Coronavirus

[tdhoosier]

Just now, 5fouls said:

The damage is that it causes people not to believe other things they hear about Covid.  For example, someone will use this as an excuse not to wear a mask.  I firmly believe masks to be something that is beneficial in fighting this disease.  But, between the politics and the outright dishonesty, it's going to be impossible to unite the country in the fight, which is the only way to win.

Crap like this is simply unnecessary.

 

100% agree. EXACTLY the point I was going to make. Anomalies are being weaponized. It gets me furious. 

But who's weaponizing them?

I'm not excusing the idiots making these errors (whether intentionally or unintentionally), but these instances are also being unproportionately over-reported. And they are being shared. It's a never ending cycle. How did a local news story from Miami make it on to this board? Is a national media outlet reporting on the reporting? Did it start trending on Twitter? Just curious @Reacher, how did you find out about this? I'm guessing you don't make a regular habit of perusing the local Miami news stories. haha. 

We aren't going to stop every instance of mis-reporting a death case, but this headline is misleading and irresponsible because it feeds into a conspiracy theory people are using as an excuse not to be socially responsible. 

"Doubts about accuracy of COVID-19 death numbers continue as man’s death wrongly attributed to virus."

Continue? On what scale? Doubts? Whose doubts? Nowhere in the story did they report other mis-represented cases or expand on this allegation. That headline alone leads people to believe that there is a systemic problem. 

It seems like in the end we agree that this crap is unnecessary. But if it is, then why is it being reported on this heavily? When it comes to creating the mistrust prevalent in our society, can you agree that the anomaly is the spark, and the reporting of these anomalies (as if they are representative) is the accelerant?

 

[5fouls]

1 minute ago, tdhoosier said:

I'm not excusing the idiots making these errors (whether intentionally or unintentionally), but these instances are also being unproportionately over-reported.

 

As are situations when someone under 40 dies.  How many headlines do we see about a young person dying of Covid.  We see a lot more stories about young people dying of Covid than we do about 85 year old nursing home residents.  Yet, older people die much more frequently.  And, we don't see a flood of stories about young people dying of cancer, or other diseases.

 

[tdhoosier]

5 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

As are situations when someone under 40 dies.  How many headlines do we see about a young person dying of Covid.  We see a lot more stories about young people dying of Covid than we do about 85 year old nursing home residents.  Yet, older people die much more frequently.  And, we don't see a flood of stories about young people dying of cancer, or other diseases.

 

Not disagreeing. Good examples. The over-reporting of children's deaths as a reason not to open schools came to my mind while I was writing that sentence. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by tdhoosier

[Inequality]

What was it, maybe 1.8-1.9 million tuberculosis deaths 2018? 2019 mirrored that number. Sorry, just random drivel. Carry on

[5fouls]

Clark County, Indiana, where I live, with a population of over 118,000, has had only two Covid related deaths since May 25th, and none since June 22nd. There have been a lot of other things in that time that have caused two people to die. 

I bring this up because school is scheduled to start next week in all three of the public school districts in the county.  Yet, there remains this great fear among a vocal minority about what's going to happen.  All 3 districts are offering modified learning experiences for those that want it, yet this small group remains very vocal.  They seem to be offended that each of the districts are still offering traditional schooling, without taking into account things like the lack of mortality in the county right now, as well as the fact that single parent and two-income families can't afford to continue to have a learning from home environment.  

Positive tests have already impacted some of the summer workouts for the high school sports teams.  IHSAA mandates related to Covid are strict and very disruptive when a positive case is identified.  We can't let knee jerk reactions to totally shot down the schools.  People at school will test positive, just as they do for other illnesses throughout the school year.  But, in a county with only two deaths in the last two months, there is little justification to impede the education process in the current environment.  And, it's not like the county has been this bastion of caution throughout this situation.  Masks are just now getting to the point where more than 50% of the people I see out in public have them on.

Edited July 20, 2020 by 5fouls

[Reacher]

57 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

100% agree. EXACTLY the point I was going to make. Anomalies are being weaponized. It gets me furious. 

But who's weaponizing them?

I'm not excusing the idiots making these errors (whether intentionally or unintentionally), but these instances are also being unproportionately over-reported. And they are being shared. It's a never ending cycle. How did a local news story from Miami make it on to this board? Is a national media outlet reporting on the reporting? Did it start trending on Twitter? Just curious @Reacher, how did you find out about this? I'm guessing you don't make a regular habit of perusing the local Miami news stories. haha. 

We aren't going to stop every instance of mis-reporting a death case, but this headline is misleading and irresponsible because it feeds into a conspiracy theory people are using as an excuse not to be socially responsible. 

"Doubts about accuracy of COVID-19 death numbers continue as man’s death wrongly attributed to virus."

