Weather events

[IUFLA]

[mrflynn03]

EF1 tornado hit Haysville Monday which is about 12 miles south of me. Was on the ground for almost 30 miles and ended up in Paoli.  

https://www.14news.com/2023/08/07/storms-cause-power-outages-overnight/

[Drroogh]

So last night a pretty good front moved through, the canoe was upside down on the beach and the wind got underneath and flipped it over about 4ft away! 

Today we have air quality alerts again! Apparently the Canadian wildfires are still going on?

Then looking I see Hurricane Hilary is heading right at my daughters house in Southern California?? They’ve had what 4 hurricanes in history?!?!

[Seeking6]

To the folks on here who call SoCal home be safe these next few days. I know mist causes a problem on the roads so pretty nervous for what's coming.

I know my best friend in Newport and family in Santa Barbara are bracing for the worst. Not hurricanes but the mudslides and stuff.

[Drroogh]

My daughter says they survived Hilary! All they got was rain!

[DWB]

My brother lives about 5-8 miles north of Palm Springs (as the crow flies). Says he's OK, but a major section of the main 4 lane hwy going into Palm Springs got washed out by the floods. I saw the picture and I remember the location well, as it was about ½ mile north of I-10.

I-10 was also closed in both directions. (and still is I think). Flooding continues from the run offs from the surrounding "mountains". No vegitation to slow the water momentum down. All desert sand.

Funny aside. After almost every rain/sand storm, they have to take snow plows to plow the sand off of the hwys.

[HoosierFaithful]

Scary reflection of the world how often this stuff seems to be happening.  The warming oceans temps (as reflected in the truly nutty 95+ degree temps in FL ocean water a few weeks back) are going to reshape our lives.

[Drroogh]

1 hour ago, HoosierFaithful said:

Scary reflection of the world how often this stuff seems to be happening.  The warming oceans temps (as reflected in the truly nutty 95+ degree temps in FL ocean water a few weeks back) are going to reshape our lives.

So true but I think the reasons they give us are off! I think like us the Earth is just getting older! Scary to think how bad things could get before the talking heads realize that? But hey, that’s just my opinion?

[IUFLA]

Been happening since the beginning of time...

[DWB]

IMO it's normal cycles of the earth's atmosphere. El Nino every few year, [insert your own event] every few years, elevated hurricane  activity every few years, draughts every few years, etc etc. 

Until social media, and cable news came along with 24/7 air time to fill, everything was essentially normal. Then the talking heads had to fill time on air, and the empty heads on social media made stuff up to get attention. Everything is forecasted to be far worse than it probably will be, and declared to be worse than it was based on one minute detail that gets blown out of proportion.

[FKIM01]

2 hours ago, DWB said:

IMO it's normal cycles of the earth's atmosphere. El Nino every few year, [insert your own event] every few years, elevated hurricane  activity every few years, draughts every few years, etc etc. 

Until social media, and cable news came along with 24/7 air time to fill, everything was essentially normal. Then the talking heads had to fill time on air, and the empty heads on social media made stuff up to get attention. Everything is forecasted to be far worse than it probably will be, and declared to be worse than it was based on one minute detail that gets blown out of proportion.

Without a doubt in my mind.  In the 1970's, there were pretty dire predictions of another ice age coming...

That being said, I was filling my soft drink vending machines at 9pm this evening in southern Indiana and was sweating bullets while doing little more than standing in front of an open vending machine.  A half hour later inside my climate-controlled office, I still feel sticky.  I hope football coaches are being careful with their players this week.

[Reacher]

14 hours ago, DWB said:

IMO it's normal cycles of the earth's atmosphere. El Nino every few year, [insert your own event] every few years, elevated hurricane  activity every few years, draughts every few years, etc etc. 

Until social media, and cable news came along with 24/7 air time to fill, everything was essentially normal. Then the talking heads had to fill time on air, and the empty heads on social media made stuff up to get attention. Everything is forecasted to be far worse than it probably will be, and declared to be worse than it was based on one minute detail that gets blown out of proportion.

Sensationalism is what sells. Look back at these predictions from my favorite site for climate science.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/failed-prediction-timeline/

[NotIThatLives]

Serious question.  Is there an actual increase in severity and frequency of major storms?  Or are we just more aware because we don't receive our news by a day old newspaper anymore?

