Looking ahead to 2019-2020

[IU Scott]

1 minute ago, rico said:

And then you have to look at who they will be adding......

https://www.scout.com/Season/2019-Basketball/TeamRankings/

They also have 3 guys who were freshman this year that did not play much that is supposed to be really good.

[Stlboiler23]

1 hour ago, IUaic said:

But a lot like Carsen, what does he have to gain by coming back another year?

Well Carsen is much higher on the draft boards than Winston for one thing. Wouldn’t surprise me if Winston did declare that he wouldn’t even be drafted. Or maybe very late in the second round. 

[Bowhunter]

 

So we cut some dead weight from the bench looking for a Culture change but still have all the leftover starters. A couple of them I thought might have been part of the problem. I guess not?

 

[FKIM01]

6 minutes ago, Bowhunter said:

 

So we cut some dead weight from the bench looking for a Culture change but still have all the leftover starters. A couple of them I thought might have been part of the problem. I guess not?

 

The leading scorers coming back are: Devonte Green (9.3), Al Durham (8.3), Justin Smith (8.2), Rob Phinisee (6.9) and De'Ron Davis (5.4).  Most of these guys got starter minutes last year so it's hard to believe that Archie thought they were problems or if they were, he apparently felt like they put their problems in the rearview mirror.  Adding Jerome Hunter, Trayce Jackson Davis, and Armaan Franklin, plus bringing back Damezi Anderson and Race Thompson gives IU a pretty solid core.  Joey Brunk would add some muscle, leaving another outside shooter on the wishlist.  Durham was my bold prediction...expected him to get to 37% from deep and he was on pace prior to injuring his finger, finishing just under 35%.  A jump to 38% would seem quite possible making Al an option.  Devonte shot 41% from distance and unless he has a layup, needs to stay outside.  Absolutely agree with those who said he needs to abandon the midrange game...just not for him and he shot considerably worse from there than he did from distance.  We're told Hunter has a really nice stroke from distance and I sure hope we get to witness that this year.  Damezi needs to relax.  He looks great in warmups so the potential is there.  I'm cautiously optimistic about the outside game improving. Juwan and Romeo were our volume shooters and neither one had a good year shooting from distance.

I was never one to significantly over-project IU's success guessing 20 wins then (I think) 23 in Archie's first two seasons.  Losing Romeo and Juwan is big for IU, but so is another year in the system for returning players.  I think this is the year the team avoids a bunch of injuries and Archie finally catches up to my expectations...23 wins.

[Zlinedavid]

1 hour ago, Bowhunter said:

 

So we cut some dead weight from the bench looking for a Culture change but still have all the leftover starters. A couple of them I thought might have been part of the problem. I guess not?

 

Culture changes don't always mean subtraction. 

[rico]

10 minutes ago, Zlinedavid said:

Culture changes don't always mean subtraction. 

Absolutely, at IU sometimes new guys coming in add influx to the program after a disappointing year.  Ray Tolbert and Eric Anderson come quickly to mind.

[Bowhunter]

I guess on the bright side of things, if one or two guys get out of hand, they can spend time on the bench. Last season Archie didn’t have as many options with all the injuries.

[rico]

2 hours ago, Bowhunter said:

I guess on the bright side of things, if one or two guys get out of hand, they can spend time on the bench. Last season Archie didn’t have as many options with all the injuries.

He had options, he just didn't use them.

[JWoolsey]

Alright guys I've got a little treat for yall....I've been spamming the optimism vibe around the forum lately and I'll continue that again.

Replacing the output lost from Romeo and Juwan looks pretty daunting but in reality I don't think that it will be. I've cooked up a formula in excel to find out how difficult that would be and honestly it was very easy to do. I could see every player on the list performing better than that output besides Trayce which makes next year even more enticing.

Working on the assumption that we land Brunk.

Devonte - 28.6 mpg / 12.6 ppg.

Durham - 28.3 mpg / 9.6 ppg.

Rob - 27.7 mpg / 8.6 ppg.

Trayce - 23.4 mpg / 11.2 ppg.

Smith - 21.4 mpg / 7.1 ppg.

De'ron - 15.7 mpg / 6.1 ppg.

Brunk - 15.7 mpg / 5.0 ppg.

Hunter - 15.7 mpg / 5.3 ppg.

Race - 10.0 mpg / 2.7 ppg.

Damezi - 9.0 mpg / 2.3 ppg.

Franklin - 4.6 mpg / 0.9 ppg.

 

 

 

 

 

[rico]

18 minutes ago, JWoolsey said:

Alright guys I've got a little treat for yall....I've been spamming the optimism vibe around the forum lately and I'll continue that again.

Replacing the output lost from Romeo and Juwan looks pretty daunting but in reality I don't think that it will be. I've cooked up a formula in excel to find out how difficult that would be and honestly it was very easy to do. I could see every player on the list performing better than that output besides Trayce which makes next year even more enticing.

Working on the assumption that we land Brunk.