Continue? On what scale? Doubts? Whose doubts? Nowhere in the story did they report other mis-represented cases or expand on this allegation. That headline alone leads people to believe that there is a systemic problem. 

It seems like in the end we agree that this crap is unnecessary. But if it is, then why is it being reported on this heavily? When it comes to creating the mistrust prevalent in our society, can you agree that the anomaly is the spark, and the reporting of these anomalies (as if they are representative) is the accelerant?

 

The point is, we don't know the accuracy of the numbers. Those numbers then are being used to open / close states, schools, and businesses affecting millions of people. You are assuming the anomalies are closer to 1 then 10,000. That neither one of us has any idea is kind of the point. We should all want accuracy and transparency. I think its pretty clear we don't have that. 

I saw that article on some other site and clicked through. Had that story not came out, the correction never would have been made. 

I generally prefer being closer to the source than some media spin on a story. Foxnews had the story up today (Mon) about 85 infants with Covid in TX. A clarification came out Fri by Neuces Co https://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/TXNUECES-2963aba that those were over a 4 month period and they have been aggressive in contact tracing testing which would explain the apparent large # (of course families of Covid patients  are going to test + at a high rate). Yet that info is not in the MSN, Foxnews stories. Accurate reporting would do much to alleviate the mistrust, but I'm not going to wait around hoping for that. 

Hopefully, many will not take seriously the conspiracy stories and the best way to discredit those will be to shine the light on them and expose them. That has been happening hence the fake news mantra. Meanwhile, lots of people will see a misleading headline and jump to conclusions. We will just to wait until studies come out on the accuracy of the #s  and make decisions then. With such a rapidly evolving story, affecting almost everyone, there will be mistakes (remember hearing how it will drop off over the summer? Seemed logical and many well respected people endorsed it). The reality is almost no one knows the truth here as the story is still being written. 

My final thought is this. Don't shoot the messenger for publishing/ bringing up an article. Do your own due diligence. Don't rush to conclusions. Let time and history be the judge of whats right vs wrong.

[tdhoosier]

4 minutes ago, Reacher said:

The point is, we don't know the accuracy of the numbers. Those numbers then are being used to open / close states, schools, and businesses affecting millions of people. You are assuming the anomalies are closer to 1 then 10,000. That neither one of us has any idea is kind of the point. We should all want accuracy and transparency. I think its pretty clear we don't have that. 

We're going at this backwards. If one makes the allegation that we're off 10,000 in the death toll then the burden of proof is on them to prove otherwise. I'm going by the generally accepted stats.

One can only prove a specific negative claim by providing contradictory evidence, none of which has been found. The closest we've come to this is cherry picking unrepresentative anomalies. You saying 'we don't know what the numbers are' or 'something seems fishy' is not evidence to any claim....it just casts doubt at this particular point in time. And doubt is starting to become dangerous because it's being used as an excuse to not wear a mask or not avoid high risk areas, which fuels R. I really think we all need to be more conscience and recognize when or if we are propagating doubt without any evidence to the contrary. And I mean this on all sides of the issue. I have probably have been guilty of this myself in the past. 

That said, I think I'm basing my beliefs on more than just assumptions. I don't know how much clearer you can get when looking at the excessive death rate over the 5 year median. The only people I hear disputing the figures are either politicians, pundits and economists. None of whom, have any expertise in this particular field of measuring deaths caused by viruses. Sure you may find a statement from a scientist somewhere that doesn't completely agree with the majority of his/her peers, but if 9 out of 10 dentists say brushing your teeth is good.....then I'm going to brush my teeth. 

P.S. Tone gets lost in text. Just wanted to be clear, I wasn't 'shooting the messenger' in my response, I was genuinely wondering about the path the miami story took, because I also saw it on my FB feed too. I appreciate you bro! 

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980#:~:text=The baseline was then projected forward until May,year-to-year baseline variation%2C influenza epidemics%2C and reporting delays.

Scroll down to the results section. As expected, large variation among states. They found 122k additional deaths over that period. Of which 95k were attibuted to COVID. Were COVID deaths underestimated? Without evidence to back it up, I think there were excess deaths from people not going to hospitals, getting treatments, etc during the peak. What is that #? It could be the almost 30k excess deaths. If COVID deaths are overstated, maybe that # is even higher.  As the months go by, this should all become clearer.  

BTW, I never alleged deaths were off by 10k, I was just throwing out a number as no one knows how accurate the # of deaths are. We just know it is not accurate. 

Appreciate you too! 

[Seeking6]

3 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Clark County, Indiana, where I live, with a population of over 118,000, has had only two Covid related deaths since May 25th, and none since June 22nd. There have been a lot of other things in that time that have caused two people to die. 

