Coronavirus

[5fouls]

A lot of discussion about the post-holiday surge.  I did some very unscientific research on the Post-Thanksgiving surge.  One thing I found very interesting is that many states actually peaked BEFORE Thanksgiving.  Obviously, the overall numbers for the U.S. surged in December, but it's not universal across all regions of the country.

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming all peaked before Thanksgiving, and have consistently declining numbers since..  There may be others, but I didn't look up every state.  

So much attention is being given to holiday gatherings, but for many states, there were definitely other factors at work as well.  At first glance, since all these states are geographically connected, could weather be a factor?

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by 5fouls

[Reacher]

37 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

A lot of discussion about the post-holiday surge.  I did some very unscientific research on the Post-Thanksgiving surge.  One thing I found very interesting is that many states actually peaked BEFORE Thanksgiving.  Obviously, the overall numbers for the U.S. surged in December, but it's not universal across all regions of the country.

Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming all peaked before Thanksgiving, and have consistently declining numbers since..  There may be others, but I didn't look up every state.  

So much attention is being given to holiday gatherings, but for many states, there were definitely other factors at work as well.  At first glance, since all these states are geographically connected, could weather be a factor?

 

I have seen some graphs that do show that decline starting before Thanksgiving. It does not look like there was a post Thanksgiving surge as had been feared. We'll see in a few weeks if that holds true for Christmas as well.

On a separate note- there was a study in the JAMA- https://web.archive.org/web/20201228014030if_/https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2774102 that shows that -

Households are favorable environments for transmission.

Spouses were at higher risk than other family contacts.

The finding that secondary attack rates were higher to adult contacts than to child contacts is consistent with empirical and modeling studies.^99,100 Lower infection rates in children may be attributed to asymptomatic or mild disease, reduced susceptibility from cross-immunity from other coronaviruses,¹⁰¹ and low case ascertainment,¹⁰² but the difference persisted in studies in which all contacts were tested regardless of symptoms.

We found significantly higher secondary attack rates from symptomatic index cases than asymptomatic or presymptomatic index cases, although less data were available on the latter. The lack of substantial transmission from observed asymptomatic index cases is notable.

 

If you are symptom free, risks to others appears minimal. Especially from children. I wish teachers and school districts would push to get kids back in school full time. 

[Reacher]

CA now nations hotspot- https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-COVID-19-cases-data-CDC-worst-states-US-15829422.php. Lockdown doesn't seen to be helping-

The state is posting the country's worst COVID-19 numbers despite a new stay-at-home order that took effect in most of the state in early December. Cellphone data suggests compliance is low, and some have speculated the state's strict restrictions contributed to the winter explosion.

https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/California-COVID-lockdown-cases-deaths-businesses-15819841.php

 

[Reacher]

20% off in Washington, 40% off in MN? Seems like there are new examples every week.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/coronavirus-death-certificates-minnesota-inflated

Why were the rules changed for classifying deaths this year? 

[Lostin76]

We drove into Manhattan today to go the Whitney and have lunch. The museum was timed entry, so pretty quiet. It’s right next to the High Line, so we went up to the High Line and walked about twenty blocks north. It was also timed entry, but they had employees stationed regularly to remind people to raise their masks. 

As we were driving home on Broadway, Soho (I call it hell) was jam-packed with tourists. Like easily as busy as a summer weekend day. The line for H&M was a block long. It’s just so weird to see so many people not bothering with masks.

I know it sounds like I hate tourists, but it’s really that I hate Manhattan and that’s where all the tourists congregate. I love seeing tourists and visitors here in real NYC, just not Soho and places like that. Too many people and way too crowded.

One neat thing about our lunch place - it was Japanese and we dined outdoors. They had a really nice setup with each table isolated from the others with tall dividers. But THE thing that blew my mind was that my seat (basically a wooden box) was really warm. Like REALLY warm. I mentioned it to my wife and she had  just happened to see them bring out a huge hot rock on a tray to another table they were setting up. They put the hot rock under the wooden seat and then covered the seat back up. Instant warm seat - genius! 

