5fouls Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 32 minutes ago, btownqb said: I like it, for the most part, honestly. You shouldn't drop just because you lose. That's why the polls are so awful, sometimes. If you lose a game, your ranking shouldn't automatically drop. 28 minutes ago, IUJoe said: I agree. You shouldn’t drop if you lose to someone ranked ahead of you, unless it is really ugly. The computer result-based rankings generally are better at reflecting what you and I believe than are the human polls. With the exception of Purdue. When they lose, they should be dropped to NAIA. 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceDouglas Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, rogue3542 said: As I saw it explained elsewhere, it's also because Kenpom is more an efficiency metric than a wins and losses metric, so, even though OSU lost five straight, they were within the "safe" margin that Kenpom predicted them to be in within those games, so it doesn't hurt their ranking as much. Basically, from the way I understand it, as long as you outperform what Kenpom "predicts" your performance to be, you'll "improve" in the metric. So if you're expected to lose by 10, and you lose by 5, you're more likely to move up than down. I could be wrong, but I saw that explanation, and it makes sense given OSU's seeming inability to be affected by those rankings. Plus, we have several double digit losses, and OSU only has one. I am far from an expert on this but makes me wonder if models like Kenpom favor offensive efficiency a bit too much. Because Ohio St has a really efficient offense, still ranked #7. And there's a bunch of stats/data you can use for offense - shooting %, 2 point %, offensive rebounds, FT %, etc. And IMO this type of data tracking relative to efficiency is pretty well understood and researched. Whereas defense doesn't really track with a bunch of stats or data, just really how much you can limit the other team on some of those same #s. Rebounds is one major stat but steals, blocked shots don't necessarily indicate good defense. Just a idle thought... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kdug Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, BruceDouglas said: I am far from an expert on this but makes me wonder if models like Kenpom favor offensive efficiency a bit too much. Because Ohio St has a really efficient offense, still ranked #7. And there's a bunch of stats/data you can use for offense - shooting %, 2 point %, offensive rebounds, FT %, etc. And IMO this type of data tracking relative to efficiency is pretty well understood and researched. Whereas defense doesn't really track with a bunch of stats or data, just really how much you can limit the other team on some of those same #s. Rebounds is one major stat but steals, blocked shots don't necessarily indicate good defense. Just a idle thought... The way offensive and defensive efficiency is calculated at the team level is the same in efficiency metrics, points scored or given up divided by the number of possessions, weighted based on quality of opponent. Rebounding, 2P%, 3P%, etc will obviously impact how good a team is on offense or defense, but ultimately efficiency metrics don't actually look at those stats. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUJoe Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, BruceDouglas said: I am far from an expert on this but makes me wonder if models like Kenpom favor offensive efficiency a bit too much. Because Ohio St has a really efficient offense, still ranked #7. And there's a bunch of stats/data you can use for offense - shooting %, 2 point %, offensive rebounds, FT %, etc. And IMO this type of data tracking relative to efficiency is pretty well understood and researched. Whereas defense doesn't really track with a bunch of stats or data, just really how much you can limit the other team on some of those same #s. Rebounds is one major stat but steals, blocked shots don't necessarily indicate good defense. Just a idle thought... One of the criticisms of entirely or mostly score-based models is that they may favor high-scoring teams because they can more easily run up a higher margin of victory. KenPom takes a lot of that perceived advantage away by adjusting for tempo and basically breaking it down to points per possession, which is what “efficiency” really is in that model. My problem with an entirely score-based or “efficiency” based model is simply this: It doesn’t give teams that just know how to win any additional credit. There is a 2-point difference between a 20-point win and a 18-point win. There is also a 2-point difference between a 1-point win and a 1-point loss. I think we’d all agree those 2-point differences aren’t equal. But the entirely score-based metrics make those differences equal on the regression line. That’s why a team like Ohio State can be 11-8 and rank so high in the NET (and I would assume also in KenPom although I haven’t looked at it lately). If you combine it with some result-based metrics, Ohio State ranks much lower. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BobSaccamanno Posted January 24, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Speaking of Purdue, I got a live shot of their trophy case 3 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
