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Honest take on Bball Program?


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OK. Looking for everyone’s honest assessment of the current state of the basketball program. Feel free to add your outlook as well. 
 

Here’s my take: 

M feeling coming into this season was that this team was significantly overrated. The key components of this team was 9th in the B1G last year and had to go on a mini run to make the tournament. They added some nice freshmen, but no impact (or any) transfers. I felt that not adding veteran shooters was a major failing of this coaching staff. It was the obvious glaring weakness that wasn’t addressed. 
 

As we’ve seen in the three recent losses, this team is easy to defend. The game plan is simple. It’s unfair to TJD that he’s played his whole career without shooters. That said, his failure to develop a mid range jump shot makes him too easy to defend. 
 

The B1G is down this year. I don’t see any teams making a deep run. But partially based on schedules I see IU finishing somewhere around 4-7 in the B1G and being somewhere from an 8 seed to sweating on the bubble. I don’t like the serious regression on defense, but opponents are a factor in that. Flaws aside, losing XJ is a big deal. 
 

As far as the future, I’m pleased about some things that CMW brings, but he’ll turn 65 in March. On average, CBB coaches have coached 15 years before their first title. I feel that he’s a transition hire, but there’s no obvious successor. I don’t see any assistants who are the future. Maybe Michael Lewis tears it up at BSU and can step into a program that CMW has stabilized and has trending in the right direction. But it’s a narrow window before CMW’s age begins to affect recruiting. 
 

Your thoughts?

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Lewis' style may work at a school like Ball State, but I'm not sure it will work at a school like IU.

I had very high hopes that this team was different.  Got sucked in by our depth early in the season.  Bit the results are pretty clear.  

  • TJD still struggles against physicality
  • Race is still extremely inconsistent
  • X was the one of 2 guys we could not have get injured
  • Hood-Schifino is not the first round draft pick he appeared to be earlier in the year.
  • Teams have scouted and figured out Reneau  
  • Geronimo is still Geronimo.
  • The team still appears to have the mental block about playing away from home
  • Kopp is a positive
  • Bates is a positive on offense, but a liability on defense

In the end, this looks like a Round of 32 team, Sweet 16 at best.  

 

 

 

Edited by 5fouls
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Coming into the season I thought we would comtend for the big ten titles and some of that was due to what other teams had lost.  I thought our ceiling was probably the sweet 16 so I never thought we were going to be an elite team. 

If anyone thought in a year and a half that Woodson would have us in a discussion of being elite was setting themselves for disappointment . I still think we have a chance to compete for the big ten because I haven't been overly impressed by the other teams in the conference. Purdue has played well but even they haven't ayex real well in their last two games.

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18 minutes ago, Mike said:

We lost 3 games.

I think the '80-'81 team was 7-5 after 12 games.  Assuming we beat Elon, this team will be 9-3 after 12 games.  

Do I think this team will won the Championship?  No.

But, does that mean the season is over?  No

Does your 'sky is falling act' get old?  Yes.

 

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23 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I think the '80-'81 team was 7-5 after 12 games.  Assuming we beat Elon, this team will be 9-3 after 12 games.  

Do I think this team will won the Championship?  No.

But, does that mean the season is over?  No

Does your 'sky is falling act' get old?  Yes.

 

At least we didn't play Pan American this year

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Unfortunately this team will be defined by TJD. And unfortunately, that’s not positive. Great person. Good player. Melts when the heat gets too high. He is the embodiment of the team. Never has been, nor ever will be a “when the going gets tough “ kind of leader.

CMW has brought the program back to respectability. That’s an accomplishment. But until we can stop being owned by the likes of Rutgers and Wisconsin, we’ll be the soft team that we’ve been for too long 

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i have to step back to saying i was not excited about the Mike Woodson hiring.  with that said, i have been very happy with how things have trended since he was hired.  i just think some people are a little quick in saying he has done anything yet.  very excited about the recruiting he has done so far.  still think this season will be fun.  at least more fun than it's been for quite a few years.  i still think this is a program that should have very high expectations.  can he get us there?  maybe.  i sure hope so.   

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3 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I think some of you are forgetting TJD against Michigan and Illinois last year with the "soft" talk...

 

Ok…..but where is that version of TJD? He can’t just play like that when his coach just got done chewing his rear end!!! He HAS to be ready to go every single night and he’s not!! That’s why he gets labeled as soft. 

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2 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

I think some of you are forgetting TJD against Michigan and Illinois last year with the "soft" talk...

 

I don’t feel that he’s soft as much as he doesn’t have a natural position. He’s an undersized 5 who gets physically dominated in the post against big centers. He maybe played his best game against IL in the tournament, but prior to that game, he really struggled against Cockburn. He really should be a 4, if he had a jump shot. He has quick moves on the floor and is a capable ball handler for a big. 

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Okay, I’ve gotta be careful how I say this because I’m in no way discrediting TJD as a player or a player or a person. BUT I need to ask: is having TJD on this team (and past teams) a problem? Just thinking out loud. Not entirely sure I’m convinced of this myself.

I appreciate what he has done for the program. He’s provided me with some great memories. He’s a stat machine. He seems to be a great person and a great teammate. This is not an anti-TJD post. 

However, our reliance on him always seems paralyze us. The coaches (both Woody and Archie) are so tempted to play an inside/outside game with him because he’s awesome. And they can’t rid that temptation. He’s option 1A, 1B and 1C. When he’s taken away by opposing defenses we don’t know what to do. It’s like everybody keeps get getting sucked into a hole.

I feel like this team just needs to learn to play without him.

The coaches need to learn to play without him. 

Am I on to something or am I crazy?

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2 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Okay, I’ve gotta be careful how I say this because I’m in no way discrediting TJD as a player or a player or a person. BUT I need to ask: is having TJD on this team (and past teams) a problem? Just thinking out loud. Not entirely sure I’m convinced of this myself.

I appreciate what he has done for the program. He’s provided me with some great memories. He’s a stat machine. He seems to be a great person and a great teammate. This is not an anti-TJD post. 

However, our reliance on him always seems paralyze us. The coaches (both Woody and Archie) are so tempted to play an inside/outside game with him because he’s awesome. And they can’t rid that temptation. He’s option 1A, 1B and 1C. When he’s taken away by opposing defenses we don’t know what to do. It’s like everybody keeps get getting sucked into a hole.

I feel like this team just needs to learn to play without him.

The coaches need to learn to play without him. 

Am I on to something or am I crazy?

I think so

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2 minutes ago, IUFLA said:

It's more like this team needs to make plays when he gets them the ball off a double team...

Vitale said it, Coach Woodson said it... 

I guess I just think it’d be an interesting experiment (that would never happen - haha) if they just let TJD rest his back for two weeks and force the team to learn to play without him. Force the coaching staff to learn how to game plan without him. I really think that this team would surprise us in a good way. 

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This team is substantially better than last year. 

Year       KenPom #    KenPom OE    KenPom DE

21-22           48                95                   24

22-23           17                30                   23

There is only 1 B1G team rated ahead of us this year.  But there are a handful nipping at our heels.

We face 2 big challenges.   First, opponents have figured out how to slow us down offensively.  Second, we are losing X, a top player for awhile and maybe the season.  The team and coaches have to meet those challenges.

I predict 1-4 in B1G and 1 or 2 wins in the tourney.

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