2023 NFL Discussion

[KoB2011]

14 hours ago, dgambill said:

That’s because reporters don’t have pressure to take a qb and fix the team this year. Most GMs don’t have the luxury of waiting for a better option or sucking enough to draft a qb. You typically get one shot at it. You such multiple years and still haven’t addressed qb you are out of a job. Mock drafts are irrelevant.

Getting the wrong QB is worse than not getting a QB. Both probably lose you your job though. 

[DC2345]

14 hours ago, IU Scott said:

ESPN 2 is having a mock draft right now with reporters from each team selecting for that team. I'm this mock it had Levis falling to 19 to TB. I see no way he would ever fall that far.

 

 

One thing to keep in mind is that not all of the QB's will go as high as many think. 1 or 2 will likely fall out of the top 8 because that seems to be what happens every year. Everyone thinks 3 or 4 QB's will go in the top 10 and it just never seems to happen. 

[Seeking6]

Merrill Hoge was on DP earlier today and he was bringing up a point that honestly I just didn't realize how much it impacted the game. He was talking about Will Levis when he made this comment. He said the differences in hash marks between Saturday and Sunday is night and day difference.

NFL plays in the middle where college plays on outside because of the hashmarks, He mentioned the tape he's watched of Levis doesn't make him a good middle of the field player. Surprisingly he said CJ Stroud is his only round 1 grade for QB and it's because of his ability to play in the middle/pocket,etc....

[IU Scott]

56 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Merrill Hoge was on DP earlier today and he was bringing up a point that honestly I just didn't realize how much it impacted the game. He was talking about Will Levis when he made this comment. He said the differences in hash marks between Saturday and Sunday is night and day difference.

NFL plays in the middle where college plays on outside because of the hashmarks, He mentioned the tape he's watched of Levis doesn't make him a good middle of the field player. Surprisingly he said CJ Stroud is his only round 1 grade for QB and it's because of his ability to play in the middle/pocket,etc....

I heard that as well.

[dgambill]

8 hours ago, btownqb said:

Daniel Jones in college.. but he completed 67% of his passes last season... 

 

With probably a worse receiving core than Justin Fields.
 

He also played for the same coach that was largely responsible for Josh Allen’s improvement. No coincidence I’m sure. 

[dgambill]

6 hours ago, KoB2011 said:

Getting the wrong QB is worse than not getting a QB. Both probably lose you your job though. 

Depends on how quickly you identify your mistake and are able to correct it…but yes you end up at the bottom of the league and have the wrong qb on your draft record for sure you are probably out of a job. Most don’t get two swings at it. That said you only get so long to right the ship. You need to identify a target or have a plan.

[KoB2011]

52 minutes ago, dgambill said:

Depends on how quickly you identify your mistake and are able to correct it…but yes you end up at the bottom of the league and have the wrong qb on your draft record for sure you are probably out of a job. Most don’t get two swings at it. That said you only get so long to right the ship. You need to identify a target or have a plan.

There’s a pretty small number of examples of bad teams missing on the highly drafted QB and successfully recovering from that. A high first round pick is a big asset to throw away. 

[IU Scott]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Depends on how quickly you identify your mistake and are able to correct it…but yes you end up at the bottom of the league and have the wrong qb on your draft record for sure you are probably out of a job. Most don’t get two swings at it. That said you only get so long to right the ship. You need to identify a target or have a plan.

It also depends on the players you passed up when missing on your QB. I would rather pick Anderson who could be a guy who will be all pro over a QB that you aren't sold on.

Edited April 26, 2023 by IU Scott

[Seeking6]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

With probably a worse receiving core than Justin Fields.
 

He also played for the same coach that was largely responsible for Josh Allen’s improvement. No coincidence I’m sure. 

Ken Dorsey was the main guy in Allen's development....

[KoB2011]

24 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Ken Dorsey was the main guy in Allen's development....

How do you figure? Most people credit Daboll and the small regression from Allen this year without him seems to support that…

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, KoB2011 said:

There’s a pretty small number of examples of bad teams missing on the highly drafted QB and successfully recovering from that. A high first round pick is a big asset to throw away. 