 

[Leathernecks]

50 minutes ago, Reacher said:

20% off in Washington, 40% off in MN? Seems like there are new examples every week.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/coronavirus-death-certificates-minnesota-inflated

Why were the rules changed for classifying deaths this year? 

Curious if you think the numbers in Florida are accurate?  They've been trying to cover up their deaths all along.  It goes both ways, and the overall numbers are generally in the ballpark.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Leathernecks

[5fouls]

Not taking sides here, but in reading the link Reacher provided, this is not just idle politicking going on here.  Here are some specific excerpts from the article.  Yes.  People die of Covid.  But people who drown and people that are ejected from a car should NOT be counted as Covid deaths.

And, before the source is questioned.  No, you won't see a story like this in the Washington Post or the New York Times.  But, that's part of the problem.  Those are mainstream media sources that lie to us, or twist information,  just as much as non main street media does in order to support their own agenda.  both sides just need to tell the truth, but that will never happen. 

State Rep. Mary Franson and state Sen. Scott Jensen released a video last week revealing that after reviewing thousands of death certificates in the state, 40% did not have COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death.

“I have other examples where COVID isn’t the underlying cause of death, where we have a fall. Another example is we have a freshwater drowning. We have dementia. We have a stroke and multiorgan failure,” Franson said in the video.

She added that in one case, a person who was ejected from a car was “counted as a COVID death” because the virus was in his system.

[Lostin76]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Not taking sides here, but in reading the link Reacher provided, this is not just idle politicking going on here.  Here are some specific excerpts from the article.  Yes.  People die of Covid.  But people who drown and people that are ejected from a car should NOT be counted as Covid deaths.

And, before the source is questioned.  No, you won't see a story like this in the Washington Post or the New York Times.  But, that's part of the problem.  Those are mainstream media sources that lie to us, or twist information,  just as much as non main street media does in order to support their own agenda.  both sides just need to tell the truth, but that will never happen. 

State Rep. Mary Franson and state Sen. Scott Jensen released a video last week revealing that after reviewing thousands of death certificates in the state, 40% did not have COVID-19 as the underlying cause of death.

“I have other examples where COVID isn’t the underlying cause of death, where we have a fall. Another example is we have a freshwater drowning. We have dementia. We have a stroke and multiorgan failure,” Franson said in the video.

She added that in one case, a person who was ejected from a car was “counted as a COVID death” because the virus was in his system.

I’m sorry Fouls, but I have to call foul on this one. You can’t really think WP and NYT lie or twist information as much as the source you linked in your post? Seriously? The NYT actually publishes corrections daily if they’ve messed something up. I have nothing to say about the source you posted beyond this screen capture below.

The stories on the right hand side are hilarious - like MAD Magazine levels of idiocy, but they think it’s real. Terrifying. 

 

[5fouls]

22 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

Curious if you think the numbers in Florida are accurate?  They've been trying to cover up their deaths all along.  It goes both ways, and the overall numbers are generally in the ballpark.

According to Worldometer (which is used by Johns Hopkins), Florida has the 21st highest death rate with 992 deaths per 1 million population  Here are some other states.

Texas - 938 per million (27th highest)

California - 618 per million (40th highest)

Ohio - - 733 per million (36th highest)

.United States Coronavirus: 19,723,608 Cases and 342,728 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

This may be another case of the media trying to conjure up a story that really isn't there.

 

  

[5fouls]

8 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I’m sorry Fouls, but I have to call foul on this one. You can’t really think WP and NYT lie or twist information as much as the source you linked in your post? Seriously? The NYT actually publishes corrections daily if they’ve messed something up. I have nothing to say about the source you posted beyond this screen capture below.

The stories on the right hand side are hilarious - like MAD Magazine levels of idiocy, but they think it’s real. Terrifying. 

 

You're not displaying the story that I was referencing.  It may be the same general content, but it is not the source I was referencing.  The story I am referencing does not have those other items on the side that you have pasted.

Minnesota lawmakers say coronavirus deaths could be inflated by 40% after reviewing death certificates (washingtonexaminer.com)

 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by 5fouls

[Lostin76]

1 minute ago, 5fouls said:

You're not displaying the story that I was referencing.  It may be the same general content, but it is not the source I was referencing.  The story I am referencing does not have those other items on the side that you have pasted.

