Coronavirus

[Proud2BAHoosier]

1 hour ago, mrflynn03 said:

Hopefully people will wake up and realize government is not the solution.  Private industry is more efficient and should grow a pair and flip the bird to the FDA.  The first positive test we had was because a test was developed independently and done without government approval. 

And yet the administration did just that by incorporating many companies in this fight. Ford, GM, 3M, LILY and many others just to name a few.....

[tdhoosier]

Continuing my role as a wet blanket....

At the end of February I listened to a podcast with Donald McNeil who's a science a health reporter. Listening to him is what initially worried me about COVID19. Back then he was talking about cities shutting down, when I didn't that could possibly happen here. He's been on the forefront with many of his prognostications. I shared that podcast with IUFLA a couple of weeks ago. He wasn't exactly right, but he was pretty darn close...at least about how we'd respond as a country. 

Well (gulp), he just gave another interview on The Daily today which is both informative and sobering. I'm sharing this, hoping you don't write him off as an alarmist. Like I said, he was right about many of the things that happened since February. I hope he's wrong. I know he hopes he's wrong. But we could be in for quite the ride. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000472047223

 

[5fouls]

3 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Continuing my role as a wet blanket....

At the end of February I listened to a podcast with Donald McNeil who's a science a health reporter. Listening to him is what initially worried me about COVID19. Back then he was talking about cities shutting down, when I didn't that could possibly happen here. He's been on the forefront with many of his prognostications. I shared that podcast with IUFLA a couple of weeks ago. He wasn't exactly right, but he was pretty darn close...at least about how we'd respond as a country. 

Well (gulp), he just gave another interview on The Daily today which is both informative and sobering. I'm sharing this, hoping you don't write him off as an alarmist. Like I said, he was right about many of the things that happened since February. I hope he's wrong. I know he hopes he's wrong. But we could be in for quite the ride. 

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000472047223

 

Can you summarize what he said?  

[mrflynn03]

20 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Can you summarize what he said?  

Basically, he suggests having rolling lockdowns and opening the economy from time to time until 2021.  

[tdhoosier]

30 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

Can you summarize what he said?  

-He goes in to the obvious, flattening the curve means slowing the spread. Just because we have a downturn is cases doesn't mean that the virus is gone. We are most likely going to be going through intermittent, controllable waves of social distancing for a while

-Most accurate estimates say that 3% of the population has had it. Best case scenario without vaccine, if the infected develop and sustain immunities, the virus wouldn't die out until we reach 70% infected because the virus simply will have a hard time finding a host without antibodies at that point. 

-The record for bringing a vaccine to market was for the mumps - and that took 4 years.

-Despite the hopeful articles being posted, there is zero reliable research that shows it going away (or into hibernation) in the summer. If this was the case it wouldn't be spreading it's way through countries with warm climates now.  

-Even if we can bring a vaccination to market quickly there's going to be a huge hurdle in getting it manufactured and distributed to the entire world. Even if the US gets first dibs, we'd need 300 million vaccines. The largest amount of vaccine produced in a year is 8 million (for comparison's sake).

-If above holds true, he talks about a new reality where people with antibodies are more valuable because they can't get infected. They're already in high demand so we can analyze their blood. But they can also help out in ICU's without fear of getting infected, for example. Plus they'll be able to go back to work and lead a normal like quicker than others. Because of this he speculates about people getting infected on purpose like we did when we were young, having "chicken pox parties". 

Edited April 20, 2020 by tdhoosier

[5fouls]

7 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

-He goes in to the obvious, flattening the curve means slowing the spread. Just because we have a downturn is cases doesn't mean that the virus is gone. We are most likely going to be going through intermittent, controllable waves of social distancing for a while

-Most accurate estimates say that 3% of the population has had it. Best case scenario without vaccine, if the infected develop and sustain immunities, the virus wouldn't die out until we reach 70% infected because the virus simply will have a hard time finding a host without antibodies at that point. 

-The record for bringing a vaccine to market was for the mumps - and that took 4 years.

-Despite the hopeful articles being posted, there is zero reliable research that shows it going away (or into hibernation) in the summer. If this was the case it wouldn't be spreading it's way through countries with warm climates now.  

-Even if we can bring a vaccination to market quickly there's going to be a huge hurdle in getting it manufactured and distributed to the entire world. Even if the US gets first dibs, we'd need 300 million vaccines. The largest amount of vaccine produced in a year is 8 million (for comparison's sake).

-If above holds true, he talks about a new reality where people with antibodies are more valuable because they can't get infected. They're already in high demand so we can analyze their blood. But they can help out in ICU's without fear of getting infected. Plus they'll be able to go back to work and lead a normal like quicker than others. Because of this he speculates about people getting infected on purpose like we did when were little having chicken pox parties. 

With so many unsymptomatic people testing positive, it would not surprise me if the number of people infected exceeds 3%, especially in the hard hit countries.  

