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What The Numbers Say


5fouls

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13 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Simple request for HSN.

If you don't believe in analytics/numbers, just don't participate in the thread.  You'll notice I don't participate in the Hunting/Fishing thread in Colonial Crester's Corner.  I don't like to hunt.  I don't like to fish.  However, I let those who do enjoy the thread, and do so without me jumping on there 2-3 times a day stating how stupid those activities are, or making snide remarks about waiting for the hunting/fishing season to play out before we come to any conclusions regarding squirrels and large-mouth bass.  

Crazy concept! But it won’t work! Been suggested a long time ago. 

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2 hours ago, BGleas said:

I think we have a chance to have a really strong Big Ten season, but I think it's equally as likely that we disappoint and things don't go well. 

IMO, the two biggest indicators will be:

1. Health - XJ in particular

2. The coaching staff and how they play things the rest of the way

If we can stay healthy and get XJ back and fully healthy and up-to-speed, then I think if the coaching staff pushes the right buttons we can really surprise some teams.

A couple things interest me. First is your point about IU's guards struggling and not being a strong point. The other is people mentioning that we need XJ back and that we need him playing like he did in late-Feb/March of 2022, and that he was struggling last season and early this season. 

What we don't mention as much is that Galloway was really struggling earlier this season too. I think the big reason both were struggling was the style of offense being run. 

So, what happened in late-Feb/March os 2022? Recall that the offense changed during that time. Offensively we went far more to the high PnR action with XJ and TJD and went away from two bigs in the paint. We opened things up and let XJ drive the car. Both he and TJD thrived.

Earlier this season, IU spent the first 5-6 games with two bigs in the paint and everyone just dumping the ball to them and standing around. It caused clogged lanes (meaning no room for XJ or Galloway to drive), it caused stagnant offense, and it cause poor shooting opportunities. 

But, the last 3-4 games or so we've changed the offense for the most part. We've used horns action (2 bigs up top to begin the action), chin actions, pin downs and high PnR's. With these changes Galloway has thrived (he looks like a version of Ty Jerome from UVA), we've created much better shooting opportunities and guys have been able to get to the basket. None of this has taken away from the bigs either. 

My point on the coaching is that if we can get XJ back and fully healthy and the coaching staff sticks to this style of offense that is guard driven running things through Galloway and XJ (essentially giving them the keys to the car), use Ware like an NBA big (PnR, rim running, popping, etc.) minimizes the overhelping defensively, etc., then I'm much more bullish on the rest of the season. 

I honestly think if we let the offense run through XJ and Galloway creating, then we can finish top 3 in the conference. The other way and I think we could miss the tournament. I'm just not sure which way things will go. We tend to do it in spurts and then go completely away from it. 

Good take. 
 

I mentioned to IUFLA that I have hope IU will be able to turn things around this season because Woody has shown he can and will change. 

He’s changed his subbing patterns and he’s changed how he runs the offense the last two years. He’s even cleaned up the over helping issue on defense.  

that said, I do wonder why he keeps on going back to the things we’ve changed from in the past years? A pattern is developing each season. He does these crazy mass subs until he doesn’t. He doesn’t run as much PnR actions until he does. The team over-helps until he unshackles them from the nail and the problem becomes less of an issue.  

Why not just completely cut out the bad if it’s proven not to work? Why does he keep trying it? what am I, as a layman, missing here?

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44 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Good take. 
 

I mentioned to IUFLA that I have hope IU will be able to turn things around this season because Woody has shown he can and will change. 

He’s changed his subbing patterns and he’s changed how he runs the offense the last two years. He’s even cleaned up the over helping issue on defense.  

that said, I do wonder why he keeps on going back to the things we’ve changed from in the past years? A pattern is developing each season. He does these crazy mass subs until he doesn’t. He doesn’t run as much PnR actions until he does. The team over-helps until he unshackles them from the nail and the problem becomes less of an issue.  

Why not just completely cut out the bad if it’s proven not to work? Why does he keep trying it? what am I, as a layman, missing here?

You think he has cleaned up the overhelping? Man, I’m not seeing that. 

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3 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Great point. Basketball isn’t that complicated. We should stop acting like it is so complex that we can’t have some really good conversations about what we do and don’t do well. 

Absolutely true but I think the original point was about analytics creators.  