[Madison22]

21 minutes ago, NotIThatLives said:

Serious question.  Is there an actual increase in severity and frequency of major storms?  Or are we just more aware because we don't receive our news by a day old newspaper anymore?

All I know is:  14,000 years ago, Madison Wi was under 2,000 feet of ice.  So I'm happy with the change, as I only have a single-stage snowblower.

This is what our July 4 used to look like:

[tdhoosier]

18 hours ago, DWB said:

IMO it's normal cycles of the earth's atmosphere. El Nino every few year, [insert your own event] every few years, elevated hurricane  activity every few years, draughts every few years, etc etc. 

Until social media, and cable news came along with 24/7 air time to fill, everything was essentially normal. Then the talking heads had to fill time on air, and the empty heads on social media made stuff up to get attention. Everything is forecasted to be far worse than it probably will be, and declared to be worse than it was based on one minute detail that gets blown out of proportion.

Based on all the nerdy podcasts I listen to, this is how I understand it:

I don't think anybody is disputing that the Earth's climate goes through cycles and there are many reasons for this. The main culprit is the Milankovitch cycle: The Earth spins like a top and rotates around the sun like a top. Therefore the axis tilts to and away from the sun every 20k or so so years. It's path around the sun elongates every (i believe) 1000,000 years, which make seasons longer or shorter. These 'Milankovitch' cycles line-up with the cycles in temperature. 

However, In each and every one of these instances, more carbon in the atmosphere correlates to higher temperatures. I don't believe this is disputed. El Nino, for example, is a result of the oceans' currents changing - this stirring of the ocean releases more carbon into the atmosphere. It's like when you stir a carbonated drink and it begins to fizz - it's a release of carbon. Carbon is also why they extract ice cores in Antartica - different depths represent periods in the Earth's history, and the amount of carbon at various depths (periods in history froze in time) is how scientist determine how warm or cold the planet has been. In fact, the data gathered from ice cores lines up almost exactly with.......*drum roll please*.....the Milankovitch cycles. 

That said, we deviated from the cycle in the last 9,000 years....according to data collected

...So what happened in the last 9,000 years? Humans. 

But hey, we need to live, right? 

I think what concerns the climatologists is that this particular spike in global temperature doesn't correspond with the cycles of the past: the timing of the spike isn't right (The Earth is currently tilted about halfway in-between the extremes in the Milankovitch cycle) and the abruptness of the spike in the last 20-30 years isn't right (Usually warming is more gradual)....even based on data from the last 9000 years. 

I think there's a lot of noise on both sides, but the main point is: how we deal with it, not that it isn't happening. I've listened to scientists who are painted 'skeptics', and it's important to point out that I don't think they are debating the high amount of carbon in the atmosphere (because it's measure-able), but to what degree of it is man-made....to what degree can humans do anything about it...to what degree policy will do anything about it...to what degree will it affect man kind....and ultimately Earth.  

[mrflynn03]

You also have things like the Tonga Volcanic eruption in 2022 that's predicted to have temporary effects on global Temps  over the next few years.  

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

Edited August 22, 2023 by mrflynn03

[Reacher]

I agree with you @tdhoosier. I think we have to question our remedies. As an electric car owner, I'm well aware that when you factor in the full lifecycle of development, they are worse for the environment than gas / diesel engines.

I've been following this controversary in the desert for years.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-11-03/the-mojave-desert-is-prime-real-estate-for-solar-power

"But even clean energy, from wind to solar to hydropower, isn’t entirely clean. More than 100,000 yucca and other plants will be destroyed during construction of Yellow Pine. This year, scientists relocated more than 100 federally protected desert tortoises from the site in preparation for construction, but about 30 of those have died, possibly eaten by badgers."

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/giant-desert-solar-farms-might-have-unintended-climate-consequences

"Turning deserts into solar energy farms could raise temperatures across the globe and cause devastating droughts in the Amazon."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/21/solar-farms-energy-power-california-mojave-desert

"Her book, The Desert Underground, features illustrated cross-sections that reveal the hidden universe of roots extended up to 150ft below the surface, supported by branching networks of fungal mycelium. “This is how we need to look at the desert,” she says, turning a diagram from her book upside-down. “It’s an underground forest – just as majestic and important as a giant redwood forest, but we can’t see it.”