And, while it may be spreading through countries with warm climates, it does not seem to be spreading as quickly.  This seems to be the case even within the U.S.   Otherwise, Florida, with their large retirement age population base, would be right up there near the top of deaths.  It's not.   I still think there is legit reason to believe it will, at the least, hibernate during the summer.   

[mrflynn03]

On 4/16/2020 at 9:40 AM, mrflynn03 said:

https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/

https://abc11.com/antibody-test-new-normal-covid-19-first-responders/6106497/

2 questions I have are

Does the low % of positive antibody testing mean a large % of the population might not even be susceptible to the virus?

Or does it mean a lack of exposure and the measures we are taking will seriously prolong this? 

I wouldn't normally requote myself but there is this. 

[tdhoosier]

11 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

With so many unsymptomatic people testing positive, it would not surprise me if the number of people infected exceeds 3%, especially in the hard hit countries.  

And, while it may be spreading through countries with warm climates, it does not seem to be spreading as quickly.  This seems to be the case even within the U.S.   Otherwise, Florida, with their large retirement age population base, would be right up there near the top of deaths.  It's not.   I still think there is legit reason to believe it will, at the least, hibernate during the summer.   

Hope that’s the case. He did say he’s heard it could be as high as 10% but doesn’t think that estimation is accurate. 

I think we may be mixing infection rate and severity of symptoms. I think people’s immune systems are strong in warmer climates because they naturally get more vitamin D from the sun. So, while they may be infected, they’re able to fight it off better? I’m completely talking out of my a**, just a theory - I’m definitely no expert. 

My summarization doesn’t do justice. I still do recommend listening; it’s only 15-20 minutes. 

[mrflynn03]

3 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Hope that’s the case. He did say he’s heard it could be as high as 10% but doesn’t think that estimation is accurate. 

I think we may be mixing infection rate and severity of symptoms. I think people’s immune systems are strong in warmer climates because they naturally get more vitamin D from the sun. So, while they may be infected, they’re able to fight it off better? I’m completely talking out of my a**, just a theory - I’m definitely no expert. 

My summarization doesn’t do justice. I still do recommend listening; it’s only 15-20 minutes. 

Viruses dont survive well in hot humid environments.  There is a gel layer made up of fats and lipids that protect the cell wall. Heat breaks that layer down. 

That said, we dont know yet how heat affects this virus. Hopefully heat will tame it. 

[Lostin76]

4 minutes ago, tdhoosier said:

Hope that’s the case. He did say he’s heard it could be as high as 10% but doesn’t think that estimation is accurate. 

I think we may be mixing infection rate and severity of symptoms. I think people’s immune systems are strong in warmer climates because they naturally get more vitamin D from the sun. So, while they may be infected, they’re able to fight it off better? I’m completely talking out of my a**, just a theory - I’m definitely no expert. 

My summarization doesn’t do justice. I still do recommend listening; it’s only 15-20 minutes. 

I think the gist of his talk was in the article from the NYT over the weekend - all about what the next year (or two) will look like. I started listening to it, but was same points.

The summary of it (I think), is that it's going to be a slog. Probably a longer slog than any of us will like, but to skip steps or try to rush things just makes it that much worse. There does not seem to be any magic bullets or shortcuts at this point.

[5fouls]

Well, at this point even the skeptics among us have to hope that psychic Sylvia Browne was correct in her prediction.  Hoping this is one that defies conventional science.

Posted this earlier in the thread, but thought it was worth posting again since we're all grasping for straws at this point.  

 

[mrflynn03]

2 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

I think the gist of his talk was in the article from the NYT over the weekend - all about what the next year (or two) will look like. I started listening to it, but was same points.

The summary of it (I think), is that it's going to be a slog. Probably a longer slog than any of us will like, but to skip steps or try to rush things just makes it that much worse. There does not seem to be any magic bullets or shortcuts at this point.

How long can we let this go on?  I completely understand, I guess, what you are going through. I have no problem sending supplies or myself if I could help. But we can't shut the country down over a few hot spots.

I'm just saying I've been to NYC, Jersey, Rhode Island?. Why cant I pump my own gas?

[Lostin76]

13 minutes ago, mrflynn03 said:

How long can we let this go on?  I completely understand, I guess, what you are going through. I have no problem sending supplies or myself if I could help. But we can't shut the country down over a few hot spots.

I'm just saying I've been to NYC, Jersey, Rhode Island?. Why cant I pump my own gas?

We pump our own gas in NYC. I have to drive through NJ (on the Turnpike) to get to our place in Maryland, and I refuse to get gas in NJ. Can't stand letting someone else pump my gas and then have to give them a tip. I'm totally with you there!

I just don't think we can know how long and what places can open up earlier. It's obviously different where I grew up in Gibson County, IN where they have only 5 active cases and then here in Brooklyn where we have 37,000 active cases. We can't obviously just do blanket openings. I really don't envy the decision makers in this time.

[Drroogh]

Well, I guess I get to move to the front of the NEW battle ground! Georgia just announced that starting Friday they will start reopening the State. Almost positive our plant of formerly 100's of workers will open again Tuesday. Albeit with some safety conditions! I'm in the danger zone being 66, but I'm Okay with it! I'm ecstatic that our line workers are going to be back at work! They are sorely underpaid and have to be on life support financially!

