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2023-24 Big 10 Predictions


IUFLA

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I want to preface this by saying that I don't do this (or the Pre Games for that matter) because I think I'm an "expert." I'm a Big 10 basketball fan, and it's simply an opinion after watching a lot of Big 10 games. I don't think evaluating basketball potential or talent is rocket science...

I do it because I like to contribute to the site, and because it spurs discussion while we wait for 18 years olds to check "Do you like me?" boxes :) ...Anyway, here's my opinion for 2023-24...

1.Purdue

Best Returning Player: Zach Edey

Has to Make a Jump: Caleb Furst

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Myles Colvin (FR)

2.Michigan State

Best Returning Player: Tyson Walker

Has to Make a Jump: Jaxson Kohler

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Xavier Booker (FR)

3.Indiana

Best Returning Player: Xavier Johnson

Has to Make a Jump: Malik Reneau

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Kel’el Ware (Portal)

4.Iowa

Best Returning Player: Tony Perkins

Has to Make a Jump: Payton Sandfort

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ben Krikke (Portal)

5.Illinois

Best Returning Player: Terrance Shannon Jr

Has to Make a Jump: Ty Rogers

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Quincy Guerrier (Portal)

6.Ohio State

Best Returning Player: Bruce Thornton

Has to Make a Jump: Roddy Gayle

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Jamison Battle (Portal)

7.Maryland

Best Returning Player: Jahmir Young

Has to Make a Jump: Jordan Geronimo

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: DeShawn Harris-Smith (FR)

8.Wisconsin

Best Returning Player: Tyler Wahl

Has to Make a Jump: Connor Essegian

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: AJ Storr (Portal)

9.Northwestern

Best Returning Player: Boo Buie

Has to Make a Jump: Brooks Barnhizer

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ryan Langborg (Portal)

10.Nebraska

Best Returning Player: Keisei Tominaga

Has to Make a Jump: Jamarques Lawrence

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Brice Williams (Portal)

11.Michigan

Best Returning Player: Dug McDaniel

Has to Make a Jump: Tarris Reed Jr

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Nimari Burnett (Portal)

12.Rutgers

Best Returning Player: Cliff Omoroyi

Has to Make a Jump: Derek Simpson

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Noah Fernandes (Portal)

13.Penn State

Best Returning Player: Kanye Clary

Has to Make a Jump: Puff Johnson

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ace Baldwin Jr (Portal)

14.Minnesota

Best Returning Player: Dawson Garcia

Has to Make a Jump: Pharrel Payne

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Mike Mitchell Jr. (Portal)

Edited by IUFLA
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17 minutes ago, 02Hoosier said:

Anyone think Purdue overachieved last year and won’t win the conference this year?

Yeah, a little, but Edey was a matchup nightmare for most teams, and in most games they hit their shots... in the ones they don't, they get beat... 

14 minutes ago, Hoosierfan1901 said:

Why is IU not number 1? Going to win the natty this year anyways. Hoosiers by a million

I tried to be honest about it... I really think we could wind up anywhere from 1st to 9th... 

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The big difference I see this year compared with last (individual talent aside), is the overall depth of the squad. And I should probably further clarify that I'm comparing both teams relative to the same point of the year (pre-season expectations).

Last year at this time, most people discussed the seemingly deep team we had on paper and how so many people were going to get minutes. Ultimately, I don't think we were quite as deep as we thought -- final production considered.

Looking at this year's team, at first blush it doesn't look anywhere near as deep, with around 6-7 players that would be awarded *high* confidence and another 2-3 that are intriguing, but not likely major contributors.

Now, I'm not necessarily knocking this. Perhaps this tighter rotation proves more beneficial as the guys know where they are and roles are accepted. I'm really interested to see how these new roles are stepped into, and how the overall chemistry of this unit plays out. Teams have won big with just 6-7 before.

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While it would be terrific if we competed for the B1G title, I just think the odds are pretty small given 10 new players on the roster this year.

I suspect Woody will be testing a LOT of different lineups looking for the "magic sauce" that we need on a consistent basis. IF he can find that early on, and we continue to develop as the season progresses, we might be knocking on the door. But that's a lot of IF's.

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31 minutes ago, Dawg Bawls said:

No way Boo Buie is back ... Hes like 43...I guess he's on the Bohanan plan 

Oh, but he is!

Strange thing, Buie has never had to face Xavier Johnson while X has been at IU (did face him twice when XJ was at Pitt)... first year X was at IU, he was one of the "Windy City 5" in our only game we played against the Wildcats, and last year he was injured for both games... 

Edited by IUFLA
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On 9/22/2023 at 3:30 PM, IUFLA said:

I want to preface this by saying that I don't do this (or the Pre Games for that matter) because I think I'm an "expert." I'm a Big 10 basketball fan, and it's simply an opinion after watching a lot of Big 10 games. I don't think evaluating basketball potential or talent is rocket science...

I do it because I like to contribute to the site, and because it spurs discussion while we wait for 18 years olds to check "Do you like me?" boxes :) ...Anyway, here's my opinion for 2023-24...