Minnesota lawmakers say coronavirus deaths could be inflated by 40% after reviewing death certificates (washingtonexaminer.com)

 

 

Sorry, I just clicked the link that you provided in your post. But I honestly don’t need to see anything else from that source. I can’t believe that it’s come to this that we will entertain links to stuff like this just to try to support our own beliefs about this horrible, messed up thing that we are all facing. How can we take sources like this seriously? I mean I read the New York Post and Daily News sometimes for the hahas, but it’s not actual news. Whatever happened to factchecking? 

I’m serious here. There’s a fascinating New Yorker pieces from a few years ago that details just how intense their fac-checking is. Do these weirdo sites even understand the concept? 

I see so many complaints about “the media,” but glomming onto complete trash websites like this is not helping matters. 

[Lostin76]

15 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

You're not displaying the story that I was referencing.  It may be the same general content, but it is not the source I was referencing.  The story I am referencing does not have those other items on the side that you have pasted.

Minnesota lawmakers say coronavirus deaths could be inflated by 40% after reviewing death certificates (washingtonexaminer.com)

 

 

And I looked up the MN politician leading that effort in MN. He’s a fan of Dr.  Zelenko apparently. Sure, that’s legit. 

 

[Joe_Hoopsier]

Bought time to shut "Lost" down, don't ya think? The reason is obvious.

 

[5fouls]

I'm going to keep up my little media rant for one more post.  And, I'm very interested in the thoughts of those of you that don't question the media have to say about this.

When cases were surging in the Dakotas and the rest of the upper Midwest, we were inundated with headlines screaming about it.  I visit cnn.com daily and saw headline after headline stating things like 14 STATES SET NEW DAILY CASE RECORDS.  The headlines were intended to incite fear.  

Now, today, the headlines are all about concerns over a holiday induced spike.  However, as I referenced above, in the same part of the country that was getting all the attention 2-3 months ago, cases have been going down since BEFORE the holiday season.  Yet, no mention of that anywhere,     

I was watching Good Morning America this morning and a gentleman being interviewed mentioned the progress in the upper Midwest, and the GMA host said something like "I want to talk about what's going on in California'.  It was almost like the speaker wasn't allowed to talk about anything positive. or more likely, something that contradicted the narrative that the media has been spinning.  

Here is the link where you can look up the numbers for individual states.  Simply click on the link for each state and look at the graphs for 7 day moving averages,  You'll see that the states I referenced above all peaked before Thanksgiving.

United States Coronavirus: 19,723,608 Cases and 342,728 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

[Leathernecks]

7 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

Sorry, I just clicked the link that you provided in your post. But I honestly don’t need to see anything else from that source. I can’t believe that it’s come to this that we will entertain links to stuff like this just to try to support our own beliefs about this horrible, messed up thing that we are all facing. How can we take sources like this seriously? I mean I read the New York Post and Daily News sometimes for the hahas, but it’s not actual news. Whatever happened to factchecking? 

I’m serious here. There’s a fascinating New Yorker pieces from a few years ago that details just how intense their fac-checking is. Do these weirdo sites even understand the concept? 

I see so many complaints about “the media,” but glomming onto complete trash websites like this is not helping matters. 

And the people who claim it is up to 40% are the people from crazy websites who checked into the data.  We're supposed to just take their word for it?

Did you know that last year 40% of Purdue’s shots went in by luck? I went back through all their shots, and they banked in a 3, they had one that bounced off a guys hand, and other examples I won't get into.  Just trust me that it's up to 40%.

I have no doubt that there are deaths reported as Covid deaths that shouldn't be. Say it is 10%. That's still over 300,000 deaths.  Even if it was 40%, that's still 200,000 deaths.

[Leathernecks]

31 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

According to Worldometer (which is used by Johns Hopkins), Florida has the 21st highest death rate with 992 deaths per 1 million population  Here are some other states.