The reason this root network is so valuable, she argues, because it operates as an enormous “carbon sink” where plants breathe in carbon dioxide at the surface and out underground, forming layers of sedimentary rock known as caliche. “If left undisturbed, the carbon can remain stored for thousands of years,’” she says.

Desert plants are some of the oldest carbon-capturers around: Mojave yuccas can be up to 2,500 years old, while the humble creosote bush can live for over 10,000 years. These plants also sequester carbon in the form of glomalin, a protein secreted around the fungal threads connected to the plants’ roots, thought to store a third of the world’s soil carbon. “By digging these plants up,” says Kobaly, “we are removing the most efficient carbon sequestration units on the planet – and releasing millennia of stored carbon back into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the solar panels we are replacing them with have a lifespan of around 25 years.”"

 

The fires in Maui may have been prevented if Hawaiian Electric had focused more on fire mitigation efforts instead of the race to go "green". Free WSJ link- https://archive.vn/ur8dS

“You have to look at the scope and scale of the transformation within [Hawaiian Electric] that was occurring throughout the system,” said Mina Morita, who chaired the state utilities commission from 2011 to 2015. “While there was concern for wildfire risk, politically the focus was on electricity generation.” 

The drive to reach the renewable goals also preoccupied private energy companies working with Hawaiian Electric and state energy officials, said Doug McLeod, a consultant who served for several years as the Maui county energy commissioner. 

“Looking back with hindsight, the business opportunities were on the generation side, and the utility was going out for bid with all these big renewable-energy projects,” he said. “But in retrospect, it seems clear, we weren’t as focused on these fire risks as we should have been.”

 

I think rushing to find a solution is likely causing more harm than good and exacerbating the problem.

[tdhoosier]

7 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

You also have things like the Tonga Valcanic eruption in 2022 that's predicted to have temporary effects on global Temps  over the next few years.  

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3204/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/

i barfed out a bunch of text and then edited it down because it was detouring from the main point. But i was going to start getting into the climate effects of volcano ash covering huge portions of the globe blocking out sunlight, asteriods, etc. 

Funny enough I was listening to a podcast about Milankovitch a few weeks ago. Just found it interesting to how he observed the cyclical nature of ice ages, which started his theory. The 'natural' ice ages (natural to the cycles) occurred when the Earth's path around the sun was elongated (more oval), which was caused by the gravitational force of Jupiter. I forget now, but the perfect angle and orbit for iceage conditions happens about every 400,000 years. 

[tdhoosier]

12 minutes ago, Reacher said:

I agree with you @tdhoosier. I think we have to question our remedies. As an electric car owner, I'm well aware that when you factor in the full lifecycle of development, they are worse for the environment than gas / diesel engines.

I've been following this controversary in the desert for years.

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2021-11-03/the-mojave-desert-is-prime-real-estate-for-solar-power

"But even clean energy, from wind to solar to hydropower, isn’t entirely clean. More than 100,000 yucca and other plants will be destroyed during construction of Yellow Pine. This year, scientists relocated more than 100 federally protected desert tortoises from the site in preparation for construction, but about 30 of those have died, possibly eaten by badgers."

https://www.greenbiz.com/article/giant-desert-solar-farms-might-have-unintended-climate-consequences

"Turning deserts into solar energy farms could raise temperatures across the globe and cause devastating droughts in the Amazon."

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/may/21/solar-farms-energy-power-california-mojave-desert

"Her book, The Desert Underground, features illustrated cross-sections that reveal the hidden universe of roots extended up to 150ft below the surface, supported by branching networks of fungal mycelium. “This is how we need to look at the desert,” she says, turning a diagram from her book upside-down. “It’s an underground forest – just as majestic and important as a giant redwood forest, but we can’t see it.”

The reason this root network is so valuable, she argues, because it operates as an enormous “carbon sink” where plants breathe in carbon dioxide at the surface and out underground, forming layers of sedimentary rock known as caliche. “If left undisturbed, the carbon can remain stored for thousands of years,’” she says.

Desert plants are some of the oldest carbon-capturers around: Mojave yuccas can be up to 2,500 years old, while the humble creosote bush can live for over 10,000 years. These plants also sequester carbon in the form of glomalin, a protein secreted around the fungal threads connected to the plants’ roots, thought to store a third of the world’s soil carbon. “By digging these plants up,” says Kobaly, “we are removing the most efficient carbon sequestration units on the planet – and releasing millennia of stored carbon back into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, the solar panels we are replacing them with have a lifespan of around 25 years.”"