I'm guessing.  Someone was interested in creating a predictor to make money betting.  So they hired some geeks to come up with some formulas.  

Bottom line, like a good Tom Izzo team.  1. Rebound. 2 defend.  3. Limit turnovers. 4 hit shots at a high rate.  I'm guessing those four factors create some efficiency formula that says you are likely to win.  Actually VERY SIMPLE.  1st grade math says do those four things well and you win.  Ca pow

Edited by NotIThatLives
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23 minutes ago, kyhoosier29 said:

You think he has cleaned up the overhelping? Man, I’m not seeing that. 

He did last year. We went from that PSU game to completely controlling Purdue’s guards and beating them twice. 

this year not so much……yet.🤞 

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15 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Simple request for HSN.

If you don't believe in analytics/numbers, just don't participate in the thread.  You'll notice I don't participate in the Hunting/Fishing thread in Colonial Crester's Corner.  I don't like to hunt.  I don't like to fish.  However, I let those who do enjoy the thread, and do so without me jumping on there 2-3 times a day stating how stupid those activities are, or making snide remarks about waiting for the hunting/fishing season to play out before we come to any conclusions regarding squirrels and large-mouth bass.  

x2.  And I took your hunting and fishing remarks personally!  lol

 

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6 minutes ago, rico said:

x2.  And I took your hunting and fishing remarks personally!  lol

 

LOL at that video.  it's hilarious.  I have several extended family members that go fishing every opportunity they get.  I haven't been since I was probably 12 or 13 years old.  My grandpa had a pond we used to fish on back in the day.

Very few hunters in the family though.  Not something anybody I grew up around really did.  

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1 hour ago, KoB2011 said:

I mean… who knows?

How do we realistically think this team is in better shape next year than this year?

I really think CMW and crew have realized the mistakes they made in the portal and will correct them 

Maybe they weren’t as “shady” as other schools with back channel communications or NIL offers 

 

MR

TG

Cupps

Newton 

add freshman 

5 or 6 portal 

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1 hour ago, NotIThatLives said:

Nil and portal.  That's all I got.  

The portal is a big deal and allows teams to flip much quicker than they used to be able to. If things continue trending the way they look this year, there will be a lot of pressure to have a good year next year. I’d imagine/hope we’ll hit the portal hard, especially when it comes to guards.

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9 minutes ago, Kdug said:

The portal is a big deal and allows teams to flip much quicker than they used to be able to. If things continue trending the way they look this year, there will be a lot of pressure to have a good year next year. I’d imagine/hope we’ll hit the portal hard, especially when it comes to guards.

Absolutely

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28 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

This team is flirting with the worst finish, sans Crean’s first two teams, we have ever had in KenPom.

KenPom certainly isn’t the be all, end all, but that is pathetic and a complete failure. 

I feel like KenPom is a good sign of how good a team is, and even without it the eye test tells me this is one of the worst IU teams in recent years up to this point in the season.

I guess the optimistic view is that last year it looked like we were free falling at this exact same point in the season and we turned it around. The difference is last year’s team showed a lot of promise earlier in the year and had good veteran leadership which this team is sorely lacking.

If we’re looking for positive stats, the last two games were two of the better defensive performances of the season. Torvik had the Ohio State game at an adjusted defensive rating of 94.6 and Rutgers at 90.6 - and it’s adjusted, so it’s already accounting for Rutgers being bad on offense.

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2 hours ago, 5fouls said:

https://www.cnhinews.com/indiana/sports/college_sports/article_8ba25fca-7e86-56df-8b70-1c0d66f3c930.html

I believe this story was before last night's games.

Story on analytics across Big Ten Conference teams.

An excerpt from the article.

image.png.85824cb404a091a416ebc81c35d2abfc.png

 

Watching OSU against WI and Thorton has made three contested midrange shots. That’s probably bad for analytics, but it’s better than 0-7 from three against IU. 

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3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

https://www.cnhinews.com/indiana/sports/college_sports/article_8ba25fca-7e86-56df-8b70-1c0d66f3c930.html

I believe this story was before last night's games.

Story on analytics across Big Ten Conference teams.

An excerpt from the article.

image.png.85824cb404a091a416ebc81c35d2abfc.png

 

Wisconsin, analytically sound, wins on the road, while Ohio State and Penn State, both analytically deficient, lose at home.  

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