Yeah for sure. Arizona picked back to back qbs Rosen and Murray but like you said that really set them back. I know Minnesota took Ponder and then followed up with Bridgewater a couple years later…but he wasn’t the answer either. Jets have had Darnold and Wilson pretty quickly but have still put together a good roster and now pivoted to Rodgers…certainly difficult but key is not double down on a bad pick and not admit your mistake and move on when you know it won’t work.

[dgambill]

2 hours ago, IU Scott said:

It also depends on the players you passed up when missing on your QB. I would rather pick Anderson who could be a guy who will be all pro over a QB that you aren't sold on.

Some reason I’m not 100% sure on Anderson…I do think he will be good but not sure he is somehow a lock to be some all-pro. Can’t really put my finger on it. But I agree…even more so to not pass up on the right qb later because you already selected one previously. Like say we take Levis this year but he is showing character issues and leadership issues and we are high up again next year. Don’t double down and stick with him if the better prospect like Williams ect is there…don’t pass up great because we have to admit we messed up on the last one. Admit we screwed up and pivot immediately.

Edited April 27, 2023 by dgambill

[dgambill]

53 minutes ago, KoB2011 said:

How do you figure? Most people credit Daboll and the small regression from Allen this year without him seems to support that…

He has been the qb coach and came in after Allen’s rookie year I believe. I’m certian it was a whole team thing. Didn’t hurt they also brought in the at the time perhaps 1A or 1b best wr in football too. Main thing is that Deibold certainly is a great offensive coach and absolutely has played a part in not just teaching and coaching but play calling which probably is the biggest part.

[Steubenhoosier]

1 hour ago, dgambill said:

Yeah for sure. Arizona picked back to back qbs Rosen and Murray but like you said that really set them back. I know Minnesota took Ponder and then followed up with Bridgewater a couple years later…but he wasn’t the answer either. Jets have had Darnold and Wilson pretty quickly but have still put together a good roster and now pivoted to Rodgers…certainly difficult but key is not double down on a bad pick and not admit your mistake and move on when you know it won’t work.

Yes, but in today’s world it doesn’t have to be through the draft. 
The Browns went through a revolving door of quarterbacks and I feel confident that this upcoming season will see them have much stronger play from Watson, like it or not, as the rust of not playing dissolves.

LAR won a Super Bowl by getting Stafford, not via the draft.

NY Jets stand to have a major upgrade from the last couple of years, even if Rodgers is on the down side of his career.

Point being, making a mistake in the draft isn’t a career ender, as long as the decision makers look at all avenues to upgrade.

[dgambill]

1 hour ago, Steubenhoosier said:

Yes, but in today’s world it doesn’t have to be through the draft. 
The Browns went through a revolving door of quarterbacks and I feel confident that this upcoming season will see them have much stronger play from Watson, like it or not, as the rust of not playing dissolves.

LAR won a Super Bowl by getting Stafford, not via the draft.

NY Jets stand to have a major upgrade from the last couple of years, even if Rodgers is on the down side of his career.

Point being, making a mistake in the draft isn’t a career ender, as long as the decision makers look at all avenues to upgrade.

Yep. Our GM has made two poor decisions costing us valuable draft compensation for qbs who have both failed miserably. Now he likely will be on his 3rd chance. This is all because he has drafted well and developed a solid team outside that component…but certainly time is running out. At this point it’s no different than what those other teams have suffered from. It’s just the opposite. They’ve made mistakes in the draft and have decided to go out and solve it by bringing in a veteren (but they built good teams to surround those veteren qbs). We’ve failed with the veterans qbs we brought in and now are hoping to save us with a draft pick. Either way this is Ballards likely last chance so he needs to get it right or if not have the guts to pivot quickly.

Edited April 27, 2023 by dgambill

[13th&Jackson]

10 hours ago, dgambill said:

Yep. Our GM has made two poor decisions costing us valuable draft compensation for qbs who have both failed miserably. Now he likely will be on his 3rd chance. This is all because he has drafted well and developed a solid team outside that component…but certainly time is running out. At this point it’s no different than what those other teams have suffered from. It’s just the opposite. They’ve made mistakes in the draft and have decided to go out and solve it by bringing in a veteren (but they built good teams to surround those veteren qbs). We’ve failed with the veterans qbs we brought in and now are hoping to save us with a draft pick. Either way this is Ballards likely last chance so he needs to get it right or if not have the guts to pivot quickly.