I bring this up because school is scheduled to start next week in all three of the public school districts in the county.  Yet, there remains this great fear among a vocal minority about what's going to happen.  All 3 districts are offering modified learning experiences for those that want it, yet this small group remains very vocal.  They seem to be offended that each of the districts are still offering traditional schooling, without taking into account things like the lack of mortality in the county right now, as well as the fact that single parent and two-income families can't afford to continue to have a learning from home environment.  

Positive tests have already impacted some of the summer workouts for the high school sports teams.  IHSAA mandates related to Covid are strict and very disruptive when a positive case is identified.  We can't let knee jerk reactions to totally shot down the schools.  People at school will test positive, just as they do for other illnesses throughout the school year.  But, in a county with only two deaths in the last two months, there is little justification to impede the education process in the current environment.  And, it's not like the county has been this bastion of caution throughout this situation.  Masks are just now getting to the point where more than 50% of the people I see out in public have them on.

2 deaths and none since June 22nd and people are still worried there? Full steam ahead I say. 

[tdhoosier]

41 minutes ago, Reacher said:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980#:~:text=The baseline was then projected forward until May,year-to-year baseline variation%2C influenza epidemics%2C and reporting delays.

Scroll down to the results section. As expected, large variation among states. They found 122k additional deaths over that period. Of which 95k were attributed to COVID. Were COVID deaths underestimated? Without evidence to back it up, I think there were excess deaths from people not going to hospitals, getting treatments, etc during the peak. What is that #? It could be the almost 30k excess deaths. If COVID deaths are overstated, maybe that # is even higher.  As the months go by, this should all become clearer.  

BTW, I never alleged deaths were off by 10k, I was just throwing out a number as no one knows how accurate the # of deaths are. We just know it is not accurate. 

Appreciate you too! 

So what you're saying is we could possibly be under-reporting COVID deaths now? Did I read that right? Haha.

The excessive mortality reports are interesting. That's how they eventually measured the death toll from the Earthquake in Haiti. Eventually it will also be how we learn a better estimation to the COVID death toll in Russia, China and Brazil. (I actually do believe that China has low numbers - I've been reading some articles. They have some crazy Orwellian crap going on over there.) 

Edit: Another interesting thing I read since we are talking about total mortality was that deaths caused by automobile accidents were way down in April and may because people obviously weren't driving as much. Not sure if that offsets anything in particular but I read a lot of suicides were up during the same period. Take the good with the bad, I guess. 

Edited July 20, 2020 by tdhoosier

[5fouls]

34 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

2 deaths and none since June 22nd and people are still worried there? Full steam ahead I say. 

To clarify, it's 2 deaths since May.  There have been 44 total deaths related to Covid.  A couple of nursing homes got hit hard in April.

That' said, it's amazing the panic some are expressing on social media about schools opening.

[Parakeet Jones]

4 hours ago, 5fouls said:

Clark County, Indiana, where I live, with a population of over 118,000, has had only two Covid related deaths since May 25th, and none since June 22nd. There have been a lot of other things in that time that have caused two people to die. 

I bring this up because school is scheduled to start next week in all three of the public school districts in the county.  Yet, there remains this great fear among a vocal minority about what's going to happen.  All 3 districts are offering modified learning experiences for those that want it, yet this small group remains very vocal.  They seem to be offended that each of the districts are still offering traditional schooling, without taking into account things like the lack of mortality in the county right now, as well as the fact that single parent and two-income families can't afford to continue to have a learning from home environment.  

Positive tests have already impacted some of the summer workouts for the high school sports teams.  IHSAA mandates related to Covid are strict and very disruptive when a positive case is identified.  We can't let knee jerk reactions to totally shot down the schools.  People at school will test positive, just as they do for other illnesses throughout the school year.  But, in a county with only two deaths in the last two months, there is little justification to impede the education process in the current environment.  And, it's not like the county has been this bastion of caution throughout this situation.  Masks are just now getting to the point where more than 50% of the people I see out in public have them on.

I teach in one of those three districts and I can tell you that JCPS postponing students coming back in person has stirred things up even more. 

[Seeking6]

33 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

To clarify, it's 2 deaths since May.  There have been 44 total deaths related to Covid.  A couple of nursing homes got hit hard in April.

That' said, it's amazing the panic some are expressing on social media about schools opening.

I won't say what I want to say because because don't want this going a different way.....but in my little corner of the world I've known 3 people who have died. Dozens of positive cases...and most are let's go. It's our new norm. 

[Reacher]

59 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

So what you're saying is we could possibly be under-reporting COVID deaths now? Did I read that right? Haha.

