GaloisGroupe

Real barn burner in Wisconsin

13 -18 at the half

22 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Remaining Schedule with ESPN’s winning predictor

at NW 56% W 
At MSU 32% L
Vs Wiscy 67% W 

at OSU 31% L

Vs Maryland 83% W

At Minny 62% W

Vs Rutgers 87% W

At Purdue 31% L

end the season winning 5-3

21-9, 12-8

 

 

So the expected # of wins would be: 0.56 + 0.32 + 0.67 + 0.31 + 0.83 + 0.62 + 0.87 + 0.31 =  4.49

I thought of one positive from the game: the fans didn't storm the court!

🤣🤣🤣

Just like the Michigan game, it is what it is. The key is that the team needs to rebound in the same way and win the next games.

For now, we have our buoyancy level: a solid, but not quite elite team. 

We did miss RP in this one. A second lock-down defender on the perimeter would have made it closer.

That being said, they just wore us out and I do not think much changes that.

On defense, we need two Race Thompsons

On to the next one, hopefully we punish NW for this beat down.

They just physically dominated us.

We have gotten away from our offense - that usually is not a good sign

1 minute ago, IUKane21 said:

I’m not worried. Expected a run. We’re the better team at home. Lock in in D and let’s close. 

Nothing has really gone our way so far and we have not brought in the super subs yet

Time to bring in some bench players

2 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

All of his 3's were wide open and just were short.  The last one he had to take since the clock was at 1

I am ok with him taking because if he hits a couple today and they have to start defending him out there, we would have a huge opportunity. Whereas a miss just doesn't change things much.

As long as we do not work exclusively for it, it is a medium risk, high reward shot.

1 minute ago, Reacher said:

Durr breathed on him

Seriously, cockburn slams an elbow and Durr for standing there

Cockburn fouls a lot

Some of us may want to delete some early season comments about Durr not being valuable in the big ten 🤣

Just now, Parakeet Jones said:

Neither 

The ball.

Both of those fouls did not make sense - TJD cannot pick up a foul that far fro the rim today...

We may be watching Duncomb by the end of the game.

Just now, IUFLA said:

It makes me sick when they say UNC-Duke is the best rivalry in college basketball, and UK-Louisville is 2nd...

The people that ruined IU-UK f'd up the best rivalry in college basketball...ever

They are just hyping ESPN products - UK - Louisville is not that big of a rivalry; completely onesided

LET"S GET READY TO RUMBLE!!!!

I am so pumped for this game.

Additional fire for the number of wins Using the same probabilities (and assuming independence, which I know is a strong assumption):

• vs UI 0.65
• @ NW, 0.7 
• @ MSU 0.2
• vs Wisc 0.8
• @ OSU 0.1
• vs MD 0.9
• @ Minn 0.5
• vs RU    0.8
• @ PU 0.1

 Then the probability distribution is: 

1 minute ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

True but no one runs the zone like cuse.  And they had some legit talent on that team that year.

I agree, that was a final four team that hit the worst possible opponent. 

7 minutes ago, IowaHoosierFan said:

Were they as good defensively, no but closer than you think.  They were way more dangerous on the offensive end.  Had we not ran into Syracuse, we probably make the finals that year.

That year reminded of the pedro cerrano character in major leagues. (enough fastballs, throw him some breaking balls - about 1 minute into the video)

"Wow this team is amazing - how are they not favored to win the title?"

"Enough man-to-man, show them a 2-3 zone"

4 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

Curious where you got those odds?

if you just used your assumptions, how do you figure we only have a 10% chance to win at OSU when we dominated them at home and we didn’t even particularly play well on offense?

We beat them as bad as we did Minny but you’ve got us 5 times more likely to beat Minny?

I just made them up - I am nervous about road games at this point (if MD on the road looks more like the norm, I would reassess and shift some of those probabilities).

It is more an illustration of how we could argue about expected wins. If you have different probabilities, you can recalculate the expected wins. 

EDIT: As far as the difference with Minny, I just think they are the better team. I think we caught them off guard with Trey's return. They will have prepared for him this time. 