So, given that, does Ballard take a flyer on Anthony Richardson as some mock drafts project? Or does he go with Leviis as the “safe” pick. This assumes Young and Stroud are gone. 

[NotIThatLives]

2 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

So, given that, does Ballard take a flyer on Anthony Richardson as some mock drafts project? Or does he go with Leviis as the “safe” pick. This assumes Young and Stroud are gone. 

Day of with zero football sense, I'm leaning Richardson.   Highest ceiling guy?

[rico]

7 minutes ago, 13th&Jackson said:

So, given that, does Ballard take a flyer on Anthony Richardson as some mock drafts project? Or does he go with Leviis as the “safe” pick. This assumes Young and Stroud are gone. 

There are plenty of pundits out there saying that Stroud is gonna drop because of his Stargate-SG2 test.  

[KoB2011]

13 hours ago, dgambill said:

Yeah for sure. Arizona picked back to back qbs Rosen and Murray but like you said that really set them back. I know Minnesota took Ponder and then followed up with Bridgewater a couple years later…but he wasn’t the answer either. Jets have had Darnold and Wilson pretty quickly but have still put together a good roster and now pivoted to Rodgers…certainly difficult but key is not double down on a bad pick and not admit your mistake and move on when you know it won’t work.

So Arizona is a terrible organization.

The Jets changed GMs between Darnold and Wilson (which was my point).

Vikings got a new GM shortly after Ponder, before drafting Teddy.

If you draft the wrong QB, you aren't going to survive as a GM. 

[BobSaccamanno]

The draft seems pretty weak to me at the top but nicely deep in the middle rounds.  All of the QB’s have significant warts.  I don’t know what to make of Levis.  He looks like a stiff and he’s made a ton of mistakes.   But he sure looks good getting off the bus and he’s got a solid arm.   Might be Jay Cutler but could be an Allen.   If he goes second, that would be fascinating.  

There might be some really good intrigue tonight.  

[Seeking6]

3 hours ago, BobSaccamanno said:

The draft seems pretty weak to me at the top but nicely deep in the middle rounds.  All of the QB’s have significant warts.  I don’t know what to make of Levis.  He looks like a stiff and he’s made a ton of mistakes.   But he sure looks good getting off the bus and he’s got a solid arm.   Might be Jay Cutler but could be an Allen.   If he goes second, that would be fascinating.  

There might be some really good intrigue tonight.  

I'm expecting some chaos but the draft history says huge moves from say 10 on won't jump into the top 3 or 4. Everything begins with Houston...assuming Carolina makes Young their first pick. Now if for some reason Carolina goes a different direction (Levis) besides being foolish and making the Bears haul even bigger.....Houston might be forced into a situation where they say hey we can't let Young go.

I feel like Houston is almost expecting to be the worst team in NFL again and get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye so would it make sense to grab one of the 2 stud defenders now and build QB next year? 

[Seeking6]

Lamar Jackson and Ravens get their deal done. Curious what the final numbers will be.

[KoB2011]

49 minutes ago, Seeking6 said:

Lamar Jackson and Ravens get their deal done. Curious what the final numbers will be.

5/$260m with $185m guaranteed.

Looks like Lamar was more than right to wait it out  

 

[IU Scott]

2 hours ago, Seeking6 said:

I'm expecting some chaos but the draft history says huge moves from say 10 on won't jump into the top 3 or 4. Everything begins with Houston...assuming Carolina makes Young their first pick. Now if for some reason Carolina goes a different direction (Levis) besides being foolish and making the Bears haul even bigger.....Houston might be forced into a situation where they say hey we can't let Young go.

I feel like Houston is almost expecting to be the worst team in NFL again and get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye so would it make sense to grab one of the 2 stud defenders now and build QB next year? 

I am pretty much to the point where I am going to have to like Will Levis because I feel he will be drafted by the Colts

Panthers Young 

Texans Anderson

Cardinals trade to Tennessee Stroud 

Colts Levis 

[KoB2011]

5 minutes ago, IU Scott said:

I am pretty much to the point where I am going to have to like Will Levis because I feel he will be drafted by the Colts

Panthers Young 

Texans Anderson

Cardinals trade to Tennessee Stroud 

Colts Levis 

I think we will take Richardson.

EDIT: assuming Stroud and Young are gone. 

Edited April 27, 2023 by KoB2011