Devonte - 28.6 mpg / 12.6 ppg.

Durham - 28.3 mpg / 9.6 ppg.

Rob - 27.7 mpg / 8.6 ppg.

Trayce - 23.4 mpg / 11.2 ppg.

Smith - 21.4 mpg / 7.1 ppg.

De'ron - 15.7 mpg / 6.1 ppg.

Brunk - 15.7 mpg / 5.0 ppg.

Hunter - 15.7 mpg / 5.3 ppg.

Race - 10.0 mpg / 2.7 ppg.

Damezi - 9.0 mpg / 2.3 ppg.

Franklin - 4.6 mpg / 0.9 ppg.

 

 

 

 

 

Good stuff....but did you allow for the Dairy Queen factor.  You know, where 3 guys at the same time are on ice cream headache protocol.

[JWoolsey]

2 minutes ago, rico said:

Good stuff....but did you allow for the Dairy Queen factor.  You know, where 3 guys at the same time are on ice cream headache protocol.

😂😂

Well this is just an alpha version with minimal work put into in. I'm honestly not sure what happens with the 4 just yet. I kind of had to do some sloppy work with Race, Jerome, and De'Ron/Bunk.

[FKIM01]

That's a scoring average of 71.4. With any defensive improvement at all, I feel pretty good about IU's prospects for a nice step forward.

...and while it's nearly a complete unknown, I have a feeling you are undervaluing Hunter's contribution, assuming he's all the way back from his condition.  Then again, there's always the risk that he's a zero, but if he's GTG, I have high expectations.

[rico]

54 minutes ago, FKIM01 said:

That's a scoring average of 71.4. With any defensive improvement at all, I feel pretty good about IU's prospects for a nice step forward.

...and while it's nearly a complete unknown, I have a feeling you are undervaluing Hunter's contribution, assuming he's all the way back from his condition.  Then again, there's always the risk that he's a zero, but if he's GTG, I have high expectations.

Yeah, Hunter is the one the season very well might hinge on.

[IUCrazy2]

3 hours ago, rico said:

Yeah, Hunter is the one the season very well might hinge on.

Can I be a bit of a stick in the mud regarding Hunter?  He is coming back from an injury that kept him not only from playing for the year but also limited in practice.  We spent all of last summer hyping up just how great Langford was going to be and when he came in and was just "pretty good", it made for quite a bit more angst about how the team performed.  Hunter is starting to get the same mythological build up before any of us have ever really seen him play.  Let's pump the brakes a bit on Hunter and temper our expectations to just hoping he can play.

We will have people who are down now spend the summer finding ways to convince themselves of reasons we should win 23 to 25 games and then will take those rosiest of predictions and make them their baseline.  I want to see improvement in intensity and I want to make the tournament.  I think expecting much more than that is setting oneself up for disappointment.

[3Ballin]

My expectations for next year are for a perfect season!!  I'm already having the 40-0 shirts printed up.

Best case, we actually do go 40-0.  Worst case, all those poor kids in africa get to stop wearing all that ugly pUKe crap!!  👍👍😁😁

[BGleas]

I can't believe I'm going to be the negative one. I like Devonte Green, was a little disappointed he didn't turn the corner earlier this year, but I was a supporter of his, especially earlier in his career. With that said, I think a team that is led in scoring by Green at 12-13ppg is going to be a pretty mediocre team. I see that team at best being a bubble team, scraping to get into the tournament. 

[NotIThatLives]

14 minutes ago, BGleas said:

I can't believe I'm going to be the negative one. I like Devonte Green, was a little disappointed he didn't turn the corner earlier this year, but I was a supporter of his, especially earlier in his career. With that said, I think a team that is led in scoring by Green at 12-13ppg is going to be a pretty mediocre team. I see that team at best being a bubble team, scraping to get into the tournament. 

Probably just not a tourney team regardless of balance in scoring and a top 30 defense.   

I'm still holding on to the hope of adding one more starter material player.  

[rico]

4 hours ago, IUCrazy2 said:

Can I be a bit of a stick in the mud regarding Hunter?  He is coming back from an injury that kept him not only from playing for the year but also limited in practice.  We spent all of last summer hyping up just how great Langford was going to be and when he came in and was just "pretty good", it made for quite a bit more angst about how the team performed.  Hunter is starting to get the same mythological build up before any of us have ever really seen him play.  Let's pump the brakes a bit on Hunter and temper our expectations to just hoping he can play.

We will have people who are down now spend the summer finding ways to convince themselves of reasons we should win 23 to 25 games and then will take those rosiest of predictions and make them their baseline.  I want to see improvement in intensity and I want to make the tournament.  I think expecting much more than that is setting oneself up for disappointment.

Stick in the mud or not(which is fine) Hoosier Nation is watching Hunter.  Doesn't matter if the hype is founded or unfounded.  GTG or not.  He will garner discussion.

