BobSaccamanno Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 There is little chance for us to be a quality team and improve our numbers without XJ (a) coming back, and (b) playing like he did the second half of ‘22. I like our guards individually but collectively they have been a weakness. It’s hard to generate good data when your guards are either too young or not talented enough. If you ignore the first couple of Tom Crean years’ our stretch of backcourt play in ‘21, ‘22, and ‘24 (‘23 being the exception with JHS) has been the weakest in my lifetime of watching IU which is closing in on 50 years. Alford, Edwards and Bailey aren’t walking through that door. Hopefully, Woody gets 2-3 guards in the portal to turn that around next year. As an example, love Cupps and he has gotten good experience this year. But I’m sure that he would benefit from a year redshirting next year working on his mass, strength, athleticism, and getting his shot off at this level. Don’t squander your time not being ready physically. Right now he can play 27 minutes, score one basket, hardly get an assist, and get beaten off the bounce regularly. I think he can have a great turnaround story but he needs time. Honestly Leal should be absorbing some of those inefficient minutes. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, tdhoosier said: I was thinking just now. It’d be interesting to see if the NET could mark lead changes: how many lead changes happen within a game and how late into the game they happen. hypothetically, Let’s say we beat both the 200 and 201 ranked teams by 13 points. Let’s say the score for both games was 83-70. While the games could be seemingly similar on the the results, they could be played drastically different. Scenario A: We could (as in the North Alabama game) control the game from beginning to end - up by as many as 20, but put in the bench and rest our starters. Scenario B: Or we could (as in the Kennesaw State game) keep the game in reach lose the lead with 8 minutes left, get hot, and ultimately win by 13. If you watch both games it’d be easy to observe we played like a better team in scenario A. But how well is the NET able to capture the competitiveness of a game using the offensive/defensive metrics that are currently in place? I don’t think the NET tracks that, but I know Trank does. He uses a weighted margin of victory, so scenario A is considered a better performance than scenario B. I don’t think that’d necessarily help us this year though. We’ve had a lot of games that were back and forth where we pulled away late. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 1 Author Report Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said: There is little chance for us to be a quality team and improve our numbers without XJ (a) coming back, and (b) playing like he did the second half of ‘22. I like our guards individually but collectively they have been a weakness. It’s hard to generate good data when your guards are either too young or not talented enough. If you ignore the first couple of Tom Crean years’ our stretch of backcourt play in ‘21, ‘22, and ‘24 (‘23 being the exception with JHS) has been the weakest in my lifetime of watching IU which is closing in on 50 years. Alford, Edwards and Bailey aren’t walking through that door. Hopefully, Woody gets 2-3 guards in the portal to turn that around next year. As an example, love Cupps and he has gotten good experience this year. But I’m sure that he would benefit from a year redshirting next year working on his mass, strength, athleticism, and getting his shot off at this level. Don’t squander your time not being ready physically. Right now he can play 27 minutes, score one basket, hardly get an assist, and get beaten off the bounce regularly. I think he can have a great turnaround story but he needs time. Honestly Leal should be absorbing some of those inefficient minutes. Getting a starting quality PG in the portal should be the coaching staff's #1 priority in the offseason. Getting a starting quality 2 or 3 that is a light's out shooter should be #2 . 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SawatchHoosier Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 18 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said: Doesn’t KenPom have us going 6-12 the rest of the way? The true outcome will either validate the system or debunk it. KenPom has us at 5-13 the rest of the way. 7 of those losses are by 1 or 2 possessions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 2 minutes ago, SawatchHoosier said: KenPom has us at 5-13 the rest of the way. 7 of those losses are by 1 or 2 possessions. KenPom spelled backwards is MopNek 😁 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWatShot Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, SawatchHoosier said: KenPom has us at 5-13 the rest of the way. 7 of those losses are by 1 or 2 possessions. Sounds like the year we had Romeo Langford. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 7 minutes ago, TheWatShot said: Sounds like the year we had Romeo Langford. Or the Noah Vonleh year. Went 7-11 in the B1G with 7 of the losses by 7 or less. Had a win over Kennesaw St. that year. We also lost to UConn at MSG that year, but that was only by 1 point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted January 1 Report Share Posted January 1 (edited) For reference comparing this year to 2022 when we were the Last Four in. Current Team Sheet 2022 Team Sheet I think Michigan sneaking into the Top 75 and Ohio State getting into Top 30 and us winning that game on Saturday would be huge for our tournament chances. Of the games currently considered Quad 1 remaining, hard to imagine we win a lot of them IMO. At Nebraska and Michigan State at home feel like the best two chances, but I think those are at best a toss up. KenPom has those at 28% and 32% chances of victory FWIW. Edited January 1 by KoB2011 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 For the analytics guys: #94 https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Indiana&year=2024 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, rico said: For the analytics guys: #94 https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Indiana&year=2024 I hope we Kyle Schwarber all the analytics 🙂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, rico said: For the analytics guys: #94 https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Indiana&year=2024 So, projected to be 13-18, 5-15 in B1G. Home dog to Nebraska Yikes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, 13th&Jackson said: So, projected to be 13-18, 5-15 in B1G. Home dog to Nebraska Yikes We need wins and lots of them. Nebraska is a start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 I wonder if any of these analytics guys ever played basketball? Or are they just statistics geeks sitting in front of a computer screen all their lives? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 Torvik spelled backwards is KivRot 🙂 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: I wonder if any of these analytics guys ever played basketball? Or are they just statistics geeks sitting in front of a computer screen all their lives? How many NASA engineers went into space? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IU Scott Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 4 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: I wonder if any of these analytics guys ever played basketball? Or are they just statistics geeks sitting in front of a computer screen all their lives? I doubt they have Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 7 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said: There is little chance for us to be a quality team and improve our numbers without XJ (a) coming back, and (b) playing like he did the second half of ‘22. I like our guards individually but collectively they have been a weakness. It’s hard to generate good data when your guards are either too young or not talented enough. If you ignore the first couple of Tom Crean years’ our stretch of backcourt play in ‘21, ‘22, and ‘24 (‘23 being the exception with JHS) has been the weakest in my lifetime of watching IU which is closing in on 50 years. Alford, Edwards and Bailey aren’t walking through that door. Hopefully, Woody gets 2-3 guards in the portal to turn that around next year. As an example, love Cupps and he has gotten good experience this year. But I’m sure that he would benefit from a year redshirting next year working on his mass, strength, athleticism, and getting his shot off at this level. Don’t squander your time not being ready physically. Right now he can play 27 minutes, score one basket, hardly get an assist, and get beaten off the bounce regularly. I think he can have a great turnaround story but he needs time. Honestly Leal should be absorbing some of those inefficient minutes. I think we have a chance to have a really strong Big Ten season, but I think it's equally as likely that we disappoint and things don't go well. IMO, the two biggest indicators will be: 1. Health - XJ in particular 2. The coaching staff and how they play things the rest of the way If we can stay healthy and get XJ back and fully healthy and up-to-speed, then I think if the coaching staff pushes the right buttons we can really surprise some teams. A couple things interest me. First is your point about IU's guards struggling and not being a strong point. The other is people mentioning that we need XJ back and that we need him playing like he did in late-Feb/March of 2022, and that he was struggling last season and early this season. What we don't mention as much is that Galloway was really struggling earlier this season too. I think the big reason both were struggling was the style of offense being run. So, what happened in late-Feb/March os 2022? Recall that the offense changed during that time. Offensively we went far more to the high PnR action with XJ and TJD and went away from two bigs in the paint. We opened things up and let XJ drive the car. Both he and TJD thrived. Earlier this season, IU spent the first 5-6 games with two bigs in the paint and everyone just dumping the ball to them and standing around. It caused clogged lanes (meaning no room for XJ or Galloway to drive), it caused stagnant offense, and it cause poor shooting opportunities. But, the last 3-4 games or so we've changed the offense for the most part. We've used horns action (2 bigs up top to begin the action), chin actions, pin downs and high PnR's. With these changes Galloway has thrived (he looks like a version of Ty Jerome from UVA), we've created much better shooting opportunities and guys have been able to get to the basket. None of this has taken away from the bigs either. My point on the coaching is that if we can get XJ back and fully healthy and the coaching staff sticks to this style of offense that is guard driven running things through Galloway and XJ (essentially giving them the keys to the car), use Ware like an NBA big (PnR, rim running, popping, etc.) minimizes the overhelping defensively, etc., then I'm much more bullish on the rest of the season. I honestly think if we let the offense run through XJ and Galloway creating, then we can finish top 3 in the conference. The other way and I think we could miss the tournament. I'm just not sure which way things will go. We tend to do it in spurts and then go completely away from it. 