 

The fires in Maui may have been prevented if Hawaiian Electric had focused more on fire mitigation efforts instead of the race to go "green". Free WSJ link- https://archive.vn/ur8dS

“You have to look at the scope and scale of the transformation within [Hawaiian Electric] that was occurring throughout the system,” said Mina Morita, who chaired the state utilities commission from 2011 to 2015. “While there was concern for wildfire risk, politically the focus was on electricity generation.” 

The drive to reach the renewable goals also preoccupied private energy companies working with Hawaiian Electric and state energy officials, said Doug McLeod, a consultant who served for several years as the Maui county energy commissioner. 

“Looking back with hindsight, the business opportunities were on the generation side, and the utility was going out for bid with all these big renewable-energy projects,” he said. “But in retrospect, it seems clear, we weren’t as focused on these fire risks as we should have been.”

 

I think rushing to find a solution is likely causing more harm than good and exacerbating the problem.

Definitely a lot more questions than answers. And many times we are looking for the less destructive of multiple options. And definitely a lot of industry spin. 

I think the long term answer for energy is renewable, but it has drawbacks in the short-term. I do think we need to keep on working on it. We have an unlimited source of energy in the sun, i can't imagine we're too far away from learning how to harness and store that energy. By 'too far' I don't necessarily mean in our lifetime, but technology and scientific understanding do grow exponentially as we humans get more advanced. 

On another note did you see what cool thing those dorks at Purdue did? Maybe they can paint the solar panels with that white paint. haha. 

[HoosierFaithful]

learning a lot, folks, thanks for sharing!x

[jv1972iu]

If the climate doesn't change and kill humankind, then I figure AI will.  Either way, I'm not concerned because I'm 73, no kids, no grandkids, no pets...no problemas!   What, me worry?   Nope!   😋

[Drroogh]

26 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Definitely a lot more questions than answers. And many times we are looking for the less destructive of multiple options. And definitely a lot of industry spin. 

I think the long term answer for energy is renewable, but it has drawbacks in the short-term. I do think we need to keep on working on it. We have an unlimited source of energy in the sun, i can't imagine we're too far away from learning how to harness and store that energy. By 'too far' I don't necessarily mean in our lifetime, but technology and scientific understanding do grow exponentially as we humans get more advanced. 

 

Decades ago my father a chief electrical engineer for NIPSCO hypothesized the idea of building solar farms in space and then sending the electricity back to Earth via microwave?!?!

I’m going to hypothesize with all the rivers in the world dumping silt, minerals and salts into the ocean continuously, how does that affect the salinity of the oceans? Doesn’t saline store more solar energy than distilled water? Making the oceans a huge battery? Becoming more efficient daily?

lot’s to think about besides just fossil fuels!?

[IUFLA]

2 hours ago, Reacher said:

I think rushing to find a solution is likely causing more harm than good and exacerbating the problem.

 

1 hour ago, tdhoosier said:

I think the long term answer for energy is renewable, but it has drawbacks in the short-term.

And there's the argument in a nutshell...

I think ALL of us want renewable, clean energy eventually...But without a pragmatic approach that takes all of our citizens into consideration, it's going to be endless talking points, half truths, and outright lies that are going to guide the way forward... 

[DWB]

1 hour ago, IUFLA said:

 

I think ALL of us want renewable, clean energy eventually...But without a pragmatic approach that takes all of our citizens into consideration, it's going to be endless talking points, half truths, and outright lies that are going to guide the way forward... 

And the gov't should stay the hell out of picking the winners and losers by subsidizing their preferred source of energy. Let the free market decide. Get rid of ALL subsidies, including Oil, Wind, Batteries, tax breaks, tax incentives to purchase, etc.

 

[Drroogh]

2 hours ago, IUFLA said:

 

And there's the argument in a nutshell...

I think ALL of us want renewable, clean energy eventually...But without a pragmatic approach that takes all of our citizens into consideration, it's going to be endless talking points, half truths, and outright lies that are going to guide the way forward... 

crazy thing is I just finished watching the movie “Don’t Look Up” speaks worlds to all of this.