[IUCrazy2]

2 minutes ago, rico said:

Stick in the mud or not(which is fine) Hoosier Nation is watching Hunter.  Doesn't matter if the hype is founded or unfounded.  GTG or not.  He will garner discussion.

No, I understand discussion but I have seen some comments where people seem to think he is going to come in and be as good as Romeo based off a quote from a player in early practices.

Discuss away, just don't build up an expectation around the guy that is going to unfairly set him up for "failure".

He is like the second string QB that everyone has heard was great in practice, they think they got the next Tom Brady sitting on the bench when in reality they may just have a fairly solid player.  When you expect great and get good, it leads to disappointment.  I just want a little more cautious optimism about a guy who is apparently coming back from surgery for a freak condition.

[rico]

2 minutes ago, IUCrazy2 said:

No, I understand discussion but I have seen some comments where people seem to think he is going to come in and be as good as Romeo based off a quote from a player in early practices.

Discuss away, just don't build up an expectation around the guy that is going to unfairly set him up for "failure".

Fair enough, but every kid that comes in has expectations around him.  It wasn't just Romeo. Hunter is unique in the fact that he sat out his frosh year...but that has happened before as well at IU.

[Billingsley99]

This year I had such high expectations and was let down. Next year I expect us to be bottom half of the conference and NIT bound

[IU Scott]

1 minute ago, Billingsley99 said:

This year I had such high expectations and was let down. Next year I expect us to be bottom half of the conference and NIT bound

Going into this season I thought we would finish in the top 5 of the conference and make the tournament and with a chance for the sweet 16.  Well I think we would had a chance of that if every thing went right and we did not have all the injuries and the supposed chemistry problem we had.  Next year it is to early to really know what to expect but right now I would think we would finish  around 7-9 in the conference but who knows what will happen.  To me MSU, Iowa and Maryland should be way better than the rest of the conference with PU and UM as the next tier.  UM will be hard to figure out since they lost a lot but they still have some good pieces coming back.

[Zuckerkorn]

48 minutes ago, IUCrazy2 said:

No, I understand discussion but I have seen some comments where people seem to think he is going to come in and be as good as Romeo based off a quote from a player in early practices.

Discuss away, just don't build up an expectation around the guy that is going to unfairly set him up for "failure".

He is like the second string QB that everyone has heard was great in practice, they think they got the next Tom Brady sitting on the bench when in reality they may just have a fairly solid player.  When you expect great and get good, it leads to disappointment.  I just want a little more cautious optimism about a guy who is apparently coming back from surgery for a freak condition.

I tend to agree with both of you - JH will have expectations AND carry a huge question mark (medical condition not withstanding, just like any heralded incoming player).  The lack of competition compounds things, but the positive, if the issue is under control, is that he isn't going through a rehab like Davis just did or Mo Creek had to.

[rico]

6 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

Going into this season I thought we would finish in the top 5 of the conference and make the tournament and with a chance for the sweet 16.  Well I think we would had a chance of that if every thing went right and we did not have all the injuries and the supposed chemistry problem we had.  Next year it is to early to really know what to expect but right now I would think we would finish  around 7-9 in the conference but who knows what will happen.  To me MSU, Iowa and Maryland should be way better than the rest of the conference with PU and UM as the next tier.  UM will be hard to figure out since they lost a lot but they still have some good pieces coming back.

Good take Scott and I am right there with you.  And I will add Purdue scares me a bunch.  They are pretty much going through next year just as they did this year.  The Boilers do have guys that are ready to step into starting roles that saw considerable time this year.  Add to it that Newman is coming in as well.  

[jblaz13]

6 hours ago, IUCrazy2 said:

Can I be a bit of a stick in the mud regarding Hunter?  He is coming back from an injury that kept him not only from playing for the year but also limited in practice.  We spent all of last summer hyping up just how great Langford was going to be and when he came in and was just "pretty good", it made for quite a bit more angst about how the team performed.  Hunter is starting to get the same mythological build up before any of us have ever really seen him play.  Let's pump the brakes a bit on Hunter and temper our expectations to just hoping he can play.

We will have people who are down now spend the summer finding ways to convince themselves of reasons we should win 23 to 25 games and then will take those rosiest of predictions and make them their baseline.  I want to see improvement in intensity and I want to make the tournament.  I think expecting much more than that is setting oneself up for disappointment.

Fair enough for now . Proximity to the situation must rank low on your list for criteria when it comes to how far to go with taking opinions at face value?  Lol Seems that way with Hunter based your own comments. 

I would take his teammates' word - the guys he had to earn the respect of himself - over any Tom, Dick, or Harry's impression any day of the week!  For what it's worth.. 

Since part of the context of the comments praising him early on also included suggesting how maturely he accepted teaching ,I'm sticking to my guns here. That year of watching can do wonders for some kids. The thing is not all high level kids who are largely expected to come in and contribute right away, end up sitting.

So in many instances , we don;t get to see how much they might have benefited  from sitting

Expectations in park for now.  All gas pedal on the excitement!!!