IUskim Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 2 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: fair enough. i am curious what others think. it has been so hard to get road wins in conference. if we get those 5 along with the Michigan one, i'd be very happy. i guess that's assuming we win all of our home games. we didn't do that last year. if i counted right, we won 4 conference road games. just wondering what most would predict if they went through our upcoming conference schedule and had to make a bet with someone. i say 9-9 from here, so 11-9. that would put us at 19-12 going into the BTT. i would think we'd need to have a solid showing. just my thoughts and prediction. i hope we go 18-0! I’m realistic to know we aren’t going to win every conference game but those are the probably the best chances at a road win also I wasn’t saying we could win at Illinois. I was just saying that game is one that could go our way with has happened over there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, NCHoosier32 said: that's fair. i definitely don't have time to watch other random B1G games, so you know that better than i do. i would just caution that we only won 4 road conference games last year. it's not that the other teams are great. it's just tough to beat them on their home floor. pretty hard to point to games that give me confidence we'll win more than that this year. now that said, i get your point that Purdue is really the only impressive team. could we beat anybody else on the road? sure. i agree. how many of those games do you think we'll win? And also, as much as we could probably beat anybody, anybody could beat us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 Just now, IUskim said: I’m realistic to know we aren’t going to win every conference game but those are the probably the best chances at a road win also I wasn’t saying we could win at Illinois. I was just saying that game is one that could go our way with has happened over there. absolutely great point about Illinois. i do think we could possibly win that game if the wheels are coming off. also i wasn't being sarcastic about the teams you said. i could see those as possible wins. i appreciate you naming the weaker ones. if you were a betting man, what do you think our conference record will be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SawatchHoosier Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 (edited) 18 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: fair enough. i am curious what others think. it has been so hard to get road wins in conference. if we get those 5 along with the Michigan one, i'd be very happy. i guess that's assuming we win all of our home games. we didn't do that last year. if i counted right, we won 4 conference road games. just wondering what most would predict if they went through our upcoming conference schedule and had to make a bet with someone. i say 9-9 from here, so 11-9. that would put us at 19-12 going into the BTT. i would think we'd need to have a solid showing. just my thoughts and prediction. i hope we go 18-0! I think anywhere between 9-11 to 11-9 is reasonable at the moment. We have managed during the last 4 games to hold teams below their points per possession average while forcing teams to give up more points than their allowed points per possession average. Defensively and offensively we've seen improvement overall the last 4 games. Obviously this trend needs to continue and we really need multiple wins in conference by large margins to put us firmly into the tournament without any blowout losses. I guess we will see if these improvements continue against Nebraska. This is winnable game if we shoot like we did the last two games. Edited December 31, 2023 by SawatchHoosier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUskim Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 5 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: absolutely great point about Illinois. i do think we could possibly win that game if the wheels are coming off. also i wasn't being sarcastic about the teams you said. i could see those as possible wins. i appreciate you naming the weaker ones. if you were a betting man, what do you think our conference record will be? 12-8 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 12 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: fair enough. i am curious what others think. it has been so hard to get road wins in conference. if we get those 5 along with the Michigan one, i'd be very happy. i guess that's assuming we win all of our home games. we didn't do that last year. if i counted right, we won 4 conference road games. just wondering what most would predict if they went through our upcoming conference schedule and had to make a bet with someone. i say 9-9 from here, so 11-9. that would put us at 19-12 going into the BTT. i would think we'd need to have a solid showing. just my thoughts and prediction. i hope we go 18-0! Neb. PSU Minnesota Rutgers Maryland Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 1 minute ago, IUskim said: 12-8 that's fair and would put us at 20-11. i would like to think a 20 win season for IU is still tourney worthy, but is it? i hope so. still kind of think we'd be biting our nails going into the BTT. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 3 minutes ago, IU Scott said: Neb. PSU Minnesota Rutgers Maryland fair enough. not great teams and seems plausible. add Michigan who we already beat on the road. do you see us going undefeated at home? if so, you think 15-5 in conference? i'd be VERY happy with that and absolutely think we'd be in the tourney for that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted December 31, 2023 Report Share Posted December 31, 2023 From toughest to easiest on the road in the Big 10 for us in my opinion Purdue Wisconsin Illinois Ohio State Nebraska Maryland Rutgers Michigan (W) Penn State Minnesota 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUskim Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 42 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: that's fair and would put us at 20-11. i would like to think a 20 win season for IU is still tourney worthy, but is it? i hope so. still kind of think we'd be biting our nails going into the BTT. I can’t even speak on if it’s tourney worthy or not. Just because I have no idea what the committee wants year to year. I would think we would probably need one game in the BTT at that record. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 51 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said: fair enough. not great teams and seems plausible. add Michigan who we already beat on the road. do you see us going undefeated at home? if so, you think 15-5 in conference? i'd be VERY happy with that and absolutely think we'd be in the tourney for that. I doubt it 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 1 Author Report Share Posted January 1 (edited) Last year's NCAA Tournament 'First Four' at-large teams, with records going into the tournament and final KenPom rating. This gives some context of what level of record and efficiency rating IU would need if they finish with 11-12 losses (including BTT).. Mississippi State (21-12) - #53 KenPom Pittsburgh (22-11) - #59 KenPom Arizona State (22-12) - #55 KenPom Nevada (22-10) - #62 KenPom Edited January 1 by 5fouls 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobSaccamanno Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 Doesn’t KenPom have us going 6-12 the rest of the way? The true outcome will either validate the system or debunk it. NET is the primary system that the NCAA tourney uses. It’s being continually tweaked and improved. They got rid of margin of victory which has always been a distorted data point and thank goodness they got religion on that. But they do look into efficiencies so winning teams still have motivation to put the pedal to the metal in blowouts. I’m sure that will be moved out by weighing possessions over time. A possession at 82-49 is not the same as a possession at 62-61. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCHoosier32 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, IU Scott said: I doubt it doubt what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 12 minutes ago, 5fouls said: Last year's NCAA Tournament 'First Four' at-large teams, with records going into the tournament and final KenPom rating. This gives some context of what level of record and efficiency rating IU would need if they finish with 11-12 losses (including BTT).. Mississippi State (21-12) - #53 KenPom Pittsburgh (22-11) - #59 KenPom Arizona State (22-12) - #55 KenPom Nevada (22-10) - #62 KenPom I believe those are the KP rankings after the tourney. I think going in they were as follows: MS St: #49 Pitt: #77 Az St: #68 Nevada: #43 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobSaccamanno Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 Last time I looked, IU was 102 in the NET. There were something like 11-12 B1G teams ahead of us. So by definition we have a chance to get quite a few quality wins and move up substantially in the NET. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 (edited) 35 minutes ago, BobSaccamanno said: Last time I looked, IU was 102 in the NET. There were something like 11-12 B1G teams ahead of us. So by definition we have a chance to get quite a few quality wins and move up substantially in the NET. Eh kinda. If we are honest with ourselves about the difficulties of winning on the road, we need to really look at what home games are quad 1. Currently you’d have Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State as our only remaining Quad 1 home games. Michigan State is barely Quad 1 and my guess is they’ll either fall out OR that will be an incredibly tough game by March. Illinois… kinda think the same thing, depending on how they respond to the Shannon situation. Ohio State is probably the only other candidate for a home game becoming a Quad 1 game. Add in the road game at Nebraska as another Quad 1 chance, but that’s about it. So the reality is we really don’t have a lot of chances at Quad 1 wins, so not losing many/any Q2 or Q3 games and winning probably half of those games remaining is really important (we are already 0-3 in Quad 1 games I believe). EDIT: missed Wisconsin as Quad 1 for both games against them Edited January 1 by KoB2011 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, NCHoosier32 said: doubt what? We go undefeated at home Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 I think the numbers say that it’s almost 2024 and we should move forward! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 1 Author Report Share Posted January 1 3 hours ago, Kdug said: I believe those are the KP rankings after the tourney. I think going in they were as follows: MS St: #49 Pitt: #77 Az St: #68 Nevada: #43 Yes. They are after. I said 'final'. That said, I would be surprised if Nevada fell 19 spots in the rankings after losing 1 game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, 5fouls said: Yes. They are after. I said 'final'. That said, I would be surprised if Nevada fell 19 spots in the rankings after losing 1 game. Well, prepare to be surprised. Nevada lost by 25 to Arizona State, which significantly impacted their kenpom ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceDouglas Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 9 hours ago, KoB2011 said: Eh kinda. If we are honest with ourselves about the difficulties of winning on the road, we need to really look at what home games are quad 1. Currently you’d have Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan State as our only remaining Quad 1 home games. Michigan State is barely Quad 1 and my guess is they’ll either fall out OR that will be an incredibly tough game by March. Illinois… kinda think the same thing, depending on how they respond to the Shannon situation. Illini don't visit Bloomington this season so you'll have to beat us in Champaign. Bottom line for IU right now is they need to beat some teams that will be in the tournament and it looks like there may only be 5-6 of those in conference this year. Some road wins over the other bubble teams would help, too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 Just for comparison sake...First 5 games versus the last 8... First 5 games were against current Kenpom 227, 328, 169, 6, and 183 Last 8 are against current Kenpom 188, 74, 62, 8, 13, 132, 230, 217 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, BruceDouglas said: Illini don't visit Bloomington this season so you'll have to beat us in Champaign. Bottom line for IU right now is they need to beat some teams that will be in the tournament and it looks like there may only be 5-6 of those in conference this year. Some road wins over the other bubble teams would help, too. Yeah I was going off of memory, that makes it more tricky. Nebraska game on Wednesday is huge for us. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdhoosier Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 (edited) 14 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said: Doesn’t KenPom have us going 6-12 the rest of the way? The true outcome will either validate the system or debunk it. NET is the primary system that the NCAA tourney uses. It’s being continually tweaked and improved. They got rid of margin of victory which has always been a distorted data point and thank goodness they got religion on that. But they do look into efficiencies so winning teams still have motivation to put the pedal to the metal in blowouts. I’m sure that will be moved out by weighing possessions over time. A possession at 82-49 is not the same as a possession at 62-61. I was thinking just now. It’d be interesting to see if the NET could mark lead changes: how many lead changes happen within a game and how late into the game they happen. hypothetically, Let’s say we beat both the 200 and 201 ranked teams by 13 points. Let’s say the score for both games was 83-70. While the games could be seemingly similar on the the results, they could be played drastically different. Scenario A: We could (as in the North Alabama game) control the game from beginning to end - up by as many as 20, but put in the bench and rest our starters. Scenario B: Or we could (as in the Kennesaw State game) keep the game in reach lose the lead with 8 minutes left, get hot, and ultimately win by 13. If you watch both games it’d be easy to observe we played like a better team in scenario A. But how well is the NET able to capture the competitiveness of a game using the offensive/defensive metrics that are currently in place? Edited January 1 by tdhoosier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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