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2023 NFL Discussion


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19 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

You put yourself in a place where you could lose the game.  Up 8 the worst thing that can happen is getting tied

Let's assume Carlson is 100% on extra points and the KC kicker who just missed one that length is 80%. Let's assume a two point conversion is 50/50 for both teams. Let's assume LV would score with not enough time left for KC to come back and kick a field goal (a very favorable assumption for your argument, but I'll grant it for sake of discussion).

If KC kicks the extra point, 6/10 times the game goes to OT. Let's say OT is 50/50, so KC loses 3 out of 10 games with your decision.

If KC goes for two, 5/10 times the game goes to OT and with the same 50/50 outcome KC loses 2.5 out of 10 games with the decision that was made.

So using assumptions that are pretty favorable to your argument, the math is still pretty clear that your 5% more likely to use with your method. When we look at how much time was actually left and that it was extremely likely KC would get the ball back after a LV score, that weighs the decision even more heavily in favor of going for 2. 

Going for two up 7 in the fourth quarter is an absolute no brainer that every coach should do. Especially if you have a shaky kicker. 

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23 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Let's assume Carlson is 100% on extra points and the KC kicker who just missed one that length is 80%. Let's assume a two point conversion is 50/50 for both teams. Let's assume LV would score with not enough time left for KC to come back and kick a field goal (a very favorable assumption for your argument, but I'll grant it for sake of discussion).

If KC kicks the extra point, 6/10 times the game goes to OT. Let's say OT is 50/50, so KC loses 3 out of 10 games with your decision.

If KC goes for two, 5/10 times the game goes to OT and with the same 50/50 outcome KC loses 2.5 out of 10 games with the decision that was made.

So using assumptions that are pretty favorable to your argument, the math is still pretty clear that your 5% more likely to use with your method. When we look at how much time was actually left and that it was extremely likely KC would get the ball back after a LV score, that weighs the decision even more heavily in favor of going for 2. 

Going for two up 7 in the fourth quarter is an absolute no brainer that every coach should do. Especially if you have a shaky kicker. 

I showed your post to my 10-year-old nephew.  He doesnt understand.

Edited by 5fouls
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2 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Let's assume Carlson is 100% on extra points and the KC kicker who just missed one that length is 80%. Let's assume a two point conversion is 50/50 for both teams. Let's assume LV would score with not enough time left for KC to come back and kick a field goal (a very favorable assumption for your argument, but I'll grant it for sake of discussion).

If KC kicks the extra point, 6/10 times the game goes to OT. Let's say OT is 50/50, so KC loses 3 out of 10 games with your decision.

If KC goes for two, 5/10 times the game goes to OT and with the same 50/50 outcome KC loses 2.5 out of 10 games with the decision that was made.

So using assumptions that are pretty favorable to your argument, the math is still pretty clear that your 5% more likely to use with your method. When we look at how much time was actually left and that it was extremely likely KC would get the ball back after a LV score, that weighs the decision even more heavily in favor of going for 2. 

Going for two up 7 in the fourth quarter is an absolute no brainer that every coach should do. Especially if you have a shaky kicker. 

Remember last year KC got the ball back with 13 seconds left against the Bills and still got a FG

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8 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Olave has an argument.

I know this is not the fantasy football thread, but I took over a rebuild last year in a dynasty league and managed to put together a rookie class for this year of Olave, Alec Pierce, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Dameon Pierce, Brian Robinson, and then a couple other fliers I am pumped about long-term. 

But yes, Olave is an absolute stud. 

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18 hours ago, dgambill said:

I believe not. I believe his new contract offsets the payout the way most do. At least partially. That said I bet he jumps right back in. He is a good coach just in a bad situation with no qb and poor OC.

Auburn, Arizona St....or the other half dozen jobs that will open up. Belongs back at the college level.

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4 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

Auburn, Arizona St....or the other half dozen jobs that will open up. Belongs back at the college level.

I think Nebraska is the right fit. Can restore the program like he did with Baylor. Has the resources and they’ve been humbled now and I think would have the appropriate expectations. Auburn is a horrible job imo. If you expect to beat your rival Alabama and compete for NC at a higher level then the last few coaches did that won there then you are always going to be on the hot seat.

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15 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

I know this is not the fantasy football thread, but I took over a rebuild last year in a dynasty league and managed to put together a rookie class for this year of Olave, Alec Pierce, Drake London, Jameson Williams, Dameon Pierce, Brian Robinson, and then a couple other fliers I am pumped about long-term. 

But yes, Olave is an absolute stud. 

With the right qb that team will absolutely compete next year. Can’t believe you were able to land all those guys! That’s awesome.

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6 minutes ago, dgambill said:

With the right qb that team will absolutely compete next year. Can’t believe you were able to land all those guys! That’s awesome.

It's an auction league so I'm competing this year with a few of the guys I was able to pick up. Definitely need a long term option at QB though - have Zach Wilson on my taxi squad, just did a pick swap (late 1st for early 2nd) to get Fields, then have Brady and Russ (Russ has a salary that will make me cut him next year even if he bounces back somewhat). So yeah, I'm definitely in trouble there

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Davante was charged with misdemeanor assault for the cameraman "shove". I find it pretty laughable regardless of everything surrounding that, but if the fans who threw stuff at him at halftime and used racial slurs aren't also charged then people in the Kansas City Police Department should lose their job. They'd never charge a Chiefs player because a camera man walked in front of them and ended up on the ground.

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2 hours ago, dgambill said:

I think Nebraska is the right fit. Can restore the program like he did with Baylor. Has the resources and they’ve been humbled now and I think would have the appropriate expectations. Auburn is a horrible job imo. If you expect to beat your rival Alabama and compete for NC at a higher level then the last few coaches did that won there then you are always going to be on the hot seat.

I get it I really do but I still think recruiting wise Auburn is obviously situated better than Lincoln. Plus Nick isn't coaching until he's 80. 

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52 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

I get it I really do but I still think recruiting wise Auburn is obviously situated better than Lincoln. Plus Nick isn't coaching until he's 80. 

I don't know about that 8o part.  But I totally agree with ya on the Auburn job.

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I also agree about the Auburn job, would not want it right now. Historically when Auburn has success, someone around them is down so that Auburn can capitalize and right now that ain't the case. It's not just Bama, but UGA, UT, UF, Ole Miss, then you add in Clemson nearby and UT and OU joining the SEC.... Auburn is probably in for some very lean years. 

I actually think Auburn's best bet to have success would be to lure Kiffin away from Ole Miss. 

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4 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Davante was charged with misdemeanor assault for the cameraman "shove". I find it pretty laughable regardless of everything surrounding that, but if the fans who threw stuff at him at halftime and used racial slurs aren't also charged then people in the Kansas City Police Department should lose their job. They'd never charge a Chiefs player because a camera man walked in front of them and ended up on the ground.

It's frustrating because there's zero chance DA saw that dude. 

His helmet is on, so that right there hinders your vision big time, and his visor is DARK.  Idk if you saw the angle or not of the video directly behind DA... I thought it was pretty clear DA didn't see that guy until the very last second. 

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