The excessive mortality reports are interesting. That's how they eventually measured the death toll from the Earthquake in Haiti. Eventually it will also be how we learn a better estimation to the COVID death toll in Russia, China and Brazil. (I actually do believe that China has low numbers - I've been reading some articles. They have some crazy Orwellian crap going on over there.) 

Edit: Another interesting thing I read since we are talking about total mortality was that deaths caused by automobile accidents were way down in April and may because people obviously weren't driving as much. Not sure if that offsets anything in particular but I read a lot of suicides were up during the same period. Take the good with the bad, I guess. 

I have no idea whether deaths are under or over reported. That study either has 30k mystery deaths or their model is off 25%.  I like to bring up points and articles that I see as relevant- and let others make their own decisions.  I am skeptical of the numbers and information we are getting.  Agree, we'll eventually get closer to the truth- whatever that might be. 

[5fouls]

Personally, my kids gained nothing from the e-learning experience the last quarter during last school year.

[Hoosierhoopster]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Personally, my kids gained nothing from the e-learning experience the last quarter during last school year.

Yes unfortunately e-learning has largely been a failure not to mention how it disadvantages segments of the population. A lot to learn from this pandemic. 
So far my daughter is scheduled to return to school but then have classes online while she’s there, which is kind of funny, my middle child is scheduled to return to classes at his college, and my oldest has no idea because the school hasn’t decided yet. 

[Reacher]

7 minutes ago, Hoosierhoopster said:

Yes unfortunately e-learning has largely been a failure not to mention how it disadvantages segments of the population. A lot to learn from this pandemic. 
So far my daughter is scheduled to return to school but then have classes online while she’s there, which is kind of funny, my middle child is scheduled to return to classes at his college, and my oldest has no idea because the school hasn’t decided yet. 

Hope your daughter gets the online tuition rate! I think it's a crime how these colleges are ripping off students. 

[Seeking6]

1 hour ago, 5fouls said:

Personally, my kids gained nothing from the e-learning experience the last quarter during last school year.

What several we know are doing is poaching substitute teachers and having them teach groups of 7-8. One guy in our hood is donating his garage (3 car space, heating/ac,etc..) and buying the equipment. Desks, dry erase boards, chalk boards,etc...and the other 5 families are paying the sub off the books. Each family has decided $100/week (6 families) is a far better option to provide structure and guidance for the kids in same class. Every day from 9-130 or 2. 

Allows people to still work, keep their jobs,etc.....and only costs the adults a $100 per week to to know a teacher is there helping and guiding. To me this makes a ton of sense.

[5fouls]

The Indiana High School Athletic Association is allowing kids that choose Virtual Schooling to participate in sports.  Does anyone besides me see the hypocrisy in that?  If the parent feels the school environment itself poses too much of a risk, then how in the world can they justify allowing their child to play sports, which is even a greater risk than simply attending school. Seems to me that people that go that route are trying to game the system.

[5fouls]

The Commonwealth of Kentucky reported 977 cases yesterday and only 253 today.  Numbers that far apart in a 24 hour period are hard to accept as reality.  One or the other is off for whatever reason.

 

[Seeking6]

12 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

The Indiana High School Athletic Association is allowing kids that choose Virtual Schooling to participate in sports.  Does anyone besides me see the hypocrisy in that?  If the parent feels the school environment itself poses too much of a risk, then how in the world can they justify allowing their child to play sports, which is even a greater risk than simply attending school. Seems to me that people that go that route are trying to game the system.

Can't speak for others. Good friend of mine's son is just now getting noticed as a QB. Has several regional smaller schools and a couple what we classify as larger one's looking at him. It's a $200k fall for this family. They want him away from the masses but able to play and gain a scholarship. Covid manipulation has been going on since March. No reason to stop it now I guess.

[TheWatShot]

27 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

The Commonwealth of Kentucky reported 977 cases yesterday and only 253 today.  Numbers that far apart in a 24 hour period are hard to accept as reality.  One or the other is off for whatever reason.

 

They were so tired from counting that high they needed to rest a bit today? Three-digit numbers are big to Kentuckians. 

[mrflynn03]

In 8th grade I broke both bones in my left arm just above the wrist in my first football practice after my first game. To lose a season you can never get back sucks. Feel bad if the high school kids dont get sports. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by mrflynn03

[jimsorgi]

9 hours ago, 5fouls said:

The Commonwealth of Kentucky reported 977 cases yesterday and only 253 today.  Numbers that far apart in a 24 hour period are hard to accept as reality.  One or the other is off for whatever reason.

 

Some states report testing numbers in batches. There’s nothing odd or suspicious about that - but that’s also why it’s better to look at 7-day averages; there’s significant day-to-day noise. 

[Reacher]

https://apnews.com/b98cf80c36d338f833f3a47d84141d11

90 false positives here.