed" and catch that over his shoulder. 

If it's 2mins left in the game and we have to drive 80 yards to score, I will be pretty upset we didn't wrap the game up sooner. That's how loaded I think we are. Why couldn't the defense and the highest paid LBer in the league make a play to stop the Raiders, so Wentz could get a shot to win it? 

I'm just tired of listening to ESPN/Twitter/Message boards only talk about QB play because that's what they SEE. Wentz didn't cost them that game on Sunday, or even close for that matter, he was part of the reason they lost though, that's for sure, and I'd bet he'd tell ya that. 

Edited January 5, 2022 by btownqb

[rico]

3 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said:

Both teams make sense.  If I am the Bear's FO, though, I would throw the bank at Pat Fitzgerald.  Northwestern has a nice little program but it's basically capped.  He can keep banging his head against the wall there or stay in his hometown and go to the big boy league.

Is Northwestern Fitz's dream job?  

[jv1972iu]

33 minutes ago, rico said:

Is Northwestern Fitz's dream job?  

I don't know, obviously, but he played there and has been there in a coaching capacity since 2001.  So, my guess is yes.  Some guys just seem like college football coaches.  That's how I see Fitzgerald.

Edited January 5, 2022 by jv1972iu

[Seeking6]

Justin Fields gets the start and promptly goes on Covid list. That's so Bears. 

[FritzIam4IU]

1 hour ago, Seeking6 said:

Justin Fields gets the start and promptly goes on Covid list. That's so Bears. 

Very true. I actually didn't want him starting this meaningless game under Nagy. anyway. No reason to risk injury in this game for a lame duck coach...he got banged up enough this season. I just want him healthy and ready to go during offseason workouts under new coach.

[btownqb]

Why did AB think those text messages proved anything for him, in this debacle? Arians pretty well laid everything out the way it seemed it happened to all of us. 

[Seeking6]

27 minutes ago, FritzIam4IU said:

Very true. I actually didn't want him starting this meaningless game under Nagy. anyway. No reason to risk injury in this game for a lame duck coach...he got banged up enough this season. I just want him healthy and ready to go during offseason workouts under new coach.

Didn't want him playing either...and not just injury risk. I want his brain and psyche protected as we go into this off season as well. If he went out and went 12-28 and a couple picks he'll be thinking about that off summer. Just want him fresh for new staff.