Times will be different after all of this, and as sick as this may sound I'm actually ready to go into the mix of the next battle!

Whish everyone well!

[5fouls]

So, am I hearing this correctly,  You are not allowed to pump your own gas in New Jersey?  

[IUFLA]

6 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

So, am I hearing this correctly,  You are not allowed to pump your own gas in New Jersey?  

That is correct...if you get out of your car at a filling station in Jersey, someone will tell you to get back in your car...

I go to Atlantic City about 4 times a year for business...the running joke with people from Jersey is, when someone from another state asks why they can't pump their own gas is, "Because f you, that's why."

Even the women...cracks me up every time...

Edited April 20, 2020 by IUFLA

[Lostin76]

13 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

So, am I hearing this correctly,  You are not allowed to pump your own gas in New Jersey?  

It's bonkers. I hate driving through NJ for many reasons, but this is number one.

[5fouls]

That's crazy.  I can honestly say it's probably been 30 years since I had someone pump my gas.  

[Lostin76]

Just now, 5fouls said:

That's crazy.  I can honestly say it's probably been 30 years since I had someone pump my gas.  

It's so uncomfortable. You have to give them your credit card and everything. There's also the endless chitchat. I'm on a four hour trip from hell from NYC to the Eastern Shore, the last thing I want to do is have a conversation with someone and break my driving flow.

[milehiiu]

26 minutes ago, 5fouls said:

So, am I hearing this correctly,  You are not allowed to pump your own gas in New Jersey?  

IUFLA is correct. Not being able to pump your own gas in NJ.  Only state in the nation. Though a few years ago, there were some cities in the U.S. that were the same. Don't know if that is still the case.

[Drroogh]

3 minutes ago, Lostin76 said:

It's so uncomfortable. You have to give them your credit card and everything. There's also the endless chitchat. I'm on a four hour trip from hell from NYC to the Eastern Shore, the last thing I want to do is have a conversation with someone and break my driving flow.

Yeah, Yeah, I've been there in states that don't allow you to pump your own gas!  SO WHAT! I used to supervise a department of UAW employees that had three of the top ten seniority employees on a campus of 2700! 

What is pissing me off, is that in a thread about Coronavirus, you all have just blown by my announcement that I am now at the forefront of the next battle! I'm going back to work Tuesday as a 66 year old, and I am ecstatic about it! Not for me, but for my friends on the line that must be on life support financially!

Praying it all works out for the best my friends! 

[Lostin76]

2 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Yeah, Yeah, I've been there in states that don't allow you to pump your own gas!  SO WHAT! I used to supervise a department of UAW employees that had three of the top ten seniority employees on a campus of 2700! 

What is pissing me off, is that in a thread about Coronavirus, you all have just blown by my announcement that I am now at the forefront of the next battle! I'm going back to work Tuesday as a 66 year old, and I am ecstatic about it! Not for me, but for my friends on the line that must be on life support financially!

Praying it all works out for the best my friends! 

Wait, what?Okay, I just scrolled up and am realizing that you live in GA. So it's back to work for everyone there it looks like according to latest reports. I'm not sure this is going to end well. Especially since Kemp didn't even realize the virus could be spread by asymptomatic people.

Do you know for sure that you have to go back and if so, what protections are they taking?

[Joe_Hoopsier]

4 minutes ago, Drroogh said:

Yeah, Yeah, I've been there in states that don't allow you to pump your own gas!  SO WHAT! I used to supervise a department of UAW employees that had three of the top ten seniority employees on a campus of 2700! 

What is pissing me off, is that in a thread about Coronavirus, you all have just blown by my announcement that I am now at the forefront of the next battle! I'm going back to work Tuesday as a 66 year old, and I am ecstatic about it! Not for me, but for my friends on the line that must be on life support financially!

Praying it all works out for the best my friends! 

So you’re willing to take one for the team, that takes guts. You know that it’s about more than any individual, I celebrate and thank you! If only more people would think like you, thank you for your sacrifice sir. 

[Drroogh]

1 minute ago, Lostin76 said:

Wait, what?Okay, I just scrolled up and am realizing that you live in GA. So it's back to work for everyone there it looks like according to latest reports. I'm not sure this is going to end well. Especially since Kemp didn't even realize the virus could be spread by asymptomatic people.

Do you know for sure that you have to go back and if so, what protections are they taking?

So, our plants last announcement as it has been all through this, they are following Governance. The last scheduled plant opening, ( which has changed weekly, we would open 4/27/2020)!

After today, it is almost guaranteed to open Tuesday the 27th! There will be enhanced protections like everyone gets their temperature checked before entering and there will be a plant wide sterilization prior. There will also be enforcements I'm sure of distancing and safety, but yeah I guarantee we go back to work Tuesday!

[5fouls]

Georgia is the wrong state to be the pace setter for re-opening.  Their numbers simply are not that good.  And, they have not tested that many compared to other states with similar populations.