1.Purdue

Best Returning Player: Zach Edey

Has to Make a Jump: Caleb Furst

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Myles Colvin (FR)

2.Michigan State

Best Returning Player: Tyson Walker

Has to Make a Jump: Jaxson Kohler

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Xavier Booker (FR)

3.Indiana

Best Returning Player: Xavier Johnson

Has to Make a Jump: Malik Reneau

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Kel’el Ware (Portal)

4.Iowa

Best Returning Player: Tony Perkins

Has to Make a Jump: Payton Sandfort

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ben Krikke (Portal)

5.Illinois

Best Returning Player: Terrance Shannon Jr

Has to Make a Jump: Ty Rogers

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Quincy Guerrier (Portal)

6.Ohio State

Best Returning Player: Bruce Thornton

Has to Make a Jump: Roddy Gayle

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Jamison Battle (Portal)

7.Maryland

Best Returning Player: Jahmir Young

Has to Make a Jump: Jordan Geronimo

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: DeShawn Harris-Smith (FR)

8.Wisconsin

Best Returning Player: Tyler Wahl

Has to Make a Jump: Connor Essegian

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: AJ Storr (Portal)

9.Northwestern

Best Returning Player: Boo Buie

Has to Make a Jump: Brooks Barnhizer

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ryan Langborg (Portal)

10.Nebraska

Best Returning Player: Keisei Tominaga

Has to Make a Jump: Jamarques Lawrence

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Brice Williams (Portal)

11.Michigan

Best Returning Player: Dug McDaniel

Has to Make a Jump: Tarris Reed Jr

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Nimari Burnett (Portal)

12.Rutgers

Best Returning Player: Cliff Omoroyi

Has to Make a Jump: Derek Simpson

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Noah Fernandes (Portal)

13.Penn State

Best Returning Player: Kanye Clary

Has to Make a Jump: Puff Johnson

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Ace Baldwin Jr (Portal)

14.Minnesota

Best Returning Player: Dawson Garcia

Has to Make a Jump: Pharrel Payne

Newcomer That Has to Make a Difference: Mike Mitchell Jr. (Portal)

I think Purdue/Sparty are clearly the favorites. After that we have 5-6 teams including us that could be anywhere from 3-8 or so. Depends on schedule and development of new pieces by the staffs. Overall a great list and breakdown. Thanks for adding!

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30 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

No.  But if you want to give money away, put it on Illinois.  

Can you explain why they are getting so much love?  You know them more than anyone.   I love your 2 guard.  But that's a pretty flawed roster.  

I think it's because Brad Underwood is a Hall of Fame level coach.  :coffee:

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4 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

No.  But if you want to give money away, put it on Illinois.  

Can you explain why they are getting so much love?  You know them more than anyone.   I love your 2 guard.  But that's a pretty flawed roster.  

I think it's kind of like IU last year. They were pre-season favorites because they had most of the team back from the previous season. Once you get past Purdue and MSU, Illinois probably brings back more of their key guys from last season than most teams. A lot of the early predictive metrics like them as well:

https://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

As I said elsewhere, I think they will be really good on D and in transition. The half-court offense is the big unknown due to the question regarding PG. And yeah that's a big one, really hurt them last year as well.

All of the teams in that middle pack have some question marks which is why they're not up there with MSU and Purdue.

 

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4 hours ago, BruceDouglas said:

I think it's kind of like IU last year. They were pre-season favorites because they had most of the team back from the previous season. Once you get past Purdue and MSU, Illinois probably brings back more of their key guys from last season than most teams. A lot of the early predictive metrics like them as well:

https://www.barttorvik.com/trankpre.php

As I said elsewhere, I think they will be really good on D and in transition. The half-court offense is the big unknown due to the question regarding PG. And yeah that's a big one, really hurt them last year as well.

All of the teams in that middle pack have some question marks which is why they're not up there with MSU and Purdue.

 

Terrance Shannon is likely 1st team lock.  I am utterly confused on the Hawkins love.  So what he's 6'10", he shoots 28% from 3.  Dianja is the only true beef on the interior?

Is your transfer class one of the best in the nation?  Doesn't look like clear cut high end B1G talent but 2 maybe 3 solid pieces.  

Is the Italian kid any good?  Maybe he's a filthy baller.  

Idk, most likely it's just how bad the B1G is this year.  

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8 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Terrance Shannon is likely 1st team lock.  I am utterly confused on the Hawkins love.  So what he's 6'10", he shoots 28% from 3.  Dianja is the only true beef on the interior?

Is your transfer class one of the best in the nation?  Doesn't look like clear cut high end B1G talent but 2 maybe 3 solid pieces.  

Is the Italian kid any good?  Maybe he's a filthy baller.  

Idk, most likely it's just how bad the B1G is this year.  

Never much impressed with Coleman Hawkins.  Seems like a fair amount of hype without much to back it up.  Maybe I missed all his good games, but meh from what I saw.

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15 hours ago, NotIThatLives said:

Terrance Shannon is likely 1st team lock.  I am utterly confused on the Hawkins love.  So what he's 6'10", he shoots 28% from 3.  Dianja is the only true beef on the interior?

Is your transfer class one of the best in the nation?  Doesn't look like clear cut high end B1G talent but 2 maybe 3 solid pieces.  

Is the Italian kid any good?  Maybe he's a filthy baller.  

Idk, most likely it's just how bad the B1G is this year.  

Hawkins is a very good defender, certainly has his issues on offense. Guerrier can play inside if they go with a small lineup. And there's top 50 frosh Hansberry. Not quite as many 4s as IU, but there is some size.

I wouldn't rank the transfer class very highly nationally but they did add some good pieces.

Moretti could really help run the offense but isn't ready to guard anyone at this level yet.

Agree the Big Ten doesn't look at that strong but lots of intriguing teams IMO.

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