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Bracketology 2021-2022


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Some other bubble games to keep an eye out for tonight: Miami vs BC, Wake Forest vs NC State, Davidson vs George Mason, Notre Dame vs FSU, UAB vs So Miss. I based this off of Bracket Matrix’s picks and included 10 seeds and below and the top teams looking in. The teams on the bubble are bolded.

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35 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

We went from 43rd to 45 in NET. Question for those that know more on this stuff. We have more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins than Loyola Chicago...but they are trending towards safely in. Is it just because we have more Quad 1 losses?

LC is 8-3 in road games, so that may be propping up their rating. Rutgers NET moved up from 81 to 75, so we narrowly avoided our first Quad 3 loss, not that it probably matters.

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4 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

We went from 43rd to 45 in NET. Question for those that know more on this stuff. We have more Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins than Loyola Chicago...but they are trending towards safely in. Is it just because we have more Quad 1 losses?

Well they are also 14 spots higher in NET, even bigger gap in kenpom. Plus as I think I said previously, your non con SOS is really bad, #315 pre NET. Theirs is #44 which is really good for a mid major. And the road record as another poster mentions.

Also read some comments from the NCAA committee chair that makes it sound like they're going to be looking pretty favorably at mid majors this time around.

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Loyola winning their conference tournament today would be big - most have them as an at large but no one else from the MVC so that protects a bid.

I believe most had them as an at-large in projections because they weren’t winning their conference, could be wrong on that…

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Just now, KoB2011 said:

Loyola winning their conference tournament today would be big - most have them as an at large but no one else from the MVC so that protects a bid.

I believe most had them as an at-large in projections because they weren’t winning their conference, could be wrong on that…

I’m pretty sure you are correct

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11 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

It matters. There’s been some chatter we just need one in the BTT. I would feel a lot better with two, but it’s nice to know we still have some life. 

Agree.  2 we are in for sure.  Is the bracket set yet?  I'm gonna go look.

Ugh...looks like we play the #1 seed on Friday if we win on Thursday.  Did I read that right?  Winning 2 does not look good if that is the case.  

Edited by mookied39
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17 minutes ago, mookied39 said:

Not that it matters, Lunardi has us as a last 4 in this AM.  

 

 

Oh it matters plenty. I'll echo what many national folks have said. Just on the eye test IU looks like a tourney team...especially when you factor in how many close losses we've had.

When you dive into the analytics side of things is when it goes sideways. Get a win Thursday and get closer to being safe in my opinion and a win on Friday is lockville.

Need Loyola to win today.

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2 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Loyola winning their conference tournament today would be big - most have them as an at large but no one else from the MVC so that protects a bid.

I believe most had them as an at-large in projections because they weren’t winning their conference, could be wrong on that…

Bracket Matrix has Loyola as a 12 seed so don't think they are safely in yet.

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12 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said:

Bracket Matrix has Loyola as a 12 seed so don't think they are safely in yet.

I understand that, I just mean they were listed as a team we were competing with because someone else was being considered the auto bid from the MVC. Loyola is the only possible at large though despite not winning their regular season, so if they win today that’s good for IU. 

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2 hours ago, mookied39 said:

Agree.  2 we are in for sure.  Is the bracket set yet?  I'm gonna go look.

Ugh...looks like we play the #1 seed on Friday if we win on Thursday.  Did I read that right?  Winning 2 does not look good if that is the case.  

The #1 will be Wiscy. I think we’ve proven we can beat them. 

With that said, we need to beat Michigan first. 

Edited by kyhoosier29
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