Texas - 938 per million (27th highest)

California - 618 per million (40th highest)

Ohio - - 733 per million (36th highest)

.United States Coronavirus: 19,723,608 Cases and 342,728 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

This may be another case of the media trying to conjure up a story that really isn't there.

 

  

Pretty much the whole time Florida has had few restrictions, so it makes sense that they should have high rates.  I think it is pretty obvious Florida has tried to cover up some of their numbers. Don't care enough to link one of the 700 articles out there about it.

[Lostin76]

4 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I'm going to keep up my little media rant for one more post.  And, I'm very interested in the thoughts of those of you that don't question the media have to say about this.

When cases were surging in the Dakotas and the rest of the upper Midwest, we were inundated with headlines screaming about it.  I visit cnn.com daily and saw headline after headline stating things like 14 STATES SET NEW DAILY CASE RECORDS.  The headlines were intended to incite fear.  

Now, today, the headlines are all about concerns over a holiday induced spike.  However, as I referenced above, in the same part of the country that was getting all the attention 2-3 months ago, cases have been going down since BEFORE the holiday season.  Yet, no mention of that anywhere,     

I was watching Good Morning America this morning and a gentleman being interviewed mentioned the progress in the upper Midwest, and the GMA host said something like "I want to talk about what's going on in California'.  It was almost like the speaker wasn't allowed to talk about anything positive. or more likely, something that contradicted the narrative that the media has been spinning.  

Here is the link where you can look up the numbers for individual states.  Simply click on the link for each state and look at the graphs for 7 day moving averages,  You'll see that the states I referenced above all peaked before Thanksgiving.

United States Coronavirus: 19,723,608 Cases and 342,728 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

I popped back in here to say that I’m sorry if I came off harshly against you Fouls, that wasn’t my intent to attack the messenger. So, I’m sorry if I came off harshly against you, it was just the link you posted that was annoying.

As far as media goes, maybe less media consumption is in order? I couldn’t watch CNN or MSNBC for more than a minute without throwing my TV or laptop out the window. They just want clicks and mindless eyeballs. Same with FOX and other networks. They are all desperate to keep you outraged and tuning in. Their livelihoods depend on it. 

They are rolling in our misery and attention like pigs in mud. 

[5fouls]

6 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

And I looked up the MN politician leading that effort in MN. He’s a fan of Dr.  Zelenko apparently. Sure, that’s legit. 

 

I think we need to avoid looking at WHO is saying it and look more at WHAT is being said.  Throughout all of this, I've never used what someone like AOC or Bernie Sanders said to prove a point.  Bottom line is that if a person drowned or was ejected from a car, they did not die of Covid.  It doesn't matter whether Scott Jansen or Hubert Humphrey said it.  If it's true those deaths were counted, that's open for ridicule.  

[Leathernecks]

8 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

I'm going to keep up my little media rant for one more post.  And, I'm very interested in the thoughts of those of you that don't question the media have to say about this.

When cases were surging in the Dakotas and the rest of the upper Midwest, we were inundated with headlines screaming about it.  I visit cnn.com daily and saw headline after headline stating things like 14 STATES SET NEW DAILY CASE RECORDS.  The headlines were intended to incite fear.  

Now, today, the headlines are all about concerns over a holiday induced spike.  However, as I referenced above, in the same part of the country that was getting all the attention 2-3 months ago, cases have been going down since BEFORE the holiday season.  Yet, no mention of that anywhere,     

I was watching Good Morning America this morning and a gentleman being interviewed mentioned the progress in the upper Midwest, and the GMA host said something like "I want to talk about what's going on in California'.  It was almost like the speaker wasn't allowed to talk about anything positive. or more likely, something that contradicted the narrative that the media has been spinning.  

Here is the link where you can look up the numbers for individual states.  Simply click on the link for each state and look at the graphs for 7 day moving averages,  You'll see that the states I referenced above all peaked before Thanksgiving.

United States Coronavirus: 19,723,608 Cases and 342,728 Deaths - Worldometer (worldometers.info)

I don't necessarily disagree with you about the media, but that doesn't mean we have to jump off the deep end and find crazy articles on the other side of things. There's a middle ground that far too few people live in.