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, rico said: How many NASA engineers went into space? Not quite the same. How do you account for a player with the heart to pull his team along with him… kinda like TJD? Or a coach who can push the right buttons to get his team to overachieve? NASA is all science and math. No human element to make a mission successful. Either you do it right or you’re screwed. Space travel does not equate to a game Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 11 minutes ago, BGleas said: I think we have a chance to have a really strong Big Ten season, but I think it's equally as likely that we disappoint and things don't go well. IMO, the two biggest indicators will be: 1. Health - XJ in particular 2. The coaching staff and how they play things the rest of the way If we can stay healthy and get XJ back and fully healthy and up-to-speed, then I think if the coaching staff pushes the right buttons we can really surprise some teams. A couple things interest me. First is your point about IU's guards struggling and not being a strong point. The other is people mentioning that we need XJ back and that we need him playing like he did in late-Feb/March of 2022, and that he was struggling last season and early this season. What we don't mention as much is that Galloway was really struggling earlier this season too. I think the big reason both were struggling was the style of offense being run. So, what happened in late-Feb/March os 2022? Recall that the offense changed during that time. Offensively we went far more to the high PnR action with XJ and TJD and went away from two bigs in the paint. We opened things up and let XJ drive the car. Both he and TJD thrived. Earlier this season, IU spent the first 5-6 games with two bigs in the paint and everyone just dumping the ball to them and standing around. It caused clogged lanes (meaning no room for XJ or Galloway to drive), it caused stagnant offense, and it cause poor shooting opportunities. But, the last 3-4 games or so we've changed the offense for the most part. We've used horns action (2 bigs at the high post to being the action), chin actions, pin downs and high PnR's. With these changes Galloway has thrived (he looks like a version of Ty Jerome from UVA), we've created much better shooting opportunities and guys have been able to get to the basket. None of this has taken away from the bigs either. My point on the coaching is that if we can get XJ back and fully healthy and the coaching staff sticks to this style of offense that is guard driven running things through Galloway and XJ (essentially giving them the keys to the car),use Ware line and NBA big (PnR, rim running, popping, etc.) minimizes the overhelping defensively, etc., then I'm much more bullish on the rest of the season. I honestly think if we let the offense run through XJ and Galloway creating, then we can finish top 3 in the conference. The other way and I think we could miss the tournament. I'm just not sure which way things will go. We tend to do it in spurts and then go completely away from it. If you recall, in late 21-22 season, it was TJD who went to Woodson and asked to go to the Pick and roll offense 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGleas Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said: If you recall, in late 21-22 season, it was TJD who went to Woodson and asked to go to the Pick and roll offense Interesting. There was also all of the talk of Woodson brining Randy Whitman in as a consultant during that time and him having some influence. Either way, I like our team a lot better with a more modern offense that is driven by the guards creating off of using the bigs in more modern ways. I think both XJ and Galloway thrive in that style and it makes the offense much more dynamic. Galloway really does remind me of a version of (not as good of a shooter but much athletic) Ty Jerome. Run things through XJ and Galloway, create easy lobs for Ware and Reneau, rim runs for Ware and Walker, get open perimeter looks for Mgbako, Reneau, Ware, XJ and Galloway, etc. Ware and Reneau will still get lots of close and efficient looks. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 8 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: Not quite the same. How do you account for a player with the heart to pull his team along with him… kinda like TJD? Or a coach who can push the right buttons to get his team to overachieve? NASA is all science and math. No human element to make a mission successful. Either you do it right or you’re screwed. Space travel does not equate to a game Meh. I thought it was a good analogy. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steubenhoosier Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 20 minutes ago, rico said: Meh. I thought it was a good analogy. Meh, it wasn’t 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 minute ago, Steubenhoosier said: Meh, it wasn’t 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 32 minutes ago, Steubenhoosier said: Space travel does not equate to a game Great point. Basketball isn’t that complicated. We should stop acting like it is so complex that we can’t have some really good conversations about what we do and don’t do well. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KoB2011 Posted January 2 Report Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, IUFLA said: I hope we Kyle Schwarber all the analytics 🙂 So do I. We have the pieces to do it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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