btownqb Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, 5fouls said: With the exception of Purdue. When they lose, they should be dropped to NAIA. 1 minute ago, BobSaccamanno said: Speaking of Purdue, I got a live shot of their trophy case THE #1 RULE OF THIS THREAD IS NOT TO MENTION PURDUE!!! 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purdue7 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Seriously…..when was the first time you heard of the Helms 🏆or whatever it’s called what idiot asst SID discovered it snd thought let’s brag about made up 💩 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rico Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, Purdue7 said: Seriously…..when was the first time you heard of the Helms 🏆or whatever it’s called what idiot asst SID discovered it snd thought let’s brag about made up 💩 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BruceDouglas Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, IUJoe said: One of the criticisms of entirely or mostly score-based models is that they may favor high-scoring teams because they can more easily run up a higher margin of victory. KenPom takes a lot of that perceived advantage away by adjusting for tempo and basically breaking it down to points per possession, which is what “efficiency” really is in that model. My problem with an entirely score-based or “efficiency” based model is simply this: It doesn’t give teams that just know how to win any additional credit. There is a 2-point difference between a 20-point win and a 18-point win. There is also a 2-point difference between a 1-point win and a 1-point loss. I think we’d all agree those 2-point differences aren’t equal. But the entirely score-based metrics make those differences equal on the regression line. That’s why a team like Ohio State can be 11-8 and rank so high in the NET (and I would assume also in KenPom although I haven’t looked at it lately). If you combine it with some result-based metrics, Ohio State ranks much lower. I agree with that, winning does matter and in end game situations you're going to play much differently especially in a close game. But in the end these are just models trying to come up with a way to projection results and there's always going to be some compromises made. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUJoe Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, BruceDouglas said: I agree with that, winning does matter and in end game situations you're going to play much differently especially in a close game. But in the end these are just models trying to come up with a way to projection results and there's always going to be some compromises made. That’s true. You improve one thing at the expense of another and do the best you can. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Purdue7 said: Seriously…..when was the first time you heard of the Helms 🏆or whatever it’s called what idiot asst SID discovered it snd thought let’s brag about made up 💩 The other night, my son, who thoroughly enjoys making fun of Purdue, asked the Google Assistant in our kitchen how many National Championships Purdue has. I'll be damned if the thing doesnt go into this dissertation about the Helms Championship. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said: Speaking of Purdue, I got a live shot of their trophy case Is the Helms trophy being used as a spittoon? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Purdue7 Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 (edited) Wooden was first 3 time AA Lou, Forest & Moose 🍻 Edited January 24, 2023 by Purdue7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 27 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said: Is the Helms trophy being used as a spittoon? Purdue just took the banner option... A trophy was like $2.50 more or something... 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
13th&Jackson Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 16 minutes ago, IUFLA said: Purdue just took the banner option... A trophy was like $2.50 more or something... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5fouls Posted January 24, 2023 Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Purdue7 said: Wooden was first 3 time AA Lou, Forest & Moose 🍻 Shouldn't he be assessed a technical foul for being the 6th player on the court? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Penn State at Rutgers will be an interesting one tonight... Ohio State at Illinois too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 24, 2023 Bardo doing the Penn St-Rutgers tilt... That's 3 games in 3 days... He must need the money... But at least he ain't runnin' sandwiches for Uber Eats 😮 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 The State Farm Center is a tomb tonight... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SawatchHoosier Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 14 minutes ago, IUFLA said: The State Farm Center is a tomb tonight... Not really fair to say since they aren't playing their rival tonight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SawatchHoosier said: Not really fair to say since they aren't playing their rival tonight. I'll bet Hummel has made 10 excuses for the Illini getting the crap kicked out of them by IU... Mayer sick Short rest Blah, blah, blah... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SawatchHoosier Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 Rogers missed a wide open layup because he was suffering from TJD PTSD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SawatchHoosier Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 (edited) 1 minute ago, IUFLA said: I'll bet Hummel has made 10 excuses for the Illini getting the crap kicked out of them by IU... Mayer sick Short rest Blah, blah, blah... Underwood giving Hummel a cut of that 5 million dollar overpayment Edited January 25, 2023 by SawatchHoosier 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUFLA Posted January 25, 2023 Author Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, SawatchHoosier said: Underwood giving Hummel a cut of that 5 million dollar overpayment Robbie has mentioned IU more than he has Ohio State Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrflynn03 Posted January 25, 2023 Report Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, IUFLA said: I'll bet Hummel has made 10 excuses for the Illini getting the crap kicked out of them by IU... Mayer sick Short rest Blah, blah, blah... IU living rent free in everybody's heads. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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