[Lostin76]

Just now, 5fouls said:

I think we need to avoid looking at WHO is saying it and look more at WHAT is being said.  Throughout all of this, I've never used what someone like AOC or Bernie Sanders said to prove a point.  Bottom line is that if a person drowned or was ejected from a car, they did not die of Covid.  It doesn't matter whether Scott Jansen or Hubert Humphrey said it.  If it's true those deaths were counted, that's open for ridicule.  

I wouldn’t use something said by Bernie or AOC either if it’s any comfort. I agree with someone being ejected by a car not being counted as a COVID death, but I also agree with @Leathernecksabove about Florida underreporting. 

In the end, it simply does not matter to me the degree that we screwed the pooch on this. We. Screwed. The. Pooch. It’s insane that we as a nation can’t get our shit together and slow this down. But sure, let’s let crazy politicians try to undermine the effects of a deadly pandemic just to prop up our horrible record. 

[Reacher]

1 hour ago, Leathernecks said:

Curious if you think the numbers in Florida are accurate?  They've been trying to cover up their deaths all along.  It goes both ways, and the overall numbers are generally in the ballpark.

I haven't seen any articles on FL stats

[5fouls]

8 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I popped back in here to say that I’m sorry if I came off harshly against you Fouls, that wasn’t my intent to attack the messenger. So, I’m sorry if I came off harshly against you, it was just the link you posted that was annoying.

As far as media goes, maybe less media consumption is in order? I couldn’t watch CNN or MSNBC for more than a minute without throwing my TV or laptop out the window. They just want clicks and mindless eyeballs. Same with FOX and other networks. They are all desperate to keep you outraged and tuning in. Their livelihoods depend on it. 

They are rolling in our misery and attention like pigs in mud. 

It's all good.  I just find it interesting that 95% of the American people believe that a certain politician or a certain media source is only reliable if they say something that agrees with their own set of beliefs.  I can't help but laugh and shake my head at those people that are flooding social media with criticism of Fox News for 'selling out' because some of their personalities shifted a bit towards the middle after the election.  What we need is for the extremists on each side to make a similar shift towards the middle.  

The American people need begin demanding the truth, or we will never be what we could be as a nation.   

[Reacher]

58 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I’m sorry Fouls, but I have to call foul on this one. You can’t really think WP and NYT lie or twist information as much as the source you linked in your post? Seriously? The NYT actually publishes corrections daily if they’ve messed something up. I have nothing to say about the source you posted beyond this screen capture below.

The stories on the right hand side are hilarious - like MAD Magazine levels of idiocy, but they think it’s real. Terrifying. 

 

What you are missing are the stories the NYT times decides aren't newsworthy enough for you to know about. We all know that every media site has a bias. It is important to recognize that and I just don't get the mentality of not listening to a source because of some preconceived notion. I read / watch as much CNN as Fox and make up my own mind as to the veracity.

[5fouls]

16 minutes ago, Leathernecks said:

I don't necessarily disagree with you about the media, but that doesn't mean we have to jump off the deep end and find crazy articles on the other side of things. There's a middle ground that far too few people live in.

I don't necessarily consider an article that questions why a drowning or auto accident victim is considered a Covid death as 'crazy'.  It's honestly no different than questioning Florida if they have been sweeping deaths under the rug.  

I mean, if Weird Al Yankovic said the sky was blue and Albert Einstein said it was orange, should we all automatically accept it was orange based on the reputations of the two people that were saying it?

[Lostin76]

5 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

It's all good.  I just find it interesting that 95% of the American people believe that a certain politician or a certain media source is only reliable if they say something that agrees with their own set of beliefs.  I can't help but laugh and shake my head at those people that are flooding social media with criticism of Fox News for 'selling out' because some of their personalities shifted a bit towards the middle after the election.  What we need is for the extremists on each side to make a similar shift towards the middle.  

The American people need begin demanding the truth, or we will never be what we could be as a nation.   

Totally in agreement about extremists on both sides. Haven’t been, since I was an ignorant teenager, attracted to super far left media. I can’t watch any network TV news w/o retching.