9 minutes ago, NCHoosier32 said:

that definitely blows my mind, but i love the stats.  i was going to kind of try to look up predictors today to get an idea.  i don't think i expect us to lose every marginal game.  i just figured we would be underdogs in @ OSU, @ MSU, and @ PU.  sure we could pull an upset.  personally if i am predicting, which is what we are discussing, i don't predict an upset there.  don't know if we'd be underdogs vs #11 at home?  i could see that going either way.  haven't seen odds on Saturdays' game, but figured it could go either way.  i'm thinking/assuming we'll be favorites at NW and MN, but think NW is actually pretty good and MN is a very tough place to play.  i'm not predicting we lose both, but don't think either are gimmes.  i want to count Rutgers and MD at home as wins.  other than that, all i'm saying is i think it's likely we lose the 3 toughest road games and 2 more.  could we go 7-2?  6-3?  sure!  i don't think many would want to take that bet though?  4.75-4.25 seems reasonable.  

I think we mostly agree on games, the probability theory just allows us to quantify our uncertainty. Qualitatively

1. Small chance: MSU, OSU, PU
2. Coin toss: Minn on the road
3. Slightly favored: UI at home, NW on the road
4. Favored: Wisc, MD, RU at home

So I would say 5-4 off of that, however, I am "more confident" in some of the losses than the favored at this time, so the adjusts it down for that. Someone else might say, I think the UI game at home is a coin toss and change that to 0.5 (or even lower) and then they can recalculate or only favor us slightly in the Wisc game and shift that from 0.8 to 0.6. Then they can recalculate. 

To throw some fire on the "counting" all leans as wins or losses, here is a probability theory approach to determining the "Expected number of wins".  

Notations: P = probability, | = conditioned on, O = outcome, V = venue, F = foe (since O was already used), W = number of wins over the last 9 games, w = win, l=loss, h= home, a = away, E[.] = expected value

Example of notation: P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = "probability of the outcome being a win conditioned on foe being University of Illinois and the venue being at home" and so P(O=w | F=UI and V = h) = 0.65 means I am assigning a 65% chance we win against Illinois at home.

With this I can assess my probability (my assessments - you can create your own or use website) of a win for the remaining games: 

1. P(O=w | F=UI and V=h)         = 0.65
2. P(O=w | F=NW and V=a)      = 0.7
3. P(O=w | F=MSU and V=a)    = 0.2
4. P(O=w | F=Wisc and V=h)    = 0.8
5. P(O=w | F=OSU and V=a)    = 0.1
6. P(O=w | F=UMCP and V=h) = 0.9
7. P(O=w | F=Minn and V=a)    = 0.5
8. P(O=w | F=RU and V=h)       = 0.8
9. P(O=w | F=PU and V=a)       = 0.1

So my expected # of wins over the last nine is: 

E[W] = ∑ P(Oi=w | F=fi and V=vi) = 0.65 + 0.7 + 0.2 + 0.8 + 0.1 + 0.9 + 0.5 + 0.8 + 0.1 = 4.75 wins. 

If we win on Saturday (and I do not reassess probabilities for the remaining games), then my expected number of wins would jump 0.35 to 5.1 wins and if we lose it would drop 0.65 to 4.1 wins (every observed win or loss is a swing of 1).

2 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

I said 6-3. I think 5-4 is a floor and 7-2 is probably a ceiling. I don't really see any evidence this team is going to finish below .500 down the stretch and I don't actually think any of you see evidence of that from this team either, it's just fear from different teams with different rosters and different coaching staffs.

This is why I am nervous... hard to shake some of our late(ish) season collapses on what I thought would be tournament teams. 

• 2016-2017: We collapsed after impressive early season (wins over Kansas and UNC);
  • peak moment:  8-1 with wins over Kansas and UNC 
  • last moment likely "in tournament": on 8 Feb we were 15-9 (5-6) - lose to PU on the 9th and the rest is history
• 2017-2018: Early season losses to ISU and IUPUFW kept this from feeling great early but:
  • Peak moment: on 22 Jan we were 12-8 (5-3)
  • last moment likely "in tournament": on 19 Feb we were 16-12 (9-7), lose the next three and the rest is history
• 2018-2019: I am still scratching my head over that 1-11 streak... 
  • Peak moment: on 05 Jan we were 12-2 (3-0)
  • last moment likely "in tournament": hard to say, but we lost 11 of 12 after the peak and the rest is history
• 2019-2020:  
  • Peak moment: on 23 Jan we were 15-4 (5-3)
  • last moment likely "in tournament": I do not want to rehash, but probably when COVID ended the season
• 2020-2021:  
  • Peak moment: no real peak to the season
  • last moment likely "in tournament": probably would have had a punchers chance had the season ended when we were 12-9 (7-7) on 17 Feb - then we lost the last 6 and the rest is history

This team feels different... I have not felt this confident in a LONG time, but that was lot of disappointing finishes.